I remember the good old days when I slept like a baby. Now it’s twist and turn for 5-6 hours and then struggle to get out of bed. But today I popped up when I saw on the television the price of gold and the U.S. Dollar continuing its “Walking Dead” march.
I’m working on an expanded update that should be out no later than Monday if not sooner. Meanwhile, sit back as the model portfolio has been heavily-weighted to metals and mining stocks and bets against poor old Uncle Sam.
Please note – I’ll be live on the nationally broadcasted Korelin Radio Network this Saturday at 3PM DST. You can hear it live.
Peter, Try some daily exercise in the evening. That may help you sleep well.
Best,
Good morning Peter!
How can i have acces to your model portfolio? i beleive i saw it once about a couple of months age but now i cant find the link.
Thanks and have a good day!
Alex
Alex..look to the column on the right where it says…
MODEL PORTFOLIO
The pix looks like an analyst I know ! I remember, Joe Granvilles chimp !
# 2 ALEX, IT’S IN THE RIGHT HAND MARGIN, under MODEL PORTFOLIO lol, LOL
Dan – Exercise, what’s that? LOL Actually I gain 40lbs last ten years. I’m moving soon and they have a full exercise room with indoor/outdoor pool. I promised the wife we will go at least 5 times a week. The room has a tv so i can watch the markets (please God have Bloomberg TV).
A number of pundits, extreme conservatives I guess, extoling the efforts of W Bush. Wow, this nut triggered the biggest debackle this world has known so far, HOW ? Let me count the ways. Sorry the list is more than I can type with one finger. Turning over this country to the large corporate interests and insanely rich was a coup de tate of immense proportions causing a rape of the world economy. Can revolution be far behind ? I do not see a civil future for our decendants
# 1 Dan, the number one thing not to do is exercise before retiring, it awakes all the senses. But I drink coffee before retiring (not decaf) so who really knows what is best, altho sex comes to mind. lol
Now why do you think Geitner is going to visit China? Could it have anything to do with their concern over our Treasuries, dollar, or monetization? See the article below.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/geithner-goes-to-beijing-to-manage-bad-marriage
Challie and anyone with an extra pair of shoes – come to Toronto today. Bush (and Clinton) are speaking and the BoSox are in town. Catch the game & toss a shoe or two (I’ve been collecting shoes for months now).
Peter – you can even toss one at Bill if you want. Maybe it’ll help you sleep……
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/toronto/story/2009/05/29/toronto-traffic.html
For those of you NAK/NDM investors, I came across the attached article where apparently Matt Badiali who edits the S&A Oil Report had a teaser out about a huge new gold discovery. See the article below where Gumshoe identifies it as NAK:
http://www.stockgumshoe.com/2009/03/alaskas-secret-gold-mine-biggest-gold-discovery-of-last-20-years.html
Thanks to all for the great advice! Any thoughts on a way to play silver up here in Canada. Silver Wheaton? Silvercorp?
HAU (Grains) is starting to make a nice move… anyone else playing this. Looks like its going to be a counter-cyclical trade with Corn prices starting to move up. Any thoughts?
Interesting that Geitner’s making the trip…
Go Penguins!! Who do people like in the Stanley Cup Playoffs??
Susan – on Geitner visiting China:
Remember when he accused China of being a “currency manipulator” (by pegging its currency to the dollar)? You don’t hear much talk of that these days. I suspect China has laid down the law on this one. If the Chinese allowed their currency to rise substantially, their US treasury holdings would further drop in value. This is one part of the US debt dilution that the Chinese can control and will simply not allow.
The true currency manipulator is the US – printing money, playing beggar thy neighbor and trying to squirm out of its debt obligations.
susan great find. so happy you’re back with us
Susan
Agreed. I harken back to when Hank Paulson was on his knees begging Pelosi to convince her rank and file to go along with TARP 1. I thought then something didn’t seem right in that no one in this country would want to pull the rug out from under themselves. But maybe other countries would like those who finance our debt. Interestingly, TARP 1 had bail out provisions for foreign banks. It almost reeked of ‘You got us in this mess with your sub prime investments, now get us out of it’. That image always bothered me.
But, I have a question on interest rates specifically long term rates as they relate to mortgage rates. If you or anyone else would read Carlfutia.com, he has a piece on the effect of rising interest rates on the economy and mortgage rates (written yesterday and today). It’s a contrary opinion to what has been discussed on this blog and different than my own current thinking. In short, he thinks the FED wants higher long term interest rates (which we are seeing suggesting monetary policy is working) as we inflate ourselves out of this mess while at the same time he does not believe it will hurt the economy although it will be somewhat inflationary but not overwhelmingly so. He feels this is super bullish for the US and world economies. It’s always good to get the other side. He’s very knowledgable. Give it a read if you will and tell me what you or anyone else thinks about mortgage rates into the future and the effect of long term rates on the economy and housing. Sorry I couldn’t give you the link.
Oh, I forgot to mention that if I read Carl correctly, he feels that mortgage rates should move DOWN not up. Yeah, I’m scratching my head too.
Hello Peter,
Due to my procrastination, I have not added any PM stocks. I watched GDX but it did not go below the recommended entry point in April. I do have some GLD, SLV and CEF as your recommended.
Is it too late to long PM stocks at this moment? For people like me who missed the recent up-leg, what should we do now? Looking forward to your advice.
