Sometimes it’s quite beneficial to review one’s past actions and results in order to make an educated guess on the future. Did you say “guess,” Mr. Grandich? Believe it or not, that’s the best anyone can do. While I appreciate the many accolades for perhaps the greatest streak of success on the “guessing” front in my 25 years in this crazy game, I’m no St. Peter. He did manage to walk on water for a brief period but even he soon realized no mere human can do so on their own. Thankfully, it’s been almost a decade now since I was last a “legend in my own mind.” Now it’s my waist that can’t get through doors versus my head.
The easy part of this commentary is the look through the rear view mirror. I, along with most other financial people, have at one time or another done all we could not to look back in hopes our clients/followers would forgive our poor driving and stick with us for a better road ahead. So please allow me to beat my chest a little (there’s not much to beat so that’s why it’s only a little).
I made the most drastic move in my entire career back in October 2007 just two days after the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit its all-time high. I stated one should sell all equities except those related to precious metals and to short the U.S. stock market. Among known friends and followers, I don’t think 2% listened. Some may have sold some shares and/or shorted the market but none took the advice to its fullest. That should come as no surprise. The human psyche just doesn’t allow most of us to be in an environment where the masses are mostly on the same wave length and suddenly you’re asked to make a 180-degree turn.
At one time in my life, I spent more time at a craps table (imagine how foolish we are to think we’re going to win on a game called craps) than I care to remember. While the casino never had to change its name to Grandich, I did learn some very interesting facts that took place during the game that could be applied to investing. The first is the vast majority of people bet on the shooter even though the odds for or against are almost the same. Why? Because people like to bet on success not failure, and the game is set up as if a bet on the shooter is a bet against the house (even though the house gladly books all bets on the shooter and against them). The euphoria from being part of a winning roll seems far greater than being among the minority who bet against the shooter and win seemingly at another player’s expense.
There are other factors that have actually helped me stay ahead in the biggest casino of them all – Wall Street – but one of them ties directly into the point I was about to make. When the stock market just made that all-time high in October 2007, the overwhelming majority of individual investors and professional advisors were on the long side. Very few placed bets on the short side (there’s another reason for that but I’ll go into more detail in my book due out this year). It was like a dice game where the shooter and the vast majority of players at the table are betting on the shooter. In all the years I “sleep walked” to a craps table (that excuse didn’t work with the wife, either), I never once saw players winning on the shooter just pick up their gains and move on, let alone switch to the other side. Again, the human psyche just doesn’t allow that. The same can be said for October 2007. The crowd was very long and the feel of the game (thanks to shills like CNBC) was being hyped to levels that this roll would keep going on and on. No matter what fundamental argument one made (including my own), the crowd was just not going to listen.
Just about all financial firms and their employees are greatly tilted to the bullish side since being bearish doesn’t sell products and services to most. Add the cottage industry that surrounds this “biggest casino in the world”-financial radio and TV stations, financial publications like Money Magazine and all sorts of people who sell products and services that are supposed to help investors win (which really only prosper in bull markets)-and the game appears to have only one path -up.
This group of people and organizations (all part of the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy Crowd”) could all be tossed off the Empire State Building and would all say the same thing all the way down – so far so good! You just won’t see them betting against the shooter so they’re never going to tell you to pick up your chips and leave (them) or switch to the other side. This is why most people and advisors only win about a third of the time and had no plan to handle the devastation that has now taken place. But just like a craps table that went cold eventually gets filled up again with new shooters, the financial advisors who failed to foresee this horrific crisis are once again peddling their wares to “shooters” who still step up to the table hoping for that one big roll.
I tell you this in hopes of you realizing you’re just not going to get lots of confirmation when you perceive a change in direction because Wall Street is indeed made up of sheep, which if you ever watch in a field, follow one another all over in different directions. The shame of it all is that those in the “happy” crowd are many times wolves dressed in sheep’s clothing. Throughout this 20-month period of near perfect calls in several markets (except junior resource stocks in 2008) and virtually all winning stock picks, I made calls and picks that seemed (and I was told) to go against the general consensus at the time. Betting against the crowd at some time is the only way to catch a new trend before the crowd does, but simply betting against the crowd isn’t any assurance of success. However, when fundamentals, technicals or a combination of both lead you to believe a change is warranted, you can’t wait for it to become evident to most because you will never beat the crowd. We must constantly stay on guard and not fall in love with our position to the point we’ve dug in our heels so far that our pride prevents you from making the switch. That’s why most professionals under-perform: they are either trapped with having to be always bullish or bearish based on the products and/or services they provide; they become so entrenched in their beliefs that they can’t bring themselves to change for fear of switching just before they’re right; or, they wonder what people will say if they do.
