I want to start off with the “Walking Dead” U.S. Dollar. For the umpteen time the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd is ignoring a critical economic factor because the ramifications of it don’t fit into their “perfect” world. Make no mistake about it the decline of the world’s “current” reserve currency is far more important than any “green shoot.” Just like the American public paid little heed to the real estate and mortgage bubble, you can bet your sweet bippy they have no clue what’s happening with their terminally ill Uncle Sam paper.
For months now, we’ve seen and heard from around the world how key economic powers want to, or already have, moved away from the U.S. dollar. An even more important fact is how many world players have rallied behind the U.S. Dollar? If your answer is the same number of Vancouver Canucks Stanley Cup wins, you’re correct.
Don’t expect many in the regular financial media, main street financial firms (those who are left and have come out from their bunkers) and especially the Obama administration/Fed. In fact, I’m waiting for them to tell us what the last four administrations have said -“We’ve a strong dollar policy”. For the love of God pray they never employ a weak dollar policy (actually they don’t have to since we’ve have one already).
Meanwhile, the 10yr. Treasury did as expected and merely rallied to former support a little over 3%. I’ve little doubt that the first people starting to get a whiff of the increasing weakness in the “dead man walking” currency is the bond market. Stay tuned as this should get interesting in the days and weeks ahead.
Despite a knucklehead or two perma-precious metals bears who despite being wrong since 2002 on the metals continue to be quoted (I’ve been wrong but not for 7 years in a row. Unfortunately the media never bother to check how wrong these two characters constantly are. It’s not jealousy but I get questions about what they’re saying because people assume since their quoted they must be accurate-nothing could be further when it comes to JN and LK), gold and silver remain in a stealth bull market. This base has been building for months and a break out could be near.
The weak dollar has given a boost to oil and while my target of $60 has been touched, I continue to believe we’re overdue for a correction/consolidation. A close above the magical $60 could be the trigger.
Today’s volume was extremely weak in equities and the declining VIX number actually has bearish implications.
In regards to the model portfolio, CDE-NYSE was closed out today at $1.37 and KMK-TSX-V was added at $1.03.
Not surprising, many people were asking about Northern Dynasty today. I’ve to walk a fine line due to the fact that I’m a compensated consultant to the firm, I own lots of shares and I’m either going to receive lots of Christmas presents from friends and relatives or have lots of coal for the winter.
Today’s volume may be one of the highest since I came involve with the stock back under a buck. We also had the highest close in many months. I’m a broken record but how does 50% of the single largest undeveloped copper/gold project remain in the hands of NDM indefinitely? I said it before and I’ll say it again, IMHO how does Anglo allow anyone to acquire the other 50% for anything less than the cost they will incur to earn their 50%? Heck in this day and age anything possible but I suspect if and when there’s a bid, the first bid won’t be the last bid. Lets not forget NDM management has said on several occasions they were expecting a major financial transaction on NDM. That in itself was telling.
I failed to mentioned another critical factor regarding KMK-TSX-V. They recently announced a poison pill. IMHO, HD doesn’t do that as a mere exercise but who knows for sure? Shortly after I posted my KMK comments the company made this announcement. This is a very bullish development.
Finally, Anooraq Resources conference call today was most interesting. A recording of it should be available shortly.
For those of you attending the Vancouver Show in June, please note i will be doing a special Q & A right after the main show closes Monday night.
There seems to be a handful of people who make comments daily. What I find interesting is the few who take issue with Mr. Grandich are among those daily posters. Why would someone who seems to not value Mr. Grandich’s views spend so much time here? Me, I can’t stand knitting or ice skating. I never ever visit knitting or ice skating blogs. I have a feeling these few come here hoping they can take issue with Mr. Grandich. I betcha they are also the type who love to hear themselves talk. Ironically, the man they take issue with in a poor manner allows their posts. Just another sign of the quality of man Mr. Grandich continues to demonstrate he is.
I forgot to speak to the poster that rags on Mr. Grandich’s past picks. I have been reading his letter since it was a website. For every so called dog, Mr. Grandich had winners, many of which went up triple digit. Even the ones mentioned as dogs saw triple digit gains before losing. Did Mr. Grandich put a gun to your head to buy or not to sell? Grow up and take responsibility of your own actions. I bet you never once wrote about any winning stocks or markets calls of his. Like I noted in my last post, these people like to hear themselves pound their chest in the safety of their keyboard.
If you follow the hyperlink on my name you will go to my website where I write about investment newsletters (and investing in general – mostly resource based).
It’s amazing how many people will not plunk down $50 per quarter for a quality investment newsletter that can make them (or save them) thousands per year; they think everything on the internet should be free, I guess. Many newsletter subscriptions are in the thousands per year. Sometimes you get what you pay for, but obviously Peter way over-delivers here for free.
The only reason I would want to bring up any of Peter’s past losing picks, and I did on one occasion, is when I hear someone new to Peter praising his “perfect record”. I just want those folks to know that Peter is not perfect, as no one is.