Just came across this article regarding sub-prime mtgs.. I was starting to think that we were getting near the bottom of the housing market but this article puts that to bed. We don’t have as many of these types of mtg. products up here so I’m not that familiar with them. Essentially there are many more mtgs. to reset (which there always are) but are only slightly better than subprime mtgs., combined with a poor employment picture…. Any thoughts on this?
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/casey/casey052909.html
Nevsun (NSU) raised target to 2.65 from 2.50. By Haywood (Cdn dollars).
Bill
Sorry in my previous post I meant to ask Peter if there is a revised entry point for PM Miner stocks, using GDX as a reference. Thank you very much!
Mr Grandich – if I had your money I would hire someone to do the exercise for me. Do you not know some unemployed professional athlete (LOL).
In NAK at $7.50 yesterday and out NAK at $8.35 today…$0.85 per share profit on my rolling block in less than 1 day…I love this game!
Hello Peter,
Where do you see the DJIA going from here (short, intermediate and long term)? I have been missing out on quite a bit of upside lately (other than gold stocks). I am getting concerned about being wrong and especially staying wrong. Do you think we’re missing out on a rally that could last a while or will the slow bleed start soon?
Thanks a lot
For those Americans who would like to check to see how their stocks are doing in Canada you may want to check out Stockhouse….sometimes they carry some interesting information not always available by just checking the US boards. Cite is below:
http://www.stockhouse.com/tools/?page=%2FFinancialTools%2Fsn%5Foverview%2Easp%3Fsymbol%3DT%2ENDM%26table%3DLIST
#23 Jim:
We have a very clear trading range between 930 and 880 on the S&P. This has the potential to become a bull flag. If we break out to the upside, especially on increased volume, the probability for another leg up would be fairly high.
Since we are currently close to the top of the range, it would probably be prudent to wait for a breakout before going all in.
It’s also possible that the trading range holds for a while longer. And of course, it’s always possible that we get a break below 880, which would imply a deeper retracement. This is why it’s OK to watch and wait.
I like the alternating colors on the posts, but the numbers are gone..
what numbers? I’m still trying to figure out how to get posts done so hang in there. I do think this is much easier to read. Next will be the model portfolio.
Klaus,
I saw that you got in on UUU on Wed. at $1.97. Good move. I looked at it once I got home from work and tried to get in around $2.00 the next day after doing some research. I didn’t get in as it was up 21% on Thursday. I decided to watch a bit and noticed it was down enough today for me to feel comfortable enough to take a small position at $2.24. I was looking at UUU a couple of weeks ago, and now in hind sight, I am glad I went with a small position in DML. Even after their share dillution a week later. That only cost me (hopefully termporalily) a few percent, not 40% like UUU. I quess what I am wondering is, if your are willing to comment, what is your exit strategy with this one. Maybe you already took your 20% and ran. I think it is a gamble as good news next week could send it back to where it was, and bad news maybe to $1.75. I was willing to take my chances. I am just wondering if you think the kneejerk reaction has already corrected or do you think there is still some upward movement here. I am also considering holding long term as that is why I was originally tracking it for the last couple of months.
If anyone has any comments please feel free to post.
Thanks,
Ryan
My post at 5:15pm was lost. Re-post
#6 Peter, Set a goal of how many days you’ll exercise for the year. Then print out a monthly spreadsheet to record it daily. I was able to get 330+ days last year from 320+ the year before! No cheat, no Turbo TAX! And don’t blame on Tout-TV if you miss the exercise.
#8 Challie, I thought waking up all the senses before retiring is a good thing (at least save some money on blue pills under BHO plan). Or else what are you going to do after retiring? Search Youtube all day long like Peter??
Have a great weekend!
Ryan,
I would have sold at the open today because of the gap up (would have been a 30% gain in 2 days – I’ll take that), but I had a lot of things on the go this morning and by the time I got a look at it, it was already down. Since it’s only a half position, I’m just going to sit on it. While another surprise could still come, I don’t think there is too much downside from here. There’s good support between 1.70 & 2.00 and resistance between 3.00 & 3.25. If it goes down to 1.76, I’ll buy my other half position with a stop at 1.68. If it gets to 2.98 I’m selling.
Hope this helps.
Klaus,
Thanks for the reply. I appreciate you being so open about your trading strategy with UUU. This one has so many potential curve balls associated to it that any info. really helps clear the mind. I don’t know if you remember but you gave me your opinion on OPC a while back. I moved some out at a loss as having my whole portfolio in it was too much. I left a big chunk in and have done alright. I wonder why I don’t just follow the G-man’s model portfolio to a tee as I would be much further ahead, but I find I need to make my own decisions and find my own path. I really like having such a great person to follow as he is truly exceptional. I also have been following alot of what you and many other posters here have to say. I like to listen, learn, digest, research and then hopefully make a good decision. It is all I can do. Still so much to learn about the markets for this guy. It is truly so much fun. Thanks again.
Ryan
Thanks Klaus,
I appreciate your comments.
Hi Peter, one way to lose some weight forever is to follow the “Fit for Life” program. Not a diet, they don’t work, but a lifestyle (eating habits) change. The book is available everywhere. Actually really easy to follow. Best of luck.
And again, we can’t thank you enough for you for sharing your insights.
Wolfy I can’t lose weight. I took up jogging to lose weight but kept running into restaurants.
Peter, In that case, you need a treadmill and put a picture of Big Mac on the control panel.
LOL