They say death and taxes are the only two sure things. Well I’m going to give you another; 4th quarter GDP will be revised sharply lower in the weeks and months ahead. I have no doubt the number this morning was massaged as a 7% or higher loss would have sent the markets into a swoon. This massage will backfire as 1st quarter GDP will now be as bad, if not worse, than 4th quarter, thereby showing the economy is not bottoming.
U.S. banks are insolvent and will need to be nationalized if we’re to ever see a light at the end of the tunnel. The happy crowd likes to say the Fed is in control but the facts say otherwise. Watch
A close above $928 on gold will be a very bullish weekly close. I believe gold is rising because the world realizes we’re up the creek and the powers-at-be in Washington have no paddle.
Stay tuned.
Peter, looking to get companies that may follow the infrastructure investment. I believe we will see a resurgence of Fiber optic. read an article where google has bought up a tremendous amt. of what was overcapacity. I’m putting jdsu back on my radar, do you have any others in this sector.
Another I just remembered in that area with fb optic products is avnx…..followed it last year and drooped it after a reverse split…not sure how it has been doing…..jdsu has picked up recently
Peter with this comment, you are beginning to sound like a bigger Dr. doom than me! Is that allowed?
I have no doubt the number this morning was massaged as a 7% or higher loss would have sent the markets into a swoon.
I must say I do agree with you … that number is fishy … of course they could also go retoractively to Dec of 07 and say that it was really worse back then and we just figured out we are coming out of the swoon.
the prophet
Chris – First off, I like your posts and the other “regulars”. As noted before, i think us so-called experts can use input from smart individual investors. Allow me to state that the infrastructure talk from Obama was a smoke screen to get a “spending” (not stimulus) bill through. The current bill has $35 billion dedicated to infrastructure. The Eisenhower administration spent $550 billion.
Peace!
Peter i hear you…..but after the world ends there must be some rebuilding and infrasture upgrades….. unless that article I read by the russian author is true…where the US is split up and canada owns the north, the chinese the west,,,russia the east etc etc…….anyhow I believe these plays will provide profit just like the defence plays did when the US went to war…….already in the stem cell area with gern and explosive upside with just a ment. of obama support….now of course you have to be there and book that profit and not hold out long positions…in and out right?Anyhow can’t totally resign to doom and gloom…the world ticks on as trading does until then…and when the dow hits 6000 and the S&P hits 600???….then maybe there will be some healing. Just trying to be abit of an optimist, looking around in the basement of the building without the rest of the floors falling on my head.
Btw have you ever looked at pts…points international….they have 65 mill. cash….trade airline points for goods and profit has been rising. Maybe a good area in a recession since there are so many points owned out there. The stock was doing well until management did a sloppy raising of funds and created an overhang of shares on the market.I believe after many months this overhang is being absorbed and the stock may offer at least a double or triple very soon. It currenty trades at .50 and I’m going in at a bid of .40 or close and wait to see. Downside risk may be small with all the cash. Stock trades tsx…another would be aeroplan………anyhow I’m even looking at a big screen in swap for points so maybe the idea of just using points to buy goods instaed of using cash will take off in a recession??Just an idea..
Btw does spending not equal stimulous?
Hello Peter, I’d like your opinion on today divergence between Gold the metal and the gold stocks. shouldn’t this be a negative thing for gold in the near future?
Thanks
Just trying to get your reply understood in my limited thought process. First I take it that you don’t follow any fibre plays by the no reply to the question. Next I take it you as most are unhappy with the obama plan so far and may most likely be futile, or maybe not, but most likely…lol……….but as I am , you must be thinking forward somewhat according to some of the companies..eg cxx that you follow. That is an infrastructure, forward looking play.Walking and chewing gum at the same time is something I like to do…lol
Hey all,
You would think that chart would speak volumes, but I have shown that chart to many people and just e-mailed it to several more and I am still shocked at the mild, could’nt care less response that I get. Perhaps you can create 1 trillion dollars in 1.5 years and not expect any severe repurcussions, I guess we’ll find out. But my point is this, In the last several years (especially 2008) you would think more people would pay attention to the facts, but they don’t. It is frightening to witness the fact that most people either dont care or don’t understand the severity of it all. That’s what is great about this blog, that some people do understand the world around us and that people like myself don’t feel like they are isolated in their thinking and general view. Thanks to all.
Chris Ruel – You keep posting your ideas. I wish the thousands who read this blog would do the same. Trust me, I found more individual investors who understand things than so-called Professionals.
Chris As usual, the gang on the Comex came in and tried to sell gold down. They did for a short while and gold shares retreated. With the market overall down, gold shares are not likely to rebound sharply today unless gold takes out it’s earlier high today
Chris
AVNX just merged with BKHM . Both up today, but AVNX is not trading close to offer and has fallen off at the end of the last 2 days.
Peter
I’m concerned about news reports that RTP is selling assets and is considering a rights offering to pay down huge debt. If Misubishi makes a low offer for NDM they may not be in a position to make a proper counter offer. The way I read the tea leaves they might just take a low offer to improve their balance sheet. Does AAUK have the balance sheet that would enable them to offset a low bid?