I know Peter doesn’t want people to make the mistake of betting “all in” on his picks. I’ve seen this happen before when someone gets enamored with a particular guru. Usually ends badly.
I think (and hope) Peter would be the first to agree he doesn’t want to see anyone make this mistake.
As Peter has said, he is not a “legend in his own mind”. I’m sure he doesn’t want to be a legend in anyone else’s either.
As my friends at The Trend Letter say “It’s your money, take control”. (Similar to what Don Watts said above)
Best regards,
Roger.
“I’ve seen this happen before when someone gets enamored with a particular guru. Usually end badly.’
Yeah like Doug Casey! I see you touted your website. Wow, it use to be another casey promotional arm and guess what, most of your newsletter comments are from casey research. I see you also receive advertising fees. Your previous comments are now much easier to understand motive. Amazing!
NAK closed at $7.25; post-market trading as high as $7.39. Maybe we will see $8.00 tomorrow?
Rick,
Doug Casey is not perfect either; but he’s made me more money than any other guru.. bar none. They offer me material to print and if I agree with it, I print it.
Casey Research is HUGE on the “free ride formula”. that means when a stock doubles, sell half and take your money off the table. At that point, the worst you can do is break even. If you get in too late, NO ONE can help you. You make money when you buy, not when you sell. When Casey feels it’s too late, they recommend buying in tranches and using stink bids or even stay away period. Not everyone listens.
Doug Casey is also the FIRST person to say that the stocks he recommends are burning matches; don’t fall in love with them. From your comments I presume you must have gotten in late.
Do you have a problem with Kitco ? Almost everyone whose material they link to has something to sell. Yet they are one of the most respected precious metals sites on the web. And paid ads abound on their site besides.
I get practically nothing from Casey and I offer space to anyone else who wants to make an offer. My website is my hobby, not a money maker I assure you. If I spent the time doing work for my clients instead of managing that site I would make 100 or 200 times the money. It’s not there for the money, oh boy, it’s not for the money.
I NEVER personally promote something there that I don’t believe in and/or haven’t tried. I even give Jim Cramer (aka Booyah Clown) credit when he deserves it. I speak the good and I speak the bad. Try to call it as I see it.
I also write positive comments about the Trend Letter, and I’ve never received a dime from them.
I also write positive comments about Peter Grandich, and Peter has never paid me a dime.
If the Aden Sisters offered me material to print, I would print it too, but they don’t. Casey does.
At one time I paid $400/month (briefly) for Dennis Gartman’s letter (It’s at least $500/month now), and while I respect his work and work ethic, his advice did NOT make me money. I dropped it. Gartman’s gold trading I have commented on regularly, and he is usually wrong of late. But I still give him credit when due. And I tell my readers what I know about his service.
I’ve been in the investment world for 25 years; I was a series 7 registered broker during 1987. I’ve seen ‘em come and I’ve seen ‘em go. Made my mistakes along with the rest. Probably more.
I was there trying to tell 401(k) holders of tech stocks that the party was over. They would ask “how low can it go?” And my response was always the same – ZERO! Did not make me popular, but did you notice how many DID go to Zero? (someone was mentioning Nortel here just yesterday, I think)
When I have time to write my own material, I write it. When I don’t and someone offers material to print that I believe is of value to my readers, I print it.
What would you do?
My goal is to disseminate information; I invite comments; few ever do. Those newsletter writers who have made me money I want others to know about. Those that haven’t I might mention, but I try not to trash. Just let people know what I’ve found.
If you find fault in any of that please feel free to contact me through my website, comment on a post or even comment here – although Peter would probably prefer it not here.
Regards,
Roger.
With the large stash of gold our gov’t has in ft. knox, I wonder if it is the consideration why the dollar is stalled from dropping. While Peter has a great track record , he is one among others who are also gifted.
In my 45 yrs of being a student of the market, I have seen many newsletter writers, some really good , some really bad, Peter is close to the really good.
The chart posted here could rally up from here. Why ? It’s way too obvious, and to me I would consider the nature of paradox, and some way out fundmentals.
I just registered for the June conference Peter – see you on the 7th!
Ron in Vancouver
Roger
Gartman is a Booyah in a suit. Neither of them has ever made any serious money trading for themselves or for their clients/subscribers/audience. Cramer used to be a second rate trader that wrote articles in trade magazines to supplement his income and Dennis is a pompous twit whose trading record is what you said it is. Nadler at Kitco is so hopeless that everyone ignores him now but we all wonder why Kitco still employs someone that is so negative about their own products.
Doug is a class act who’s been around a long time and knows the industry well. Jim Dines is also OK but “different”.
Do you think this is what we are up against?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mx71UcLVWM0
Some of these malaises (below) are causes and others are effects, but which ever they are, they’re all problems and the market in my opinion is detached from reality. It’s caught in a momentum move by investors and institutions afraid of missing the bottom. The S & P 500 is selling for about 38 times earnings and there’s nothing on the horizon to suggest an upturn in corporate earnings anytime soon.