The few successful gamblers will all tell you that preservation of capital is the key to success. I will use craps again to explain this but almost any gambling vehicle would work in this scenario. As someone loses more and more, they tend to increase their bets in hopes of getting back what they lost. The few successful gamblers do the opposite. They wait until the game changes in their favor before increasing their bets. The same is true in investing/speculating. One tends to sell winners to average down in losers versus selling the losers for what they can get and put more on the winner.
Going back to October 2007, I envisioned the worse financial crisis since the Great Depression. I said the most prudent investing strategy was to be a live chicken versus a dead duck. If one had followed the advice, they would have been heavily in cash, short the market and long precious metals-related investments. Cash did turn out to be king; I covered the short position just under DJIA 8000 and gold held its own. I did get smacked in junior resource stocks but exposure there was advised to be no more than 10% or so of one’s portfolio. I believe 95% of all investors would be delighted if they had done this.
What made this move even more beneficial was on March 6, 2009, I literally startled friends and followers (and myself), by leaving the bear camp and calling for a big rally in stocks. Boy did we get a rally! I rode that rally all the way up to May 9th. At that point, I decided to take big profits even though I felt the DJIA could still get to 9000. A significant part of those profits came from oil stocks that I placed in the portfolio in late December and early January when oil was significantly below $40. Back then, the crowd was again all in concert about too much oil and a further decline to as low as $20 was near universal. I also took profits in foreign markets ETFs and Canadian banks. Yes, the market has inched up since then and oil has gone past my original target of $60 (but I maintain a long-term target of new all-time highs). By keeping my large exposure to precious and base metals-related investments, we’re now experiencing large double-digit and triple-digit paper profits. I think only one open recommendation is lower by a few cents.
I tell you this not to gloat (okay maybe a little) but to emphasize again that my main goal is to build and preserve capital especially in volatile times. This is my mindset as I now try to “guess” the future.
U.S. Stock Market -
Only on Wall Street where the “happy” people play could so much bullishness be present while the U.S. Dollar extends its death march. But can you blame the sheep leaders? After all, I believe they wiped out more sheep (and many wolves) in the last 20 months than the grand total of the last 20 years. In all seriousness, the widespread losses among investors, particularly those 55 years old and older, is going to have a profound effect going forward.
Bullishness has rocketed up the last two months yet the market can’t get through the highs made when I exited. One could argue this is just a breather, but my work suggests it’s a broadening top. The fact that the Dow Jones Transportation Average is under-performing is troublesome. After all, if the green shoots were turning into roses, one would expect a significant pick up in transportation stocks.
Despite my return to the bearish camp, I’ve not advised shorting this time around. Why? I think the freefall is behind us. This alone will have the “happy” people out of their foxholes and waving the sheep on. At the same time, I think all the liquidity thrown into the market can at least give some ability to get growth to either side of zero. Therefore, I expect a significant trading range is developing between the March lows and possibly as high as DJIA 10,500 (but more likely 9,000). It should be strictly a trader’s market. If I’m right about us facing even more economic, social and political problems as we get into 2010 and beyond, I do believe we can only look to the long side if and when we’re closer to the bottom of the trading range. Sideways markets are the most difficult for individual investors because the majority of them are speculators/gamblers and need the action. Having chicken feathers until further notice is okay.
Foreign Stock Markets -
Here too I’m bearish (except neutral on China) but if you absolutely need to be long equities, do so overseas versus here in the U.S.
U.S. Dollar -
Perhaps ad nauseam, I’ve said two things about the U.S. Dollar since the U.S. Dollar Index was well over 100:
- “The only party that doesn’t know the U.S. Dollar is dead is the U.S. Dollar.”
- “The U.S. Dollar is a Dead Man Walking”
As noted in my U.S. stock market comments, only on Wall Street where the “happy” people roam could a country’s currency be falling out of bed, yet the crowd sees green shoots everywhere. Has anyone asked what they’re smoking? Does anyone bother to ask why the U.S Dollar is falling so sharply? Yes, but the overriding reply is hogwash, IMHO. The claim that the risk adverse play in the dollar is being unwound is just a lame excuse. The market had the greatest rally of all time and only now the play is being unwound? Hello! The U.S. Dollar is cratering because astute foreign investors realize Broke Uncle Sam is beyond the point of no return. They know we owe so much and will not be able to pay off much more than the interest, and the dollar has to be cheapening in order to monetize the debt.
With the mainstream media finally noticing the nearly 6% decline in the dollar just this past month, we’re likely to see some correction/consolidation in the near term. But make no mistake about it, Uncle Sam is already in the morgue and funeral plans are underway.
