After 25 years in and around Wall Street, I’m not easily impressed by financial commentators. However, I was truly taken back by this interview. It wasn’t so much that Mr. Harrison share many of my own views as it was the straight-forward, no double-talk manner we have to endure most of the time. I would strongly recommend his website as well. minyanville.com
I couldn’t help think about a “chicken in every pot” when listening to President-Elect Obama speech today. I find it interesting that some of his fellow Democrats are already expressing concern about his plan. Wall Street has “priced” in (lol) smooth sailing for the Savior of the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd. Stay tuned
BMO”s US Portfolio Strategist provides an interesting read……..
http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/documents/524FD548-46A7-4E24-A91A-C08F78E957CA.PDF
I think you will enjoy this video of Marc Faber. editor of Doom, Gloom & Doom. Thinks we are in WW3 now and his last comment was that the trade of 2009 will be to short long term treasuries.
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vFxGybnAJsiA.asf
I have to comment on what I just heard on Kudlow a few minutes ago. He said that we have had 25 years of prosperity since Reagan due to tax reform and sound money. I know… He actually had the audacity to say “sound money ”
The fact is, real wages have declined and the majority of the people in this country have never been poorer. I guess he doesn’t remember when Nixon cut our last link to the gold standard in 1971……. That was the last time we had anything close to Sound Money. I can’t believe the nerve of this network. Where is Kudlow’s “goldilocks economy now!!
Peter,
Mike “Mish” Shedlock is another outstanding individual. He is also connected with Minyanville.
His website is: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
Cheers and thanks for all you do.
Thanks for the links, Peter. I found the interview informative and set up a feed to follow his website which looks chucked full of info. Probably cause me info overload though!
*** Confirmed Crossover ***
SRS – An Interesting Speculation
Numerous indicators confirm that the trend has turned down again.
Have a speculative situation that seems interesting…. (Symbol SRS) Double Leveraged Real Estate Short. Deeply oversold and it seems to have potential to rise to 100 as a first objective in the developing new downtrend. It mostly holds a short position on Commercial Real Estate. This is for amusement purposes only and not investment advice.
Until the inauguration, the market may move sideways with a distinct bias to the downside and then gather downward momentum. Then again, maybe not. This appears to be the final part of the ‘Third Wave’ down and should be shorter than the previous decline in both duration and depth. Perhaps the target area is around 600 for the S & P 500 in early March.
If this decline follows through, then we’ll have another consolidation before the Fifth and final wave down, while everyone wonders whether or not the Bear Market has ended. When it’s all over, maybe the Dow Jones Industrial Average will end up around 3,600 – 4,000 toward October.
Remember the posting “An Empty Cornucopia” which appeared here last Fall? Next Thanksgiving I’ll parade it around for people to see. Don’t ask me what kind of satisfaction that will bring.
SGGroup
I originally bought SRS in late 07 and then sold it in Nov. of 08. My buy price was 80-85, and I thought that was cheap. At $55, it is very hard to imagine that it goes much lower. However, its trading pattern is very similar to that of QID, which would indicate that if you think SRS is oversold and going higher, then the stock market will most likely go lower. Needless to say, I have been following SRS for a couple years now and as you mentioned it does look oversold especially considering that the real estate market looks the same or worse than before. Just an observation, I guess we’ll have to wait and see.
Hey Peter,
How about a playoff contest? If not for all 4 games, perhaps one for your beloved Giants and my beloved Philadelphia Eagles?
Hi Frank… My computer failed this morning, after languishing for weeks. By the time I got to delete & reload SRS was higher. What a nightmare & so much info lost. I’ve owned SRS profitably twice, but not the giant gains because I’m scared of heights. Too bad I can’t create money out of thin air, without consequences, like the government does. Maybe next time.
Hi Peter,
Today I had look at the CBOE put-call parity and here I what I saw:
- I plotted a 10 day average of the ratio of both the total equity volume and as well as Index Volume. What I observed was that historically, they both tend to have been at the opposite side of the aisle, at key inflexion points. An extreme reading in one coupled with an opposite extreme on the other, have been a good indicator of market turns. I am not very sure, but it could be because of the fact that Equity volume is more a reflection of CROWD behaviour and INDEX Volume is a reflection of SPECALIST behaviour.
- At this moment the Equity Volume Put-Call ratio is around the levels seen around MAY, 2007, when DJIA was at 13,000, and also around extreme low. But, the Index volume PUT-CALL ratio is yet to reach an extreme top. In fact the Index Ratio has just started to move back-up from a low level.
Therefore, I think what the above suggests is that though the mass sentiment has normalised and is in fact turning bullish but the specialist are yet to bet on the other side. This could keep the market ranged with an upward bias, before the reading on crowd sentiment turns even extremely bullish and specialists start to bet on the other side.