Markets around the world are plunging and the U.S. is set to open limit down. Thankfully, we’ve been on the sidelines (except for precious metals which my wife reminds me every day). As crazy as it seemed to sell everything last October just days after the DJIA hit an all-time high and go short, we may soon be at a point to dive back in while everyone else is fleeing. I have to see how things play out today and I also have to leave before the market closes to get up to New York City for my BNN interview tonight.
Stay tuned. I will cover today’s events by tomorrow.
P.S. Please use this post to post your own views and help each other.
apparently looking at the XAU chart during the early 80’s the XAU fell +75%. A year after hitting that low the XAU was up nearly 300%, basically recovering everything that was lost. Let’s hope we see this type of recovery (since what were looking at here with the broad market is probably worse than what happened in the 80’s….)
Hi, Peter. We agree that this period will represent one of the best buying opportunities that we’ve seen in a couple of decades.
For example, I remember a time when investors would not touch First Quantum Minerals @ $.75 even though I pounded the table for anyone that would listen. I acquired it for my personal and family accounts and sold @ $4.25 a year later…it went on to hit $90 but I won’t complain.
The same goes for Arizona Star Resources @ $.25, which was acquired for $18.00 per share last year.
During the dot-com crash, Yahoo traded at a low of $4.90, only to hit $40.00 within 3 years.
Fortune favors the bold. If you are a worried investor, then start looking at this as a buying opportunity for good companies being thrown out with the bath water. Be prudent – but be bold.
Regards,
George
Thought we had an exhaustion gap in gold this am but not so sure now. Now that it has filled if we don’t take out yesterdays high this could head lower yet. Deutsche Bank is saying fair value is 600-620. Seems like it’s heading for the lowest uptrend line. Stocks certainly reflect something here. Not sure how much lower some can go. Silver stocks like great panter hit 11 cents this am, helca close to 2….totally getting decimated. Can’t wait to here your take Peter.
Interesting,on metal and gold stocks the move down from the high is starting to look parabolic…otherwords the rubber band is getting stretched…..imagine your stock chart inverted and it looks the same has a parabolic bull run and they most always snap back hard.
Gold rebounding after heavy nosedine this morning. Looks promising. Lets hope.
It’s noon and so far, we’re not getting the capitualation the market needs, IMO. Peter, I am interested in your views and will be watching you on BNN tonight. Do you think a washout in this market is inevitable?
What do you think about the theory, that the IMF might be a big seller of gold at the moment?
Thank you for all your helpful comments, Peter.
See my comments in base metal post from yesterday.
Tom – From your keyboard to God’s ears!
Nat – I sooner see 1,000 points down then this type of trading. We need to see how it plays out. I can’t believe I have to leave my bunker and travel to NYC.
Jochen – Somebody is selling hard. There’s no reason for people to have to pay so much over premium for physical gold if there isn’t true demand. I have to say if we can close above $750 that would be a major technical plus.
Thanks Peter I will look forward to your insight. If everyone is abandoning even the large stocks does that mean that eventually the small caps will be an even better buy? My pick is Goldstake GXP-T for .035, almost free with billions worth of gold, copper, nickel, uranium, zinc, tin, and probably diamonds in the ground. My theory/hope is that as soon as a deal is done on any one of these high grade properties this could be a hundred banger. These 10 properties are in Australia (next to the rising dragon), USA, and Ont. I feel that there is little risk that all high grade deposits will be developed because of demand from China, therefore the amount of risk is inversely proportional to the asset grades and not necessarily proportional to the stock price. Hence on a risk/reward point of view should we be looking at quality deposits, in combination with crushed stock prices?
david kenyon
Anyone follow Jim Willie CB of GoldenJackass.com? His article on Kitco.com today states that a recent multi-million dollar purchase of physical gold occurred with a price exceeding $1,000.00 / oz. Very interesting if accurate…
Peter – Curious to know how you would rank NAK, CXZ, GXEXF and TEMFF in terms of price appreciation potential over the next 12 mos. or so. Also, which company do you believe is at greatest risk of never being heard from again?
TEMFF and CXZ both below a lousy dime…wow…unbelievable
Dear Peter ; what LIBOR rate do you think will have to be reached before we may see resource companies with resources in situ having access to capitol..
Also I wonder if the continued value of fiat currencies can survive as they appear to be based upon suspicious government statistics ie. GDP etc. ( now not only USA but worldwide) which cannot possibly support their currency values.. Time to reinstitute a gold standard as a measure of value rather than the misinformation ( that govts provide until thay are caught in their own falsehoods and then have to come clean.
One last wonder — I wonder if anyone knows the true reserve value of supposedly held gold by the various central banks and the IMF.. Maybe some double counting going on here.
Love to hear your opinions
What does everyone think about buying Yuan?
Paper Gold is being liquidated, while Physical Gold demand…well you can’t get it. The USD is rallying like crazy after Trillions in bailouts…they say repatriation the cause but must fall because of the monetary inflation. Your Take Gold, should we hold the miners?
Peter,
Although yesterday looked promising for the bottom, we did not see capitulation with down stocks outnumbering up stocks 10 to 1 on large volume.
Given this, do you think we’re done the downtrend yet?
Mr Grandich.
Several times in interviews, in the last while you have mentioned the “L” bottom. You compare this to a previous Japan market and tonight you compared our situation to last mid century US.
We traditionally get a recovery of some kind in the first few months after a bottom such as we are currently experiencing. You are also suggesting a buy could come soon.
I am curious to know what range you think the lowere line of the “L” will trade in and does this mean there will be a sell again in the very near futer?
thanks
Michael
LT and superstar watch this for your answer http://grandich.agoracom.com/2008/10/interview-on-bnn-market-call-tonight/
Michael- Most recessions are “V” bottoms which means we don’t stay long at the bottom. An “L” bottom means we stay flat for a long period after bottoming. I think it’s too late now for the average investor to first start shoritng but far too early to buy anything for the long term. I do think we’ll have a strong bear market rally somewhere and the Talking Heads on CNBC-TV will declare the bear market over. I believe it will only be a pause in the bear market.
Peter, there is no doubt there are huge opportunities in the marketplace here and this is when and approimately where the big money for the next few years is to be made. The problem I have found is the way this market behaved over the past 8 months or so, no one expected it to get quite this ugly. Its hard for many because they are already so low if still holding and lost lots of money and most are being much more tight with any type of purchases. I truly wish I could come up with a bag of cash to buy, but the funds have tightened right up.
So many trading and market lessons to be learned by this massive event. You gotta keep some cash for the really tough times…………..great information and insight.
Thanks very much!!!
Scott Peters
Scott – Talk about lessons learn, us so-called experts all figured mining shares would not come down even if stock market does- WRONG!!!! Worse yet, I put all my cash available into stocks like NDM at 4 1/2, ANO at 1 1/2 Gix at $1 and SGC at .30 and thought i was buying at the bottom. I’ve lost at least two-thirds on paper and need them to triple or more just to get even. Makes you wonder if I should be writing an investment blog.
The wife has me house cleaning today. I have to do whatever she wants knowing she could divorce me just for how badly I handled our portfolio. I’ll check in later.
Peace!
Peter