For many of us in the Northeast, it doesn’t seem possible to be in the summer doldrums with significantly below average temperatures recently. Never-the-less, the “seasonally” take it easy attitude is upon us as investors rather enjoy the outdoors then deal with the realities of America’s continuing slide to social, political and economic upheaval. So for the very near term – PARTY-ON DUDE!
U.S. Stock Market – Despite an extremely bearish long term outlook, I’ve not recommended any new short positions since two days after the all-time high in the stock market back in October 2007. This has caused some people to question why not?
The main reason is I feel the stock market is going to go into a multi-year trading range between DJIA 6500 and potentially as high as 10,500 (but average around 8500 or below). I don’t expect sharp rises and falls within this perceived trading range and therefore outright puts or calls or long or short ETFs aren’t appealing to me.
A case in point is about two weeks ago. Several readers wrote in to ask why I wasn’t shorting the stock market given I felt the rally towards DJIA 9000 had come to an end? The market was selling off and they thought we were missing a selling opportunity. Within days those inquiries disappeared as we’ve had yet another strong counter-trend rally. I believe this type of whipsawing is going to be here for quite awhile and to try and catch these short but strong moves up and down can only end up being a lost cause.
I do want to suggest as I did when oil hit $70, that when the market gets to the top of my range, implementing bearish call spreads is a worthy consideration for high-risk speculators/gamblers. We’re getting close to that opportunity in the stock market.
Ten and Thirty Year Treasuries – For those who had yet to get short, I do believe we just witnessed a “gift from God’ opportunity the last couple of weeks. For those who continue to think that 1-2% CDs and 3%-4% long term bonds are here to stay for years to come, I’ve a bridge that connects Manhattan and Brooklyn I can sell to you – CHEAP! America is drowning in a sea of debt that continues to rise dramatically. It won’t matter that the economy is weak and therefore bonds are a buy. Interest rates are going to rise sharply due to our enormous borrowing needs and a currency that’s giving “Don’t squeeze the Charmin” a run for its money!
U.S. Dollar – Dead man walking. Watch 78.25 on the U.S. Dollar Index. A close below that level is very bearish. But then again, isn’t everything about poor old Uncle Sam bearish?
Oil – While we did get below $60, the market was deeply oversold and likely now to consolidate above $60 for the near future. The low to mid 50s is still my downsize target for now.
Natural Gas – I’m constantly asked why haven’t I recommended natural gas especially back when I recommended oil in the low 30s? The world is awash in natural gas at the moment. The fundamentals have just not come together for me to do so. Natural gas gets a nice pop every so often as people keep hoping it has to go up sooner or later. I remain neutral.
Precious Metals – Once again gold has hit a wall at the $940 area. But I’ve a feeling this time it’s not going to reverse sharply. I think we’re finally on the threshold of breaking out and a four digit gold price before years-end is more than likely.
I spend extremely little time discussing other forecasters but I can’t help myself in bringing up two who get a lot of press (jealousy is not my reason) but are just simply wrong over and over again. One party writes for a very large bullion dealer and website. The other writes a daily commodities-laden newsletter, spends an awful lot of time in the media, has had his head handed to him again and again when he shorts gold, yet the media calls him a gold authority. Sorry, but the only authority he seems to be is on when not to sell gold. Both these gentlemen are really anti-gold, which in the case of the bullion dealer makes you wonder why they have such an ardent bear as their spokesperson.
Base Metals – I’m truly taken back by copper’s strength. I felt it could trade up to the top of my range of $2.75 but felt that wouldn’t occur until 2010. I won’t look a gift horse in the mouth since my personal portfolio is loaded to the gills with big copper/gold plays.
Geopolitical – I’ve a sneaky suspicion we could see my anticipated Iran/Israel conflict come to the forefront sooner than later. Why? Israel is making a series of military and political moves that I believe is the start of a campaign by them. Iran hardliners meanwhile have found themselves in an internal struggle no one foresaw. You could think that weakens my scenario but I believe it actually strengthens it. A military fight with Israel right now would whip the hardliners up, would be political suicide for Arab countries not to support (although many like Egypt and Saudi Arabia want to see Iran crushed) and would give the Iranian government cover to invoke a major harder crackdown. Unfortunately, stay tuned.
Hear me on radio this weekend
- www.kereport.com Live show Saturday at 3:30PM DST
PG, I am not aware that the following is true or not, I read it on the internet news. The Israelis used the suez canal to transport a submarine on its way to the Red Sea . I would think such news would recieve more attention, but I read no follow up stories. interesting !
Challie It’s true. And the fact that neither Eygpt or the saudie’s said anything was their way of saying “Nuke Iran”.
Peter your wit is only matched by your market wisdom and a gift to put things plain and simple. No wonder you haven’t been on Wall Street in years-LOL.
Peter is too kind and doesn’t want to say it.
The anti-gold’ers are Jon Nadler of Kitco.com (who I have written about several times myself) and Dennis Gartman (I only wish I had the guts to trade opposite him when it comes to gold).
At least Nadler’s commentary is free, Gartman gets somewhere around $500/month for his newsletter (or is it higher now?)
Good job, Peter.
Regards,
Roger.
You were too kind in your description of the two biggest rats in the gold forecasting business. I think we all know who you were referring too. I couldn’t agree with you more.