Peter one thing I find about blogs not so much when talking about politics and religion because people like to make a statement, but when it comes to sharing ideas whether it be a concept regarding future movements or individual stock ideas investors do shy off. Individual stock ideas can become a problem because we all follow alot of stocks or have heard about good concepts or ideas and a blog like this can become flooded with those, many possibly unresearched and just thrown out and basically just go by the way side. Basically it may be a problem of trust. None of us here have a prescence with the exception of yourself. It takes patient people to focus on lets call it “the story”…whether it be infrastructure and it’s several facets ie, energy, roads, internet etc…..defense or even a simple one that came about for me years ago on a toronto co. that produced the first small satellite tv dishes or the co. that first put auto parts in a combined software product for all dealers…..they all rocket…..so once we find the story, like gold then it can be focused on an plays that pertain can be better zeroed in on. For all the focus on gold and silver on this blog there has been little focus on actual stocks….sure lately some etf talk….but it all left me wondering how many readers here actual do follow stocks. I follow lots but hesitate to post on them because of fear of posting too much or flooding the board with too many stocks and poss. others doing the same ending up with the calamity of just too many stocks to look at and how much dd was done before throwing that play into the mix or can you trust that unknown entity not to be just hyping a play. The setup of this blog to me anyway is great. Yourself the leader, well qualified……but I do find somethings, lets call them cobwebs,,,for instance… when I look to the list of companies to see if there are any fresh posts I click on that co. only to find much of what is posted on the main board is posted there and must be sorted thru to actually find the 8,10 0r 20 posts that actually pertain to that co. Another cobweb and please do not take insult to this, is that every day on the main board there are new subjects posted. Once comments have started on a boards subject it seems to be broken because the crowd needs to move over to the new subject and continuity is broke. I’m suggesting a new area[ one slot only] just for traders of ideas and stocks or ta,,,away from the political and religious discussion so that way conversions aren’t moved or broken up to another area or subject….and when a question is asked of the board administrator…he answer it even if it’s a simple no…I do not follow any “fibre optic” plays. I believe too many questions go unanswered here which may cause frustration and lack of flow. It’s a new board and would be great if as you say more readers posted, especially if they post on ideas and stocks that may produce potential profit and not just ideals.Anyhow i must have too much time on my hands today soooo better watch thae ta guy on bnn today…
Two interesting etf’s I’ve tracked for awhile now in canada are hsu and xsp……both are s&p bull and should move well if the s&p holds the 800 Just waiting to make sure it hold support before going in……
chris you motivated me … I am very high on one stock in particular … LOOK communications … LOK, LOK.A, or their parent (a little less secure in my mind) UBS.
They have decided to put their assets up for sale in a court supervised process with bids to be received by Feb 16. to maximize shareholder value … Amongst their assets LOOK has
- 300 mil of tax credits
- Approximately 100 MHz in Ontario and Quebec Spectrum 1.8 billion MHz/POPs
Similar spectrum was auctioned off last year by the Canadian Gov’t for 4.2 bil. I have followed its story for over a couple years and have a substantial holding. Current market cap around 50 mil.
To be honest it seems to good to be true … perhaps it is … or it could be a once in lifetime opportunity.
DO NOT BUY THIS WITHOUT DOING SUBSTANTIAL DD BEFORE AND/OR CHECKING WITH A PROFESSIONAL FINANCIAL ADVISOR.
orgy
Does anyone follow Ge[general electric]…..this stock is being decimated. i know it has a finance arm and most likely that is the problem. the dividend is large……it looks like it could go sub 10…??……..this seems like it would be a buy down there for long term hold…In a healthier market environment the chart offers big upside as far as charts go….hmmmm
if GE can’t survive, we better start getting used to grass soup …. because that may be all that is available …. they state emphatically the dividend is not going anywhere … I believe them and although I think we have time to buy since I believe the market has another leg down … but it is a great long term play … especially if you having any faith in Mr. Buffet’s judgement.
orgy
Grass soup…uggh…sounds something like the dandelion wine someone tried to get me to drink one time….although during tough times people can develop tastes for things they never thought they’d eat….anyhow you’re right they have a hand in everything, if you had to spell diverse differently you’d spell it …GE….looking at a monthly we catch a buy somewhere under 10…when it comes time I’m going to zero in on supports in that area…..gosh isn’t that one of those blue chip stocks everyone was telling us to buy at one point…lol
One last post today…I bought a couple plays awhile back that I’m down 60 percent on. Now these are small caps, one in voip. Both these plays look to have bottomed and both actually yesterday had their financial’s for the year end released yesterday. they have been up both days. But to note more than there financial’s, with reference to the indicie’s, I’m thinking that the strength in these plays and other small caps are pointing to the indicie’s holding their supports. Many small caps are under water and lots have delisting notices, although steps were taken by the new york and Nasdaq to give them more than normal time to get there pps in line to listing requirements…anyhow point is I believe that these co’s are going to start to move back above the 1 dollar mark to reinstate there listing requirement which may point to the indicie’s rising now with the expected leg down to come later in the summer or so. What is it…sell in may and go away”. We’ll see I guess.