I said my favorite currency was the Canadian dollar. I said when it was 80 that it seemed to me to be a no-brainer to get back to par, which would give a 25% return. We’re about half way there. If the U.S. wasn’t Canada’s biggest trading partner, I would put much of my own money there. But, it’s by far in the best fiscal shape of all the G-7 members. Now if they could only get a real hockey team for their most beautiful city on the Southwest coast.
Precious Metals -
Other than a rare forecast of a correction, yours truly has been very bullish on the precious metals since the spring of 2003. As good of a move as it has been since then, I truly believe we’re only on the threshold of the explosive stage. Despite a near universal dislike for gold among the “happy” people, the mainstream media, and a few perma-bears who have been so wrong for so long (yet for some unknown reason continue to be quoted), gold and silver have outshined just about everything else. The fun can really get started in gold if and when we get above $1,050 and stay there for more than a couple of weeks.
We should see some consolidation. News of IMF sales is welcomed as I believe it will be absorbed without any real damage. For years this fear has hung over gold and will finally be removed. Bring it on!
Base Metals -
While they’ve ridden the wave of “the worse is behind us economically and green shoots will turn into beautiful roses,” I’m afraid as we get closer to 2010 and the realization is we’re at best going to bounce along an economic bottom, base metals won’t be able to go much further to the upside. Because optimism still reigns, we can see higher prices but it’s too late to first begin accumulating them. Copper can see $2.50 but then could see a trading range of $1.75 to $2.50 for quite a while.
U.S. Treasuries -
My no-brainer pick for 2009 was shorting the 10-Year Note and 30-Year Bond. It’s clearly been a no-brainer so far as the interest rates on these two have risen sharply since my pick. It continues to baffle me how the vast majority of pundits can’t grasp the gravity of our situation. I would like to see just one of them explain how we can payback and service 50+ trillion dollars in debt and unfunded liabilities based on expected tax rates and need for government spending in the years ahead. Former Comptroller General David Walker demonstrated it the best a couple of years ago in an interview on 60 Minutes. He clearly showed how on our present course we will truly be broke in the not-too-distant future. That was before the several trillion that has been added to the bill in the last nine months. But don’t take his word on it. The very man who has led this debt explosion, President Obama, recently stated we’re broke. But heck what do those two folks know versus the “happy” people and the “talking heads.” Interest rates can only go higher. My target of 5% on the 10-Year by 2010 is still valid. I believe it can be 10%+ within the next 3-5 years.
Oil -
There’s an old saying that you can’t please all the people all the time. How true. Despite the blessing of an amazing 20-month stretch that included getting long oil at $36 and oil stocks, I seem to have a couple of real “fans” who seemingly must be super wealthy since they send several emails a day claiming I blew it on oil recently by selling out. This is a tough racket but somebody has to do it-LOL! Yes, I sold out but remained bullish long-term on oil. I said the “Peak Oil” theory is coming true. However, as noted earlier, I wanted to lock in as many gains in order to have plenty of capital when most others don’t. The weakening dollar and seasonally bullish fundamentals have lifted oil well above $60. While the momentum can take it to $70, I can’t buy it here with my target for all of 2009 still being only$75. It’s overbought and should consolidate/correct soon.
Political and Geopolitical Concerns -
Just a couple of weeks ago, I stated geopolitical concerns could move to front and center of factors impacting the financial markets. While developments with North Korea certainly made news, the markets largely ignored it. Perhaps it’s because they feel North Korea has cried wolf too often to believe this is anything more than a ploy to get more aid.
Unfortunately, North Korea wasn’t high on my list of geopolitical concerns. Pakistan and the Middle East are. I don’t believe the “happy” crowd has even begun to understand the potential ramifications of what’s unfolding in Pakistan. No matter what the outcome of the present Pakistan military operation, the can of worms has been opened in that country. Sadly, I fully expect this situation to become one of the most pressing geopolitical factors in many years.
Meanwhile in the Middle East, Iran and Israel continue to be top of the list. The upcoming election in Iran should have a major impact on which way this explosive situation moves. With the election only weeks away, we’ll wait to see the results before assessing my present outlook.
Here at home, President Obama is officially “on the clock.” He can no longer point to the past and strictly blame previous misdeeds as the only blame for where we are economically. He has about 3-6 months to demonstrate a significant positive change for the economy or else he should become #1 on the blame game charts. But in the long run, it’s not going to matter, IMHO, as we’re only a couple of years away from the time of reckoning for the sins of several decades of excess spending and debt binging.
My Model Portfolio has been updated.
Please Note – I will be in Vancouver June 2nd through June 9th and speaking at the “World Resource Investment Conference.” I will be emcee and host some panels and workshops. I will also be doing a 90 minute Q & A at the end of the conference.
