I’ve decided to make DTO-NYSE $78 a formal buy recommendation for my model portfolio. Buy it up until the close with a $79 limit
More on this and gold’s great rally in this weekend’s update.
Agoracom Blog
New Buy Recommendation
Posted by
at 2:27 PM on Friday, July 31st, 2009
I’m in for more. Thanks Peter. Do you think the US dollar will strengthen short term. I figure this is why you are so strong on oil prices falling back into the $50’s. Thanks in advance for confirmation of your thoughts on the US dollar short term.
Ryan
Actually US dollar has broken down today.
May be Peter’s thinking is that people will sell equities, oil and pile into gold/silver. Oil going down and gold going up are contradictory based upon what has been happening so far but may be they are diverging starting today.
Henry Groppe said yesterday that Oil will go above $90 before the end of this year. He has NEVER been wrong since 1955.
Looks to me like shorting Oil is like playing with fire.
Hocus Pocus, like I said before why don’t you go long oil today if you want to put your money where your mouth is? other wise please stop having free fun.
“He has NEVER been wrong since 1955″
54 years and NEVER wrong…WOW…how the heck is he not a regular on the Forbes 400 list???
2 words & two words only — – PEAK OIL
when the general markets sell off a bit which could be pretty soon with dow at 9200. oil will probably sell off too, and besides its a trade not a long term investment. oil will probably be 90 bucks at years end but end of year is a long ways away.
Steve,
Yes, I believe in the Peak Oil Theory and I also believe that Peter believes in the Peak Oil Theory. That doesn’t meant that oil will go to $200 tomorrow. It is a speculative play and I believe short term oil has got ahead of itself. I like that Peter is thinking the same way, as that confirms my own thoughts. I don’t like being on this side, but I am willing to take the risk, as I think oil can do a quick reversal for quick money in the next week or so. If it happens to go the other way, well then I sell and lose money. That is what the stock market is all about. If everybody thought the same, at every price, the markets would not exist. Good luck.
Ryan
I agree completely, Ryan.
“If everyone is thinking alike, then somebody isn’t thinking.”
– George S. Patton
I am considering DTO or HOD, but I’m going to wait until next week. This does look like an interesting setup, but I prefer to wait for either a downtrend break or a MACD buy on the hourly chart – preferably both. It may gap up, but I’d rather pay a little extra next week than hold this over the weekend. But that’s just me – I have been badly bruised by commodities in the past. When bruises heal, they tend to turn yellow – lol.
TBT is going down <50. Good time to buy?
This trading day better end soon, as I keep moving things around to free up more cash to buy HOD (2x oil shorting ETF on the TSX). It is a long weekend for us Canadians, this weekend. I am one hoping for oil being down to $62 or so by Tuesday (it might take a little longer than that). Have a good weekend.
Ryan
Just made a days wages on NDM, not quite as good as the nat gas plays
I’ve been reading about but keeps a guy in the play.
Klaus,
I just saw your post. I agree with how you are thinking. You might lose out on some profits, but at least you will feel more comfortable once it starts to break down. I might have got a little ahead of myself, especially with not being able to get back in now till Tuesday, but what’s done is done. I think it will break down eventually so what does it matter, really. I don’t have anything in there that I am not willing to lose 20% of. I don’t see it moving that fast that I can’t get it out before then. I guess the one thing that could happen is some crazy geopolitical issue over the next three days that sends oil skyrocketing. This is my one fear. Oh well, life’s a gamble. Have a good long weekend. We will pick up where we left off next Tuesday.
Ryan
If US$ is going down, all commonities should go up, including oil.
Why shorting oil if shorting US$, oil overbought? maybe…
Other than overbought, what else can make oil price going down?
I can list number of reasons making oil price going up…
i.e Wars, oil pile line blowup, hurricans, Chinese news (buying car like free),.. more than 5$ moving up in two days is not a good reason to short it…
hello..if one buy’s this DTO, are you actually shorting it by buying it?.. is this a stock?i am new and a bit confused at this..thanks for the help
Yes, I am also wondering why Peter is so sure about a short-term trend change in oil. At least, this is against the general mood of the market. Could today’s the pivot point? How so? Why put DTO in the model portfolio?
Eric Peter’s superb record has been achieved because he doesn’t follow the crowd. I remember everyone asking how could he possibly like oil late last year at $35? Just this week, people were telling us how gold was going to fall hard yet Peter said buy it. Look at gold today?
That’s why he gets the big bucks lol
Henry Groppe certainly has a lot of audiences…
Henry Groppe said oil price would go to $85 in the summer when it was $30~ in March, 09.
Billy: DTO is an ETF that shorts crude. So the recommendation is to buy the ETF.
Could be a nice double bottom today on the 5 min chart at the 78 level (77.59). There was huge volume on the initial test with what appears to be a spike down at 77.59. There was no breach of that initial level on the second test and it came on less volume. Closed at 78.80 It has bounced nicely since. Looks like a nice set up. After hours: 78.91.
