I’m almost caught up after just a week away from the office. It’s a tough job but somebody has to do it-lol
I want to say it was an absolute pleasure meeting so many blog followers at the Vancouver show. Your words of encouragement were very special to me. I always felt a sense of responsibility to my readers but after you meet so many personally, you come away with even more a desire not to screw up. Thanks again for all the kind words there and here on the blog.
There’s not much to update as yours truly has curled up into a fetal position-lol. I’m very content holding all metals related positions as I think we’re not even close to the explosive stage for precious metals and feel we’ve seen the lows for base metals.
I explained in Vancouver that after 25 years in this business and losing more money than I ever thought I would make as a youngster, I’ve learned to take profits, especially when they come much faster than expected. That’s why I advised taking profits in oil-related recommendations.
Since I’m basically a speculator/gambler, I’ve learned when you swing for the fences its best to have plenty of swings. Profits allow more swings.
I also feel quite comfortable holding my short treasuries and U.S. Dollar positions for the long term.
I’m extremely bearish on the belief that the U.S. economy can return to any real economic growth for years to come. Yes, a recovery is likely but what good will flat growth be anyway? It’s my belief that a multi-year trading range can develop between the lows around DJIA 6500 and 10,500 on the upside. I think the play is to await some a run to the top of the range before going short. If we simply go back towards the lows again I will once again consider the long side depending on the then current fundamental and technical outlooks.
In regards to the few open buy positions and Grandich Clients, here are my latest views:
Taseko Mines – Please see most recent comments
Continental Minerals – Buy up to $1.20. Stock appears to be consolidating recent gains.
Nevsun Resources – Would be a break out on a close above $1.60
All remaining positions in model portfolio are holds.
ATW Gold – The market seems to be realizing that they’re on the threshold of becoming a significant producer and still have excellent exploration potential.
Apella Resources – Still waiting on new developments.
Bravo Venture Group – Soon to be drilling again and the Homestake project is the homerun swing.
Crosshair Exploration – Has lifted off lows thanks to renewed interest in Uranium.
Donner Metals – The Rodney Dangerfield of juniors has finally received a little respect. Here’s to it continuing.
Farallon Mining – The name change says it all. It’s now a producer.
Hawthorne Gold – It too is set to drill and we wait in anticipation of good news.
Knight Resources – Another kick at the can this summer. Here’s to a big kick!
Northern Dynasty Minerals – Is consolidating recent run and is a buy if it gets below $7 again.
Oromin Explorations – Management continues to drill for gold and not investors. This may hurt now but pay off in the future.
Silvermex Resources – Is under review and I hope to have an update out soon.
Sunridge Gold- Just had an update today.
Timmins Gold – Onward and upward towards production now with financings all in place.
Peter,
Just wondering what your thoughts are on the metal shares if and when the general market declines and moves into a trading range as you have described. Sorry for asking again but I’m that facinated about the issue. I’m torn on whether it would be more like 2000-2002 when the shares moved up in the face of a general market decline or down like in 2008. My gut keeps telling me to buy metal shares on dips and declines no matter what. Gold shares are way above their 200 day moving average and the 50 day has sliced through the 200 day while the 200 day is sloping upward again suggesting to me (what do I know?) very strong market internals. Just curious about your thoughts on this and whether you think gold moves into its own bull market by decoupling from the US dollar at some point.
Glad you’re doing so well and continue to keep perspective. Keep it up no matter what happens in these markets.
I think we’re not even close to the explosive stage for precious metals and feel we’ve seen the lows for base metals
please keep continue to keep us informed ….”papa needs a new car”
Natural gas – information on injections/builds:
U.S. Energy Information Administration data released this week indicated an injection of 106 Bcf, slightly below expectations for a build of 110 Bcf. However, this week’’s injection is well above the 5-year average of 91 Bcf and last year’’s build of 84 Bcf for this time of year. Storage levels are now at 2,443 Bcf, 22% above the 5-year average of 2,005 Bcf and 30% above last year’’s level of 1,875 Bcf. Weather forecasts for the United States over the next six to 10 days are calling for below-normal temperatures in the Consuming West, partially offset by warmer weather forecast for the Producing region.
Missing GOLD from Canada – Peter is this your gold that is missing!!! If not your’s, who’s is it? I know its not mine!
http://www.thestar.com/article/647671
Peter don’t you follow Nevada Copper? It certainly has been on a slow and steady pace of late as has Western Copper also. Looks like some blue sky potential also. Any thoughts on copper?
Peter SGC seemed to have good news yet the stock dropped, can you please explain. Thank You So Much!!!
Coach23,
Regarding hedges – a lot depends on your trading style. Right now, I am fully invested in a large number of cheap stocks, because that is what I like to do, and it works as long as the market is neutral or positive. Currently not hedged.
I use a short-term high/low indicator to tell me when the market internals go negative. It gave a sell signal on May 14, but returned to a buy the next day. When it goes negative, I buy nothing, and start selling aggressively. If it stays negative and the liquidity starts to dry up (making it difficult to sell), I will buy an inverse ETF as a hedge. I prefer cash over a hedged portfolio, but it’s not always doable.
Klaus,
I see. Thanks for your example.
have not used hedges much but instead used a cash portfolio an sat on the sidelines when unsure or indicators going against me. Safety and money preservation comes to mind when i hear the word hedges. but to me this is not the case a lot of times.