The 600 point drop on the opening last Friday not only gave us a chance to cover our short positions for big gains, but the reversal toward the close and the tremendous one-day spike yesterday should make that low last Friday just under 8,000 a short to intermediate bottom. I felt that the DJIA could get as high as 10,000 in this bear market rally and it tried to on the opening today. The tremendous volitily should now be behind us. Look for a trading range to develop, but over the coming months that range should erode as the economy sinks deeper into recession and corporate earnings sag. Eventually, we should retest the lows of last Friday. Now is the time to just sit on your hands and limit any exposure to precious metals shares and bullion itself.
Tags: stock market
Peter once the gov’ts have to start playing other optons to fight recession…i believe that infrastructure may come into play to create jobs. Do you follow any of these plays? Currently in canada I am following symbol are on the tsx indicie[aceon]and heard about an asphalt play in the US…alj…alon energy……….It may be early yet but keeping an eye on these plays where gov’t may have to spend to keep the economy going might be benificial in the long run. Do you have any thoughts on this?
Hi Peter
Where can I find your replies to any of the questions you get on this Blog?
Also as newby, I missed out on the last recommendation to short the markets …what do you think about buying the SDS today and waiting for the markets to decline as you suggest that they will?
I look forward to your reply
thanks
Hi peter,
I remember clearly last year you tell people to short US market . but I did not believe you. It is a mistake. Now with the credit crisis and global recession , what do you think the commodity stock. like energy, fertilizer,copper etc. and how high do you think TSX will rebound and how long it wil last.? or would I just short those stocks.?
At this stage I find it to be pretty unpredictable … there is as much fundamental strength in the US economy as there were weapons of mass destruction in Iran. There are far more lies, acts of deception, and corrupted people of power than there is strenth … and remeber the bigger the lie the more it is believed and that absolute power corrupts absolutely.
Excessive debt levels before the sub prime crisis/liquidity crisis/ financial crisis … whatever …. still remain and have been exacerbated in the USA and western world.
I remain firmly committed to precious metals, a position I have taken since 2002. China and India are on a continued path of growth and although their economies are much smaller today … the growth will continue to be in areas of infrastructure which IMO means commodities and IT infrastructure will be better than most other sectors.
The US $ is badly over valued and that will be good for real things which will increase in prrice relative to the US $.
The US will do anything including war to avoid losing control of the financial world they inherited because commodities and international business transactions are denominated in US $.
The latest chicanery is for the fin’l gurus under Bush’s direction to go to congress get 750 bil in funding to buy up mortgages and then procede to buy bank stocks … in essence nationalizing that industry as the first of many needed in the interest of the countries interest and/or national security.
State capitalism and fascism at its best and even those who’s voice is heard such as Ron Paul are ignored. This is a grevious situation which will result in world chaos … In addition to gold and silver … one might consider stockpiling some staples …. rice, dry beans, spices, oil, flour, water, as well as bullets if you are a hunter.
If I am wrong … i will use the inventory up before death or donate it to food shelters before it expires and buy more until this inevitable destabilization of North American life is over.
Orgy
Hi Peter
When i heard you were sick i wanted to send you a email on a small easy to read book on food you should read..everything in the book is the truth and works on humans and animals..it changed my life..you can buy this book used on amazon.com or ebay for under 5 bucks..’THE MUCUSLESS DIET HEALING SYSTEM” There is nothing more important than what you are fueling your body with..good luck peter and god bless
Billy
You need to read comments on each blog posting of mine to see if I also have a comment(s)
I’m not shorting anymore unless we have another spike above 10,000
hi peter,
I have been reading all your articles since more thn a year. I am really impressed by your views about the economy and precious metals.
I would like to hear your view on silver, copper, nickel, and aluminium. what do you feel about these commodities?
Peter,
When you say we should sit on our hands what is your advice in regards to OTL (Oriental Minerals)
OTL was you number one pick on BNN. In this uncertain market do you still see it as a Buy?
My understanding is their cash burn rate is 300k per month with not a whole lot of money in the kitty. As well we still have not heard news regarding the PEA.
As you know they recently received a 3 million dollar loan from Longview Capital Partners but I am concerned about the health of LV and if it will survive the credit crisis. One final note have you had an opportunity to hear back from the management at OTL? I was concerned in one of your recent reports that you had not heard from OTL.
Thankyou and glad to see you back in the saddle
Anil Listen to recent radio interviews posted here and you’ll find out much about what you asked
Limit exposure to precious metals???? Now I am confused! In hindsight it would appear that having zero precious metal exposure would have been a good strategy. What would you recommend to a person who has plenty of exposure?
thanks for reply.
I have listen your many radio interviews. But found all are on economy and gold prices. Could you share your views particulary on silver and copper. Though silver is also a precious metal. But it is falling whereas gold is rising. Could you tell upto what level you see downside in silver and copper and what is the target in next 6-8 months.
silver is really not precious but usually gets to tag along with gold in that group. We’re witnessing a commodity bubble collaspe so one should look to buy commodities on the cheap for the foreseeable future. I think silver under $10 and copper under $2 are buys
Thanks a lot peter.
I am recollecting one article in that you have written Russia’s Federal Grid Company known as MRSKs, plans to list their shares in the second or third quarter of this year. The funds raised from the offerings will go towards the companies’ investment programme, which is valued at $55 billion to 2015 as Russia moves to renew ageing electricity networks.
Do you still believe that copper,zinc, steel prices will move up becz of that in the longer run? nd Whats upside target?
[...] noted in my http://grandich.agoracom.com/2008/10/where-do-we-go-from-here-1240pm-est/ commentary that we had the good fortune to cover all short positions when the stock DJIA fell [...]