Excellent piece Peter. bravo!!!
honestly loved reading your story!!
Thanks Peter for your great update as always…
One request I had in mind is, could you please state the risk level for each position? I didn’t follow the site since April, maybe a lot of people are in the same boat. I recall you said NSU is risky call, clearly mark is “risky” level will indicate people don’t deploy too much capital on betting it.
BTW, another question I have on the portfolio is about the weight on each type of positions, apparently it is not equal weighted, could this be somehow illustrated?
thanks, always enjoyed reading your post.
Oh, how do you view Doug Kass March Bottom call:
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10474021/1/kass-rally-through-summer.html
Like has been said before, Dems & Repubs, not a dimes worth of difference between them:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090530/ap_on_re_ca/cn_canada_bush_clinton
Roger.
As a Canadian buying gold, we are not making much headway with the rise in the Canadian dollar. Is there a way for Canadians to win in the gold play?
Peter, thank you for forecast and the lesson on reading the markets. I heard a forecaster say the stock prices are based on three pillars — fundamental, technical, and geopolitical. I strongly believe there is a fourth pillar, the psychological. The markets are nothing if not a consensus of opinion, and I think to know crowd psychology as well as one’s own personality/attitude/risk tolerance/belief system is perhaps the most important aspect of all. How else can an investor get the courage to go against the crowd when everyone else is calling them a fool? Again, thanks for trying to teach us how to fish as well as just giving us the fish.
P.S. Who is Jojo? I thought you let someone be your guest forecaster and I was just about to go “lame…” and click past it!
#5 Roger … Incredible public ‘Love Fest’ speech from Clinton / Bush speech. Very useful and interesting update from Mr. Peter G.
Hi Peter,
Thanks as always.
Would you advise moving any remaining oil positions into gold now or as cash ?
The fun can really get started in gold if and when we get above $1,050 and stay there for more than a couple of weeks
(Peter G.)
Peter, I don’t mean to play devil advocate, but why are you so bullish on precious metals but then you use the word “IF and WHEN”, instead of “Not a matter of IF but WHEN” ??
Do you think there’s a chance that we might not get above $1,050 in Gold? Is this why you use the word “IF”?
I think every precious metals investor should read this article Peter put in his latest update http://www.tomaveni.com/Commentary/Nadler-01.htm
I fully agree with it. Nadler is an ass hole.
Peter,
Thanks for all the hard work and dedication. Excellent piece. I am glad you were able to get it out to us before Monday. Keep up the good work.
Ryan
You gladdened my heart on your disclosure of being a dyed in the wool craps player , does that also mean you are superstitious when it comes to the game ? In over 40 yrs of addiction to the game, I play only because it’s like a love affair, I can’t get enough of it.
With the possibility there are other players out there, can any one guess the number of bets that can be made on a vegas crap table ? count the wrong way bets also.
120.
To Susan MacPhail
Claymore Funds last week introduced their new HEDGED gold fund. The symbol is cgl.un on the tsx. Depending on what happens with gold and our currency this may be of benefit or not in the short run. Longer term it seems like this should be better for us Canadians. This fund is closed ended however if after six months it trades below the nav it will become an etf. I hope this helps,the Claymore staff are very informative if you require more info…..Best of luck.
Am I the only one who thinks this Mother of all Bear Market Rallies has another leg up?
I agree with Peter about the trading range. On the DOW, there is major resistance at 10,500, but we are only halfway there. There is also resistance at the Jan. highs (9,000), but the Nasdaq, the TSX and the SOX have already surpassed their respective Jan. highs – and they often lead sustainable rallies.
Yes, the transports are lagging, but only since early May when the correction started, and there are some signs that they may soon turn up yet again. Furthermore, the Baltic Dry Index is charging higher which often leads the market in general.
Even our current correction seems well controlled and orderly (so far). I just have to use the word “contained” within a narrow trading range. [The sub-prime problem was also "contained," remember?]
I see no need to jump in with both feet here, but watch for a breakout or breakdown of our current trading range. If there is a breakout and a second leg up, it would probably be more of a stock-pickers market than the first leg.
I submit this as my application to be a commentator on TOUT-TV. lol
could someone please double check my thinking.
If nak was purchased by a canadian on nov 29/08 for US$3.36 at 1.2372 bank of canada exchange rate, it would cost C$ 4.16.
If sold on May 29/09 at US$8.11 at 1.09 exchange rate netting C$8.84 obtaining a 113% gain.