Orgy…I’ve been in on UBS not look…but basically in one in both right since ubs owns 51 percent. I had this for awhile and just sit with it to see the outcome which should be profitable for us. Now I believe I told you before when you ment. this …I do Not trust management….having said that I’m in and holding. If they catch some bidders on that spectrum which I cannot see happening….then this will pay. Click on the link below and you will get the st p&f target. Now these targets can change as fast as you can spell ge[up or DOWN]……as they can be also wrong if the spectrum catches a bid for what it’s really worth….okay so I fibbed….the prev. post wasn’t my last for the day…..I’m thinking lately to buy more but my Capricorn tendencies are restricting my gambling tendencies…lol
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=UBS.V,PLABDANRBOPADF1!3!1.0!!2!20]&pref=G
Stephie, yes I read about that merger. The chart is starting to look good…..maybe I’ll watch for a small dip…..but I am always concerned and have great disdain for any co. who reverse splits. Can’t tell you how many times I’ve been burned with that action.
chris … i fully appreciate the lack of trust in management and why … and why I say UBS is less secure ….as you said it seems unlikely some meaningful bid will not occur … to minimize tax a share swap would be better than a cash purchase dividended out … in either case dividend or share swap, holders of LOOK will be rewarded with either newco shares or cash … that held by UBS is still subject to the potential vagaries of management … now UBS still has fiduciary responsibility and holders of UBS could always take action, but getting into LOOK ahead of UBS would seem to me to reduce management’s potential to manipulate … especially under the light of court supervision.
your thoughts?
orgy
Orgy…I meant re spectrum…that if they catch bidder on that spectrum which I cannot see not happenning……I printed above that I could not see it happenning which was a typo…I do believe it catch a bidder
Well orgy, as you know Ubs is a holding company at this point and I agree with what you say…but I believe in my case since that is where I positioned that once the bid is made and completed the stock will react equally for the most part. it is that reaction that I wait for and I will wash my hands of that crowd. I felt safer in the bed of ubs management since they do have a subs. investment and cash still at this point and we all saw what they did to Craig’s share of the pie and how they maneuvered into look. Always felt safer there just due to the fact that if look ran out of, or could not raise cash ubs management could still maneuver the asset for next to nothing from look if push came to shove…other wards they would be the dominant dictator if things ever got really rough and a hostile takeover would be easy to undertake. I do believe at this point if a sale comes forth they’ve been standup businessmen, more than I would have ever expected of them.
i agree … and I also hold UBS for the reasons you indicated … the recent sale announcement i feel gives LOOK a bit of an edge and as you know they have always hung around each other price wise …. very nice to hear that you have been impressed by their behaviour as stand-up businessmen …. they have been shrewd and imo positioned us well for a possible healthy pop in the worst market I’ve lived through.
orgy
I also personally believe that Alex is looking to cash out..not own shares of a newco…this guy is an entrepreneur and will look for his next venture and I do not really believe he would want to invest more with a partner to develope this. I could be wrong. Now having said that anyone that buys the spec. will most likely be a big player and shares easily sold.
Does anyone have a symbol fo oil…I’ve tried numerous ones from numerous sits and cannot get a chart…oil seems in limbo today between supp and resc. and I want to take a closer look. i’d like to see a pull to the 38 or 39 supp. Gosh sorry to anyone reading this blog today…didn’t mean to post so much.
Okay so you own ubs..from the prev posts I thought you had look….anyhow I do believe look is the underdog in this situation and the co. Alex squats in is where to be, I means he’s pulling the strings you can bet. . I just wonder how much more of look he owns in offshore accounts….reminiscing back a bit…..or is that possible.
The S&P is leaving me scratching my head today…I’m betting next week on a test of 800 that it holds…….anyone want to bat a fantasy bid of 5 bucks on 800 holding…lol this of course would mean the worse would come later/
quite possible … not a lot of shares move on any of them given just how much potential is there …. I agree logic says gets out … working with big money is excruciating for his type … they have been very shrewd and as I said I see a share swap which don’t draw immediate capital gains … very please to be holding a chunk of both and being in the black now also feels good.
orgy
Interesting article on base metals
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article8585.html
Chris Ruel Maybe you should get your own blog.
next week close below 8000 on the dow and 800 on the S&P … good time to short .. we are on our way down! Perhaps with a bit of a thud depends upon the PPT and news coming out
the prophet
“Chris Ruel Maybe you should get your own blog.”…ooops, not sure how to reply to this ,post 10 and 31 sending conflicting message.Please confirm either one.
‘
Hey chris ruel,
I strongly suspect Mr. Grandich’s comment was in jest. He appreciates all input. Today, you have provided lots of food for thought (thank you).
Keep it coming.
Chris I was just joking
I read, with interest, Eric Sprott’s January 2009 news letter (www.sprott.com) were he claims $60 TRILLION of wealth has evaporated from the world economy. Are the governments are buying deck chairs on the Titanic?