Su,
I see what you are saying and agree. This is why I have now asked Peter twice, if he thinks that the US dollar will strengthen short term. I follow Peter’s blog daily and try to read into what he doesn’t always come out and say. I think he must see a short term break for the US dollar from this current free fall. Peter has said that he will update on the weekend and I hope he gives us his opinion on the US dollar short term. He has also said that he will update on “gold’s great rally”. I can’t wait for what he see’s for gold short term. Now that I write this out, it makes me really wonder. If he is eluding to gold breaking out to the upside short term, and oil trending down short term. I don’t know, I guess we will have to wait and see what he has to say. He may see a short term breather for the US dollar and the equity markets as they have both been over done (although in opposite directions)in a short period. This would send oil prices down from these inflated prices, when you look at the fundamentals. I would have to say if the US dollar strengthened short term that gold would have to drop with the US dollar strength short term, but continue on it’s way to breaking the $1000 mark when the US dollar continued it’s march of death combined with the peak of gold’s seasonality rapidly approaching. Also you have to add the Chinese stockpiling gold. Just some ideas. I need to get called back to work. LOL! Have a good weekend.
Ryan
Ryan, Mark,
I summoned the courage to take a starter (1/4) position in DTO at the close. My reason was exactly what you said, plus the following: I didn’t like the way the general market closed (last hour down). That, plus the overbought conditions, and the end of window-dressing leads me to think we may have a gap down in the general market Monday. Oil has been positively correlated of late, so DTO may gap up. I would have preferred HOD (better liquidity), but if I’m wrong, I didn’t want to be stuck with something like this in a closed market.
mark..thank you..one last dumb question..by buying DOT, would one want the stock to go up to be profitable then although it is actually shorting it?..thanks again
We’re like junkies. We (and this includes me) all need to take a deep breath, listen and then judge for ourselves. If it works out, it works out. If not, we learn and move on. Some of this stuff, maybe most of this stuff, is counterintuitive. What we think makes sense isn’t always what unfolds. It may be just the opposite. It’s only sometime later it makes sense.
What a load of crock. If there was so much Oil floating about, then why are tanker rates so low ?
Billy: I think you were referring to DTO (although you typed DOT). I’ll keep it simple. Yes. You want the ETF to go up in price if you bought it as PG recommended. (it trades like a stock but it’s technically not. Think of it as a mutual fund except you can buy and sell it immediately with no waiting period unlike a fund). Good?
Mark,
You’re right, junkies, all of us. But isn’t it nice to have an Obama-free page for a change? At least so far…….
mark..i understand it now and i thank you very much for taking the time to help me out here..have a great weekend..:-)
Anytime, Billy. There’s plenty here who are willing to do the same.
Klaus: You had to say something, didn’t ya?
Got it!
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124846260497979727.html
Thanks Peter
NAKTOTENBUCKS- I have followed your posts on NAK, and curious how you have been reading the charts. I have various positions between 4.46 to 7.33, and learning how to follow charts, market action, and mainly Peter’s spot on forecasts. But, because of the latter, I have not traded NAK….just held, waiting for that spike, takeover, whatever. I read the charts yesterday and saw a jump happening today based on where the price was relative to averages and Bolinger bands….it was nice to actually see it move that way. I do notice that you seem to trade NAK….what are the fundamentals / news telling you where it is going. Copper seems the strongest of the metals.
Hey Pete,
Your recco yesterday as a ‘fast trade’ was a limit at $83. Now your limit is $79. For those who chose the ‘fast trade’ you should benchmark this trade at $83, not $78.
Peter
Thank you for all your efforts. I have profited from the recommendations you have made that I followed and missed the ride on several that I ignored. Your sense of humor is always welcome, even when my picks are sinking like a politician’s poll numbers.
Ed OShea
Packers Fan
Billy: One more thing. I just noticed something…ya know, do me a favor? Could you capitalize the “M” in “Mark”? It’s just a thing…I worked so hard to have the “M” in my first name capitalized so I’d appreciate it, yes thank you.
Peter,
I was just reading an article on the treasury bill auction this week from Bloomberg and it looks like the interest rates on the notes increased a little. What’s the deal with TBT and PST going down this week?
Thanks for all you do.
Joe
Peak Oil is reality, and it is not looming somewhere ahead of us, but propelling us from behind. Futures Options out one, two, and three years are said to be pricing a barrel in the $70 — $90 range. As the Age of Hydrocarbons wanes, prices will continue to climb far faster than demand recedes. We are ill-prepared for the economic and social challenges we face.
Do any of you use or know anything about FAP TURBO The Real Money Forex Robot which is an automatic robot trading system? Thanks for any information or advice regarding automatic robot trading systems!
Susie
Exclusive
Warning: Oil supplies are running out fast
Catastrophic shortfalls threaten economic recovery, says world’s top energy economist
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
Monday, 3 August 2009
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/warning-oil-supplies-are-running-out-fast-1766585.html