But, if ndm was purchased on Nov29 at C$ 3.33 and then sold on May 29 at C$8.88 the gain would be 167%
Are my calculations correct?
and if so, why the difference?
thank you in advance
John, My charts have NAK around $2.75 on Nov. 29, not $3.36.
Another great forecast.
For Crusoe and Tony –
The psychological aspect of trading/investing is the most important aspect, and money management is also very important. Peter alluded to both points. To be able to trade/invest with confidence you need a trading plan that suits your personality and risk profile.
For risk control you have to know where you are going to exit your position before you get in and risk only 2% or so of your account value on the trade. Your stop loss point will determine how many securities you buy. Another rule of thumb is not to have anymore than 6-10% of your account value at risk at any time. This way you can ratchet up your stops as the market advances and stay with the trend until you are stopped out. You can also sleep at night knowing the market will tell you when to get out. Capital preservation is key.
Setting appropriate stops and having the discipline to follow you rules can be tricky.
If you need more info, just contact me. I’ll be glad to help you out.
As far a determining what to buy, you have it right here.
I hope everybody knows how lucky you are to have someone like Peter’s guidance.
What a breath of fresh air.
Thanks Again Peter!
It was asked by a Susan on this board already : the Canadians don’t make the profit in gold like the US people do and will. David Bensimon ( he is also on BNN June 1st ..gold up ? ) see’s the can.$ at $ 1.60’s in the future. That will eat into the profit of this gold bull. Can’t have the cake and eat it too ?
Will Peter kindly have an answer or maybe just a comment for the Canadians with a strong currency ?
I have to agree with many here , Peter is good . You can trust him with ” which way it’s going ” . As long as we all know, that nobody is 100 % right all the time but Peter’s record is better than a few I dealt with … J. Dines.
Enjoying reading your articles, Peter.
Heidi
Klaus
your are correct, history charts for Nov 28 show US$2.80
the US$3.36 I used came from the model portfolio
Fred C.
As to Jon Nadler, I have spouted off about him on my blog several times.
My main issue with him is that he insults the very type of person who is probably his employer’s best customer.
Since then and more recently, however, I have notice him to be still anti-gold except for that 10% insurance policy, although at least not quite as insulting to Kitco’s customer base.
I would like him to postulate in his writing some time – what would happen to the price of gold if EVERY investor bought 10% as an insurance policy?
(answer: sky high gold price – there just ain’t enough of it to go around)
Regards,
Roger.
To DSG: thanks for the reply. Lots of good advice there
VIEWS FROM AFAR – STRAIGHT OUT OF RUSSIA – SHOCKING PUTIN COMMENTS
A Pravda News Editorial On Obama & Marxism
It contains more than a semblance Of Truth – Received From a Friend
——————————————————
Please take the time to read this Russian newspaper article. It comes from a country who has experienced Marxism first hand and, in my opinion, it should serve as a major wake-up call to the people of America. After you read this, pick up a copy of Liberty and Tyranny by Mark Levin …….brilliant!!
I have personally verified this by “pulling up” the May 27th edition of the Pravda English edition and the article is legitimate. Just another example of what is appearing in the foreign press about our President. Too bad less than 1% of our citizens will see this. You must realize though that this is not the old hardline Pravda from the KGB days but this is an off-shoot that reflects on current events from a Russian perspective.
American capitalism gone with a whimper
27.04.2009
Source: Pravda.Ru
URL: http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/107459-american_capitalism-0
It must be said, that like the breaking of a great dam, the American decent into Marxism is happening with breath taking speed, against the back drop of a passive, hapless sheeple, excuse me dear reader, I meant people.
True, the situation has been well prepared on and off for the past century, especially the past twenty years. The initial testing grounds was conducted upon our Holy Russia and a bloody test it was. But we Russians would not just roll over and give up our freedoms and our souls, no matter how much money Wall Street poured into the fists of the Marxists.
Those lessons were taken and used to properly prepare the American populace for the surrender of their freedoms and souls, to the whims of their elites and betters.
First, the population was dumbed down through a politicized and substandard education system based on pop culture, rather then the classics. Americans know more about their favorite TV dramas then the drama in DC that directly affects their lives. They care more for their “right” to choke down a McDonalds burger or a BurgerKing burger than for their constitutional rights. Then they turn around and lecture us about our rights and about our “democracy”. Pride blind the foolish.
Then their faith in God was destroyed, until their churches, all tens of thousands of different “branches and denominations” were for the most part little more then Sunday circuses and their televangelists and top protestant mega preachers were more then happy to sell out their souls and flocks to be on the “winning” side of one pseudo Marxist politician or another. Their flocks may complain, but when explained that they would be on the “winning” side, their flocks were ever so quick to reject Christ in hopes for earthly power. Even our Holy Orthodox churches are scandalously liberalized in America.
