Agoracom Blog

Grandich Model Portfolio Performance Is Tough To Beat

Posted by AGORACOM - George at 9:06 AM on Monday, June 1st, 2009

Good morning to you all.  As many of you know, Peter has maintained a model portfolio for the past several months for the purposes of PYMWYMI – Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is.  Basically, the portfolio is a way of tracking his market sentiment and for the rest of us to measure whether he actually knows what he’s talking about.  Personally, I joined forces with Peter because of his uncanny ability to call tops and bottoms across the broad markets or specific sectors – and I’m sure many of you are here for the same reason.

Today, I want to start showcasing Peter and his fantastic analysis to an even larger audience.   His sold positions are documented and have done extraordinarily well.  I’ve copied and pasted them below.  However, to make sure he isn’t accused of pulling off a Lenny Dykstra – the act of posting your profitable positions but keeping your losing positions open until they turn positive some day (if ever) – I thought it was really important to keep track of his open positions.

For now, I’m doing so via a personal portfolio and have pasted a snapshot of it below.  This is a snapshot of his open US positions and was taken after the close on Friday, so it is up to date.  I weighted each position equally by purchasing $100 of each, or as fractionally close to it as possible.

Canadian positions will be posted in the next 48 hours.  My tech guys are working on finding a portfolio that can be shared with the public and automatically upated.

In the meantime, enjoy and please feel free to share.  I will.

PETER GRANDICH OPEN POSITIONS – US

Peter Grandich Open Positions - US

PETER GRANDICH SOLD POSITIONS – ALL

Symbol        Date Rec.      Price                Date Sell        Price       % Gain or Loss
DXO-NYSE    12/29/08     $2.01               5/11/09       $3.45        72%
OIL-NYSE       12/29/08    $20.35             5/11/09       $21.06        3%
HOU-TSX       12/29/08    $9.75**            5/11/09       $7.24       -21%
IYE-NYSE        12/29/08   $26.81             5/11/09       $30.11      12%
XLE-NYSE       12/29/08    $45.16             5/11/09      $51           13%
HEU-TSX         12/29/08   $3.89              5/11/09        $6.55       68%
GMF-NYSE    3/9/09         $37.75            5/11/09        $56          48%
EWH-NYSE     3/9/09        $9.03              5/11/09        $12.76      41%
IEO-NYSE        3/9/09       $30.25            5/11/09         $46.02     52%
XOP-NYSE      3/9/09        $23.81            5/11/09         $35.72     50%
PHO-NYSE      3/9/09        $10.41            5/11/09        $14.29     37%
XFN-TSX          3/9/09       $12.02              5/11/09      $18.58     55%
COSWF-PK     3/9/09        $15.63             5/11/09        $24.79     59%
GXC-NYSE      3/9/09        $37.81             5/12/09       $53.99     43%
EWC-NYSE      3/9/09        $14.03            5/15/09       $20.03      43%
UCO-NYSE      3/9/09        $8.18              5/15/09        $9.12       11%
XOM-NYSE      3/9/09        $64.03            5/15/09        $68.96     8%
BP-NYSE          3/9/09       $35.32             5/15/09        $45.49     29%
PBR-NYSE        3/9/09       $26.72             5/15/09       $37.05      39%
ESV-NYSE        3/9/09       $23.64             5/15/09        $30.33     28%
MSFT-NASDAQ 4/23/09     $18.60            5/15/09        $20.36     9%
INTC-NASDAQ 4/29/09     $15.20            5/15/09         $15.26     -
CDE-NYSE        3/4/09        $.67               5/19/09         $1.37      104%

** Adjusted for 5 for 1 reverse split

Regards,
George

13 Responses to “Grandich Model Portfolio Performance Is Tough To Beat”

  1. Peter Grandich says:

    George – This was a nice surprise but you need to know I’m like the Vancouver Canucks, I choke under pressure-lol

    As I noted in my update this past Friday night, I’m on the biggest win streak in my 25-year career. But like Saint Peter, I don’t walk on water so no one should think they will have to kiss my ring-lol

    I want to thank you publicly for providing this “new frontier” way of providing advice and commentary. You know I was brought kicking and screaming into the 21st century technology-wise.

