Grandich’s Blog

Please Note - I will be interviewed live on Korelin Radio tomorrow at 3:30PM DST. I also will be live on Blog talk radio Tuesday at 10AM DST.

If memory serves me, today mark’s the beginning of the return to happier times. Wasn’t the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on Wall Street wildly predicting a recovery starting in the second half of 09? Didn’t CNBC-TV tell us these (cup is always half-full) soothsayers saw green shoots turning into beautiful roses? So why not just kick back, fire up the old barbecue (which only has six payments left) invite the neighbors over (just remove the mortgage delinquent notices from your table), even those who have had to move to losing their jobs, homes, etc., and turn on the TV and watch your President tell you how wonderful things are going to be if you all just simply follow him (I understand he has a new teleprompter for the second half).

U.S. Stock Market – Poor “happy” people. Their July 4th holiday weekend was turned upside down by of all things – reality. How dare something called “unemployment” ruin fantasies of green shoots for everyone. The audacity of people actually realizing a teleprompter can only take you so far. Didn’t they get the memo?

I must admit, I’m extremely frustrated that the investing public gets absolutely annihilated by so-called professional advisors whose very job was to protect from the disaster that has now crippled them, only to continue buying into their pied-piper analogies that have no real legitimacy of chance. Would the public go back for another operation by a doctor who crippled them the first time? Would they still use an attorney who was supposed to protect them but instead cost them their freedom? Of course not so why then do they stay with advisors who failed them at the most critical time?

One of the hardest things for humans to do is to change. When you combine that with another terrible fault – unable to admit fault, you can begin to understand why so many investors still are pretty much situated they way they were before the disaster of the century unfolded (at least those who still have something left to pray for a miracle over).

As it becomes more evident that there was no new bull market born but rather just another bull fantasy spun to benefit the spinners, the secular bear market will do what it always does, inflict more and more pain until enough people truly throw in the towel (if they have even a towel left at that point).

I’m delighted to have provided ample profit opportunities and to be on the sidelines cashed up and stress-free. Don’t let all that money cause an itch for action. The world would kill to be in our place and may end up having to if things get as bad as some say.

Oil – Now that we got our close below $68, my target of oil back in the 50s has moved up several notches. Don’t expect a rapid decline but I do think those who implemented bearish call spreads on oil and oil equities are now sitting pretty.

U.S. Dollar – Poor old Uncle Sam. It wasn’t that many years ago that the Fourth of July would make him beat his chest, raise his head high and march down main street USA with pride. The day would be topped off with fireworks only many towns can’t afford them and have canceled fireworks shows. The one country with “real” money continues to call for putting old Uncle Sam out to pasture. Me? I think of only one song now when contemplating the dollar’s future.

Gold – Funny how the $940 area is aggressively sold every time it’s hit. I continue to believe one refrains from any new gold purchases until we can stay above $940 for at least a few days. Once we do, $1,000+ becomes a question of when, not if.

Bonds – I would be very concern about holding most types of bonds going forward. Besides an eventual spike up in interest rates regardless of the status of the economy, the sad state of affairs with most States is not being priced into the markets yet. I strongly suggest those of you dependent on bonds for income give serious thought to a portfolio review ASAP.

Mainstream media appears to be heading the call of finding new ways to make ends meet. And never to be out done, good old Congress continues to do its part of spending our way back to prosperity.