The final collapse has come with the election of Barack Obama. His speed in the past three months has been truly impressive. His spending and money printing has been a record setting, not just in America’s short history but in the world. If this keeps up for more then another year, and there is no sign that it will not, America at best will resemble the Wiemar Republic and at worst Zimbabwe.
These past two weeks have been the most breath taking of all. First came the announcement of a planned redesign of the American Byzantine tax system, by the very thieves who used it to bankroll their thefts, loses and swindles of hundreds of billions of dollars. These make our Russian oligarchs look little more then ordinary street thugs, in comparison. Yes, the Americans have beat our own thieves in the shear volumes. Should we congratulate them?
These men, of course, are not an elected panel but made up of appointees picked from the very financial oligarchs and their henchmen who are now gorging themselves on trillions of American dollars, in one bailout after another. They are also usurping the rights, duties and powers of the American congress (parliament). Again, congress has put up little more then a whimper to their masters.
Then came Barack Obama’s command that GM’s (General Motor) president step down from leadership of his company. That is correct, dear reader, in the land of “pure” free markets, the American president now has the power, the self given power, to fire CEOs and we can assume other employees of private companies, at will. Come hither, go dither, the centurion commands his minions.
So it should be no surprise, that the American president has followed this up with a “bold” move of declaring that he and another group of unelected, chosen stooges will now redesign the entire automotive industry and will even be the guarantee of automobile policies. I am sure that if given the chance, they would happily try and redesign it for the whole of the world, too. Prime Minister Putin, less then two months ago, warned Obama and UK’s Blair, not to follow the path to Marxism, it only leads to disaster. Apparently, even though we suffered 70 years of this Western sponsored horror show, we know nothing, as foolish, drunken Russians, so let our “wise” Anglo-Saxon fools find out the folly of their own pride.
Again, the American public has taken this with barely a whimper…but a “freeman” whimper.
So, should it be any surprise to discover that the Democratically controlled Congress of America is working on passing a new regulation that would give the American Treasury department the power to set “fair” maximum salaries, evaluate performance and control how private companies give out pay raises and bonuses? Senator Barney Franks, a social pervert basking in his homosexuality (of course, amongst the modern, enlightened American societal norm, as well as that of the general West, homosexuality is not only not a looked down upon life choice, but is often praised as a virtue) and his Marxist enlightenment, has led this effort. He stresses that this only affects companies that receive government monies, but it is retroactive and taken to a logical extreme, this would include any company or industry that has ever received a tax break or incentive.
The Russian owners of American companies and industries should look thoughtfully at this and the option of closing their facilities down and fleeing the land of the Red as fast as possible. In other words, divest while there is still value left.
The proud American will go down into his slavery with out a fight, beating his chest and proclaiming to the world, how free he really is. The world will only snicker.
Stanislav Mishin
© 1999-2009. «PRAVDA.Ru». When reproducing our materials in whole or in part, hyperlink to PRAVDA.Ru should be made. The opinions and views of the authors do not always coincide with the point of view of PRAVDA.Ru’s editors.
Pete,
“Looking Back to Look Forward” is one of your best. Over time, I have read literally hundreds of books, papers, and blogs to explaining the psychology of the small investor, struggling to profit in the rise and fall of the markets, and rarely doing so. You have captured the essence of the subject and provided answers in a few thoughtful, candid and well chosen paragraphs. This is a keeper, and something that I recommend should be read again from time to time to test our perception of reality in our investment decisions.
Mike
SGGroup,
Quite an offshoot. I don’t know what this new Pravda is all about, but did you notice some of the stories on that page? They change frequently, but these are some of the headlines that were on when I looked:
People communicate with ghosts during sleep
Doctors grow man’s micro-penis on his arm
Religious dogmas destroy human sex life
Largest diamond in galaxy predicts future of solar system
Hot Russian blonde sells virginity online
The world’s most evil fish invades Britain
Monroe hitchhiking naked
Another civilization may live inside Earth’s hollows
Underwear perfectly reflects history of human civilization
By the way, that “Russian newspaper article” was just an opinion piece. I was not news, or fact, just opinion – sort of like Fox “News.”
From the same Russian newspaper, here is the “article” on ghosts:
Most ghosts are spirits. Our Spirit is that nonphysical part of us. We have two parts to us, the physical and the nonphysical. We see the physical part of ourselves through our eyes. We see the physical universe through our eyes as well.
Anyone who is dead is a ghost. And we know there are lots of dead people out there. There are more ghosts than living people. Ghosts are all around us. Ghosts interact with us on an emotional level. They try to influence us to get us to react to them.