    For those of you coming to the Vancouver Investment Conference this coming weekend, I’m doing a workshop with George on this new technology medium. I urge investors, clients and interested parties to attend.

    Thanks again George and to all my readers. Your support is what makes this so worthwhile.

  2. Roger says:

    We’re all victims of our past experiences.

    I couldn’t bring myself to buy Harry Winston diamonds since I still have worthless shares of Rockwell Diamonds in my portfolio – and the news that manmade REAL diamonds are in the not too distant future.

    Figures that pick would be at the top of the annualized list.

    If it was easy, none of us would be workin’ for a livin’

    Good job, Peter.

    Roger.

  3. Robert C says:

    WOW !! They say ‘The proof is in the pudding’ – the pudding looks great !!!
    Thanks Peter and George for this great blog.
    George, would it be possible for you to put the Market symbols beside the equity names in your ‘Open position’ names, making it easier to read for a novice. Again – many THANKS to both of you and to the many bloggers.

  4. [...] Check out the results of his current model portfolio here. [...]

  5. Jay Gillespie says:

    George, is there a missing entry in your sold chart? NDM/NAK?

    Peter posted that he sold about half of his position to buy a house, and at the time it gave me reason to think as if there really is an offer in the 09 future, why would the sale of what should be the most profitable asset be made then with less than a year to go–unless it’s either really not in the offing or everything else in the model is expected to additionally increase by at least 50%?

    HDM sure seems to run a good house, but they slipped a bit on the diamond mine as Roger notes. Like him, I buried my shares somewhere in the abthroom for future use.

    Jay Gillespie

  6. lynn says:

    Thanks Peter for sharing your portfolio with us its very generous of you.

    Reguards, Lynn

  7. challie says:

    I like the way PG trades, and of course his understanding of the psychology of market trading. I note that the model does not favor much OF the Ur stks. There were some very favorable moves in TGB and UEC,URZ.

  8. Jay I didn’t put a sell on NDM/NAK. It was by far my largest personal position, I’m closing on a house on June 23rd, I haven’t had any debt since 2000 (and don’t want any) and I had to raise over a half of million dollars. I felt I needed to tell people since I spoke so much about NDM for a long time and noted I had owned a ton.

    Maybe because I have 25 years of experience, I’ve learned not to wait a couple more weeks and then be put in a position where I can’t sell that have an enormous problem.

  9. Jay Gillespie says:

    Thank you, Peter. I commented to a WSW member at the time that the sale sure made sense to me since you kept half.

    I did however put a trailing stop on all the shares I purchased in the 2 to 4 range just in case some blow-off happens again that right now is unanticipated. So you’re posting made me think then that there’s no reason to give up any gain again as I did from the 10 on down range when I held all my shares and those in my kids accounts. And even if they end up owning some small portion of a mine down the road, that’s fine.

  10. Michael says:

    That is a great chart! Can you make that chart a permanent part of the Mod Port?

  11. Charlie says:

    Any suggestions on where new money would enter in this portfolio? The last time you posted it gave some guidelines on buy at ## – hold – etc.

  12. @Peter

    Peter, I knew this medium would only serve to accelerate your good work by letting you post faster, while providing investors with an ability to provide instant feedback. The fact that investors can quickly look back at your past posts within 1-2 clicks is super powerful stuff that was never available before.

    @Robert C

    Thanks for the great words. I’m pretty sure I can edit the portfolio to include stock symbols. Look for it on the next update.

    @Jay

    Hi, Jay. I’m just going by what Peter has listed in his model portfolio. I see he has provided an answer for you.

    @Michael

    I’d love to be able to have the portfolio update and post automatically but this one doesn’t work that way. We’re looking to find a solution that can do so.

    Hope to see many of you in Vancouver!

    Regards,
    George

    Regards,
    George

  13. [...] the likes of analysts from Cantor Fitzgerald, Goldman Sachs and BMO Capital Markets.  Given his portfolio performance over the past several months, perhaps those anlaysts should be happy they were mentioned along side [...]

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