Nadler has been wrong for as long as he’s been on Kitco. The nerve of this jerk to criticize others knowing how poorly his own record is. He’s the Andy Smith of the 21st century. He loves to attack GATA who has been right on the price of gold.
Gartman is actually more of a prick. Not only does he think his poo poo doesn’t stink, but he lives to be stroked and to knock others. Ask Gartman to provide an actual track record. I did at a Money Show and he just ignored me.
Keep up the great work Peter!
I stopped reading Nadler months ago.
But I read everything by P.Grandich.
Keep up the good work, sir.
Yup, these two are quite the pair.At times I feel like knocking their heads together. The Kitco dude obvioulsly has a hidden agenda in talking down the gold price…a very unusual thing to do when you’re a bullion dealer. Why would anyone buy gold from Kitco when they’re telling you that the gold price will be dropping. I sure as heck wouldn’t want to be buying an investment that’s expected to drop in value.
Could it be that kitco doesn’t have enough gold to cover their client accounts and are hoping to cover (buy) at much lower prices?
As for the other clown, today he officially declared the end of this recession because the weekly jobless claims have spiked lower!!! And that’s the sign he’s been looking for to declare that the recession is over and the worst will soon be behind us.
Let’s see if he’s better at predicting this as he is predicting the direction of the gold price.
Peter, What time zone is DST?
http://www.webexhibits.org/daylightsaving/nodes.html
It’s DST all over North America in the winter except for Arizona and Hawaii. Mind you Hawaii is not part of North America. So how does DST relate to say EST or PST?
As per my understanding, DST (Daylight Saving Time) doesn’t tell us whether we are in Eastern or Western part of US (or Canada). It just tells us that the place observes DST i.e there is time change twice a year in order to save the daylight. So both EST and PST people can say they observe DST.
(Please note that in a lot of countries in Asia, there is no such thing as time change, it stays same all the year and in all regions of the country e.g in India).
But we know that Peter is in EST. It can also be called EDT (D for indicating that it observes DST). Similarly PST can be called as PDT.
Hope it clarifies.
I received this as an email – is Gerald Celente someone worth listening to? Thanks
Expert Predicts Economic Armageddon by 2012
Jim Bramlett
Jul 18, 2009
(The below corresponds to the Bible-based predictions for 2009-2012.)
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See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2qDW34Fr64
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q2qDW34Fr64
Also see http://www.trendsresearch.com/ or http://www.collapseof09.com
Expert trends forecaster Gerald Celente predicts a collapse in 2009 and economic Armageddon by 2012. Allegedly, he has been correct on all his past economic predictions. See links above.
If Nostradamus were alive today, he’d have a hard time keeping up with Gerald Celente. New York Post
When CNN wants to know about the Top Trends, we ask Gerald Celente. CNN Headline News
A network of 25 experts whose range of specialties would rival many university faculties. The Economist
Gerald Celente has a knack for getting the zeitgeist right. USA Today
There’s not a better trend forecaster than Gerald Celente. The man knows what he’s talking about. CNBC
Those who take their predictions seriously … consider the Trends Research Institute. The Wall Street Journal
“A guy that obviously knows his trends.” Bill O’Reilly
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amr, Thanks for the insight. I was primarily refer to Peter’s live Korelin radio show that he is today “Saturday at 3:30PM DST”. From his previous posts when Peter was in Vancouver in early June I am pretty sure he means PST when he says DST, but not positive. It is a bit confusing if you are trying to catch something live.
Cheers,
Todd
Uh Todd. Maybe if you actually went to the link Peter provided you could actually see what time the interview takes place.
Peter, You posted the following:
Geopolitical – I’ve a sneaky suspicion we could see my anticipated Iran/Israel conflict come to the forefront sooner than later.
I recall this is one reason you bought into oil earlier, so why would this not make you want to own oil and oil stocks again??? And believe them to fall now? Thanks in advance!
Peter, what do you think about the long time relation between the oil and nat gas price being approx 10 while it presently is 17. Is this an important relation? If yes will oil correct downwards or nat gas go up?
Pat D,
it is not in Israels interest to “nuke” Iran.
Morally: preemptive use of nuclear force would make it an outcast.
Strategically: Iran could have bought nuclear and/or chemical warheads and delivery systems already. They have the money and there are suppliers from North Korea, to Pakistan to former Soviet Union states. Risk of nuclear retaliaton were far too high for the small, highly populated country Israel.
From a tactical point of view: the imminent danger from the probably tens of thousands conventional rockets amassed in Lebanon and Gaza is much more of a real threat than anything else. In the next escalation they might reach Tel Aviv. Israel will need its limtied capacities to deal with that very dangerous and extremly difficult to handle threat.
Peter,
What is your comments on crookedness of CNBC?
Who can trust those medias any more? I am very suspicious….
Stocks ignited in the early afternoon when CNBC and other fin media outlets reported that renowned doomster, Prof. Roubini, said the worst of the financial and economic crisis is behind us. After the close Roubini denied that he had changed his forecast. This led astute operators to wonder if someone planted the erroneous story as part of a well-orchestrated option expiration squeeze.
If you love this country – LISTEN TO THIS!!!!!!!!
If you are willing to march, even on Washington, D.C. LISTEN TO THIS!!!!!!!
Video by Thomas Payne – must see.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeYscnFpEyA