A Painful Reminder
December 4th, 2008Long time readers of mine know what pushed me over the edge in turning incredibly bearish in October 2007 was a 60 Minutes interview of then U.S. Comptroller David Walker on 60 Minutes (he has since resigned his position).
I was just chatting with a good friend who said the following to me,”Peter, I know you spoke recently about getting back into the stock market if it goes much lower. Before you go any further, I want to remind you of what helped you get out at the top. Watch this video as I think it will help you remember how smart you were in 2007.”
Please watch this (link) He was indeed right.
December 4th, 2008 at 3:18 pm
Hi peter,
I remember that clip. If indeed the dollar (at minimum) becomes devalued; aside from owning physical precious metals, wouldn’t the stock market reflect this positively at least in price (not value), and be a better place to be than in cash? What is one to do short term 0-5 yrs? And longer term 5-20? I have urged friends and family for over 3 yrs. now of the huge fiscal problems in this country, and begged them to this day to allocate some cash to the metals sector and they either didn’t care or thought I was paranoid. Even today, they feel that the worst is over and that (this is my favorite line by the way): The govt. is too large and that they would NEVER let things get as bad as they did in the 30’s. How can one open the eyes of the people around them that they love?
December 4th, 2008 at 4:59 pm
Frank,
You might find this post to be of help:
http://investletters.com/blog/gold-buyers-smash-records/
The bullet points should act as eye openers.
Regards,
Roger.
December 4th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Hi Peter,
I was getting excited to get back into the energy market with oil approaching $40. Does this mean you will be holding off?
December 4th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
John - No
December 4th, 2008 at 11:18 pm
Of course, Merrill Lynch analysts are predicting sub-$25/bbl oil in 2009.
Question: are these the same guys that predicted $200 oil? (I think that was Goldman Sucks, but what were these guys predicting last July?)
After going from $147 to $47 in less than 6 months, how can any of these people claim - and why do they want to - that they have any idea what oil will do next year? Like the weather man, they obviously are not concerned about their reputation.
Roger.
December 9th, 2008 at 10:39 am
Roger - Unfortunately, some of us in the prediction game believe in the broken clock theory - ywice a day we’ll be right.