The good ghosts could be considered to be our allies and spirit guides. They communicate with us on an emotional level, encouraging us, inspiring us, sometimes protecting us, even warning us of potential dangers ahead.
The bad ghosts could be considered to be our enemies and they try to affect us on emotional levels in negative ways. A negative ghost will usually appear during arguments, fights, criminal activity, unhappy or depressive states of mind, severe substance abuse, and just about any negative event that could possibly be aggravated by an unseen strong emotional presence.
That strong emotional presence that is unseen is usually a ghost.
Most ghosts are good, and have good intentions. Ghosts also appear very often during our dreams. It is natural for us to want to communicate with loved ones and friends who have passed on. Most people communicate with ghosts during sleep. During our waking state, certain emotionally charged environments like old buildings, homes and apartments, violent activity or crime scenes, severe substance abuse, anger and depressive states of mind, can create an atmosphere where ghosts can be seen more easily. We all generate and release emotional energy into our environments. This can accumulate in our living and working environments, and attract ghosts.
Negative ghosts feed on fear, anger and rage. Negative ghosts are the only ones we need to worry about. Never be afraid of a ghost. Never panic. They pick up on that, and it makes them stronger, more bold, and more connected to you or your property.
It is very natural for us to have positive ghosts around. They are Spirit guides. They could be our loved ones or friends we have known. Good ghost do not live in our homes. That’s important to understand. They have better things to do. They do communicate with us and try to help us in many ways. But they are not attached to us, our homes or our businesses. They’re not around us all the time. They give us our space.
Nice to know that ghosts give us our space, but I don’t think I’m going to read the other “articles” (especially the micro-penis on the arm story – lol).
I here Peter and others like Jim Sinclair talk about the dollar crash and gold appreciation. What I would like to know more about how to counter this and make money off of these expectations.
Should we be buying the canadian currency symbol FXC?
Should we be buying the gold ETF or better yet the double up gold symbol DGP?
What is the best way to short the 10-Year Note and 30-Year Bond Peter mentions?
What is the best way to short the dollar?
Need strategy help.
Thanks
WHEN COMMIES RUN WILD
Playing Cards, Roulette & Dice Games On The Titanic
A Scene From The Twilight Zone (An Analogy For Amusement)
The date is April 15, 1912, you’re aboard the Titanic on the maiden voyage from England spending a leisurely evening in the Gambling Lounge. Some play poker, others Roulette and Dice Games while a small quartet plays soft music in the background.
Such oppulence and splendor, but the pleasant surroundings are about to be broken by an obvious shuddering of the ship which breaks everyone’s attention momentarily from their games. The guests pause for a moment, their eyes wandering around the room in wonder, then quickly returning to the table games.
Deciding to take a cigarette break and cool air, you excuse yourself from the friendly card game with passengers and step out to the main deck. Greeted with the chill of night air, your tuxedo is quite inadequate without a top coat, but you walk toward the rail.
There’s ice blocks and chips abound on the deck where you stand. Careful not to mark your Patton Leather shoes and stepping over the ice, you peer curiously into the night looking back toward the ship’s wake. A towering iceburg is visible not far off and instantly the connection is apparent that the Titanic has struck an Iceberg.
Stepping gingerly over the ice shards, careful not to fall, you run from the stern toward the bow to inform the crew. The passengers are gathered beneath the steering control cabin and the Captain with the crew are cheering and clapping with the passengers.
Glancing over the bow, another Iceburg looms and the passengers are cheering as the Titanic heads for yet another collision. You call to the First Mate and then to the Captain warning of the collision, and they reply that “This will make it better”. We’re trying to close the hole caused by the first collision explains a crewman and there’s a lot more icebergs out here that we can hit yet.
You shake your head in disbelief yelling that this will only cause more damage and after a loud protest, you’re told – “We’re in control and if you don’t return to your quarters the guard master will see that you’re restrained”.
Running back to the gambling lounge, catching your breathe, you announce loudly upon entering the room that “THE TITANIC HAS STRUCK AN ICEBERG AND THE CAPTAIN PLANS TO HIT A SERIES OF ICEBERGS!” The quartet plays uninterrupted by the outburst. Most people do look up from their games momentarily. Expressing annoyance, their interest quickly returns to the games.
Shocked into disbelief, you wander back into the chill of the night air. Again the ship shudders and cheers go up from the passengers and crew. You say to yourself that this can’t be happening, but yes it is, and this is not The Twight Zone. You’re not aboard the Titanic but a citizen of the United States and here’s the next Iceberg. There’s a lot more out there to come before the engines die………….