** Cap & Trade appears to be heading for possible passage and will be the biggest tax in the history of mankind.
** National Healthcare likely to be passed this year can’t find financing without tax increases or deficit spending.
** Quantitative Easing including Trillions carried on the Federal Reserves balance sheet without any official recording of the deficits. The books are cooked here too.
** Mountainous annual deficits currently running near $2 Trillion annually, and wasteful government spending on projects that will create little or no stimulus. An expanding welfare state even to the extent of Federal ‘Bonusing’ of state governments for adding to the roles.
** An illiquid and depressed real estate market that holds no hope of improving any time soon. Even Federal tax credits to first time homebuyers have done little or nothing to improve the real estate market. It probably worsened the problem by pulling in new buyers and creating a vacumn of demand in coming months. Some say that Commercial Real Estate has a good ways down to go and is trailing residential real estate.
** Nationalized Banks and Government Car companies.
** State Governments drowning in deficits even with Federal subsidies while government continues to grow.
** 45% of Junk Bonds expected to default within the next 24 months.
This could go on quite a bit more, but it does seem that we’re descending into an ‘Economic Black Hole’, and the general stock market is detached from fundamentals. It’s got one thing going for it – A Still Strong Tape. But something will happen before very long. It could occur tomorrow, next week or later, but eventually we will revert to the main trend which is still down in my opinion.
Maybe it will be the hard reality of a GM Bankruptcy, or Congressional passage of the disastrous ‘Cap & Trade’ Bill, or simply investors deciding it’s gone on far enough, taking profits. They’ll be joined by people who’ve held on hoping for higher prices and it might well be a plunge as the public returns to proper perspective of our economic malaise, snapping out of the ‘Green Shoots’ euphoria. Wait and see.
It is great to own Canadian stocks. I hope that i can retire someday in Canada and live off of the health sstem, My grandmother was a native born canadian.
Ok, I figured out who JN is (and yes, I totally agree it’s really weird that a permagoldbear like him would be employed by Kitco. Maybe they trot him out when they are running low on inventory), but who is LK?
I know JN is Jon Nadler but who is LK?
sorry Tony, didn’t see that you asked the same question! ditto on Jon Nadler. I’ve been exchanging e mails with him for over a year and he’s totally hopeless. I think he enjoys being a contra-contrarian! I once enraged him so much, he called on the phone to defend his postion. He sounded quite rational actually but that didn’t persuade me. i believe he has a hidden agenda. But the burning question is why is Kitco putting up with him?
to: #9 Drake At a time when peter G. issued his sell signal , Oct.,’07, Dines was issuing glowing and erroneous reports..Didn’t you notice he took down his own portfolio by nearly 90 percent and many of his subscribers with him. While Peter is close to being a really good Guru, Dines has fallen to the really bad adviser. Just ask those who lost Beau coup money on his stratagies. You are right in one regard, Dines is different (and arrogant, sly,shifty…….)
LK Leonard Kaplan The man has been bearish since $375 gold.
NAK off and running this morning…opened at $7.46 and currently at $7.82 up $0.57 (7.86%) on over 200K volume. Yesterday, I said maybe $8 possible today….heck, maybe we will see $9! GO NAK GO!!!
Joe, too funny we both asked the same question. I was thinking maybe it was Laurence Kotlikoff, but I didn’t recall him saying anything about gold.
On a different subject — the US dollar — one of the other analysts I follow and trust beside Peter G. is Frank Barbera. With regards to the S&P500, he contends that there is no way this is a bull market when you get a sharply downward 200 DMA curve running into an upward moving daily price chart. Well, looking at this graph of the US$, are we not seeing the inverse of this, a downward daily chart running into an upward 200 DMA curve? I agree the US$ fundamental seem inescapable and I am hardly a technical analyst, but anyone else have any thoughts on this one?
Tony, Frank Barbera is ok, nothing super special of a guru. I think his track record is no big deal, but I could be wrong. He usually is way in advance for a trend change. One time I was thinking to subscribe to him back last March, so I got a free newsletter from him which was his latest at that time. Now we’re talking March 2009 here. He was predicting a possibility of GDX going down in the $20. We all know GDX never went in the $20, it’s actually trading TWICE that level today. I’m not bashing Barbera, just stating few facts here, and am glad I never subscribed to his newsletter
Chris, thanks for the input. I know Frank has had some huge misses as well as big hits…I think the week before the general market took off he was calling for a crash that would eventually lead to 400 on the S&P500 by November. He did call the bottom of the GDX last November, which I managed to profit from. I guess when I said I “trust him” I mean that his arguments are usually well-reasoned and seem to make sense. If anything, I think he might overanalyze things sometimes, and that leads to, as you say, being way in advance of a trend change. It takes some time for the information and sentiment to disseminate through the market. What I do like about Frank as well as Peter G. is that they are not afraid to call a bull a bull and a bear a bear, which is quite rare.