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Nancy Pelosi persists to propose ‘Windfall Tax on Retirement Income’
Adding a tax to your retirement is simply another way of saying to the American people, you’re so darn stupid that we’re going to keep doing this until we drain every cent from you. That’s what the Speaker of the House is saying. Read below……………
Nancy Pelosi wants a Windfall Tax on Retirement Income. In other words tax what you have made by investing toward your retirement. You aren’t going to believe this.
Madam speaker Nancy Pelosi wants to put a Windfall Tax on all stock market profits (including Retirement fund, 401K and Mutual Funds! Alas, it is true – all to help the 12 Million Illegal Immigrants and other unemployed Minorities!
This woman is frightening.
She quotes…’ We need to work toward the goal of equalizing income, didn’t Marx say something like this?), in our country and at the same time limiting the amount the rich can invest.’
When asked how these new tax dollars would be spent, she replied:
‘We need to raise the standard of living of our poor, unemployed and minorities. For example, we have an estimated 12 million illegal immigrants in our country who need our help along with millions of unemployed minorities. Stock market windfall profits taxes could go a long way to guarantee these people the standard of living they would like to have as ‘Americans’
So we will Work Save & Invest for retirement, then watch the government share it with others who have not worked.
Send it on to your friends. I just did!! This lady is A Communist and she is the speaker of the house!
Well, Comrade Klauss Wilmann, the Russians really don’t have ‘Freedom Of Press’, and this is the sort of trivial stuff that they report. Take jabs at the U.S.? Surely, they can do that and there’s a lot of truth in the editorial or news report.
Silencing of criticism is on the table too in Washington. That’s one of the other icebergs ahead. They just don’t know which device to chose for effective subtleness. How can The U.S. Commies cover up extinguishing ‘Freedom Of Speech’ It’ll be here soon enough. So many icebergs yet ahead.
So after entertaining you, “Comrade Klauss” I should like to hear from you and any others who may care to participate – How Any Of Obama’s ‘Changes’ have done anything but to drive us into poverty. Take off the gloves and talk economics … BUT TELL US WHAT FORM OF ECONOMIC DISTRIBUTION THAT YOU CHAMPION. Don’t blame Bush or predecessors, just focus on Obama’s legislation, takeovers and proposals.
You can’t reply intelligently, can you? Nor can the other Commies hanging around here. Let’s face it, you have no economic sensibility, just animosity toward the Capitalist Free Enterprise System, Comrade Klauss. A lot of people can’t make it under the system and they hate it. Don’t take it as a personal attack upon you, but a challenge to make economic sense of Obama’s policies.
Hi Klaus
I have been trying to find an ETF to track/ trade the Baltic Dry Index, but have not found one. Do you know of one?
Thanks
JD
JD:
The BDI can be tracked using the ticker symbol $BDI on Stockcharts.com.
I don’t know of any way to trade the index directly, but there is an ETF that tracks the shipping companies – SEA. It’s only been around for about 10 months and is extremely volatile – lots of fun for trading. It had a 16% gain last week.
I watch the BDI because it often leads the general market by a month or so.
SGGroup,
Fellow Comrade, I have no problem with the capitalist system. Seems to me that Wall Street bankers and large automakers have difficulty making it under the system.
Exactly what part of the “Capitalist Free Enterprise System” privatizes profits and socializes losses? And exactly how is this Obama’s fault?
Hi Peter, first, many, many thanks for sharing your insights with us on this splendid blog. Second, getting back to your comments last week, one way to to lose some weight forever is to consider the principles set out in the book “Fit For Life”. The authors propose a rather simple lifestyle (eating habits)change as opposed to a diet. Best of luck to you.
Dear Mr. Grandich
I worked in the investment community for 35 years and believe you’ve managed to capture the essence of its existence. But you go even further by sharing your own mistakes and faults. This sincerity is very rare and a tribute to your parents who raised you and the faith you obviously possess.
There are only a handful of experts worth their weight in gold and you’re definitely one of them. Keep up the great work and know your services are helping many like myself.
Have a great day!
Regards,
Charles B. Norkus
Peter,
Your right, that you are not always perfect in your predictions, you said “Now if they could only get a real hockey team for their most beautiful city on the Southwest coast.” I think you meant “Now if they could only get a real hockey team for their most beautiful city on the Southeast coast. (Montreal)”. We have the best hockey team and the most beautiful city far none.
Can somebody please get us (Toronto) a real hockey team? I’d even be happy with the Canucks.
Klaus The devils have won 3 Stanley Cups and 95% of sports fan’s in NJ can’t name 3 players. We’re totally undeserving of this team. I’m willing to give Vancouver our team if they stop giving me stock certificates to hang on my wall.
Klaus
Thanks for your info on $BDI
JD