Oil broke below support yesterday of $64.40 if it can’t rally back above today $59 is the next downside target.
Agoracom Blog
Oil In The $50s
Posted by
at 8:08 AM on Thursday, July 30th, 2009
Dear Peter, I was reading the article of James Cordier, Michael Gross, OptionSellers.com. He has to say that gold and silver prices will not move up this year as well and all the gold and silver bug will disappoint. He is advising to sell options. whats your take on this!!!
I agree with Anil on gold and silver, with regard to crude I watched a video of a T. analyst from a large firm, who showed why crude will be down to the 20 to 40 range by the end of 2010 and I agree with that also. To explain why all these things will happen, is to consider and delve into the nature of paradox. Like the language of technical analysis of charts is not available to most, the language of a paradox is unavailable to almost all !
David Morgan believes Gold most likely will not move past $1,000 this year, although he did not rule it out it could happen, but not likely
I can see some short term manipulation affecting all of the commodities … but the US$ must go down … which means prices must go up … for oil to get to 20 … we must have massive deflation … the end to speculation … in fact the end to our economic system in its entirety … anarchy would rule … even I am not that pessimistic.
Buy and hold is back in vogue for me based upon long term fundamentals … gold silver and oil and their producers will be winners. YOU need staying power which means you can’t be investing on margin …
Investing on margin … those credit averse people who never bought what they couldn’t pay for would be rolling in their graves thinking of how much gambling people are doing today … may as well be borrowing to go to the casino … if you do … just pick red or black once on the whole lot and leave … it is your best chance.
My friend’s father bought his only when he could pay cash … “those were the days” … Mr. we could use a man like Herbert Hoover again … didn’t need no welfare state … everybody pulled his weight ….
indeed those were the days.
the prophet
Aden’s take on gold:
Gold and silver are under pressure with the jump in the dollar but unlike the others, they are not overbought and the C rise is still underway. August is another seasonally slow month for gold so if we have more sluggishness it could be this month. Gold has support at $920. We recommend keeping your positions and are set for the next wave up. New recommendation is KGC, one of the best performing gold shares.
Klaus,
I moved us up here into the oil thread as it is more fitting. Another right guess on the Nat. Gas lottery and we are heading higher. I am glad we were able to be on the right side together this time and both making money. The build was right in line at 71 bcf. No crazy beat, but not a build higher than expected. I see the price only moved up a bit from the number and then pulled back a bit, then gained speed again. It seems to do this and I am holding till the end of the day as I have seen it build progressively all day before and think it will do it again today. Just my guess, you just never really know. Good job hitting it right this week and we will re-evaluate for next week. I will let you know if and when I take profits. If we get 15% gains today I will probably take that. I will be watching and evaluating.
Ryan
Ryan,
Good call on nat gas today. I’m sure it would have been better if I wasn’t there with you. Still clinging to HNU by my fingernails – I almost pulled the trigger at 11, but the hourly MACD went to a buy. I will definitely sell half or all of it before the close – just because of all the fake outs I’ve experienced with this stuff. I may pull you down yet…..lol
Klaus,
The other day you mentioned trading Viterra and I was wondering if you think its present price is a good entry. I also wonder if it might be negatively effected by the poor crop conditions we have in Alberta. I already own Agrium and its been doing well as of late.
I’d appreciate your opinion, Thanks
Ryan P and Klaus,
Where do you read about inventory projected levels for week(natural gas bcf)?
Team Ryan and Klaus, thanks for your knowledge on Natural Gas.
I have owned UNG in the past which is unleveraged. I have only a us account.
Coach23
Klaus,
Not bad, they ran the price up all day, a thing of beauty. I sold half my position of HNU at $4.70 just now and will hold my other half. I am willing to take the chance with half staying in as I feel the HNU will head over $5.00 again before next Thursday. If it heads south I will have some profits to reload on the cheap. I am glad you hung on and reaped another 4% or so.
Coach,
I am currently laid off and just surf a lot gathering information. I don’t have a site specific as of yet. I would also like one. I will paste a site that may be what we are both looking for, but as of yet I haven’t checked if it always has the updated numbers or if it just runs stories once and awhile. Stockhouse.com is a good source of info. on any stock. The guys and gals on there are constantly pasting and linking current information. Klaus and I are both playing HNU a 2x leveraged Nat. Gas ETF on the Canadian side TSX. Good luck.
Ryan
http://www.platts.com/Natural%20Gas/News/8753270.xml?src=rssheadlines0
Pam
As far as crop conditions and fundamentals in general, I’m like Sargent Shultz – I know nothing, I know nothing. Technically, VT is a range trader near the bottom of its range, so it’s not a bad bet right now. Only thing is, it’s a little dull. In a strong market, I’d rather own a higher beta stock. I really like AGU, I wanted to buy some, but it ran away from me. A lot of things did – the speed and power of the recent upswing caught me a little by surprise.
Ryan
I did what you did – sold half at 4.69. Thanks for the heads up yesterday & today.
Coach
I wish I could figure out nat gas (and gold). On nat gas, Ryan speaks & Klaus listens.
Klaus,
Thanks so much for your reply.
Ryan,
Will post what i find concerning Natural Gas weekly inventories. Good Job on the past three Thursday’s. This is a good example of how participating in the blog is worth peoples time. I know a friend who only reads Grandich’s articles but does not read or participate in the blogs after them. You and Klaus are starting a good thing through wide range of business idea’s passed back and forth. reminds me of the book i read
We key economics. forgive misspelling.
That’s happening here.
Klaus,
If we work together on this blog maybe we can figure natural gas, gold,.. out together.
Coach23
Peter, I don’t agree with your thesis that oil will go down significantly as some OPEC countries have made substantial production cuts. In addition, the annual depletion rate for oil is about 8% per year, and some countries, like Mexico for example, are currently facing declining rates of production.
The following Bloomberg article discusses Mexico’s declining production at its giant Cantarell field. Many other countries are also facing similar problems.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20602099&sid=aje1wS.0zP_0#
The report you provided does not gives us any hard data to back up its claim…let’s stick to the facts…
Hey Sam can I get some of whatever you’re smoking? All Peter did is mention a trade. If we’re going to stick with facts lets start with you’re obviously an idiot.
Edward is there any chance your middle name is Dick?
Gary Why because you love dick?
PG, Time to pull the plug on certain bloggers? Especially when intelligence is substituted by profound idiocy. Sometimes a frontal lobotomy helps.
Challie I don’t think Peter should pull the plug on you. You are the best opposite indicator I ever met. I loaded up on gold when you said it was going to tank and Peter said to buy it. Any more great ideas-HaHa!
it’s amazing how quickly you identified with idiocy and frontal lobotomy, but I guess you would rather have a bottle in front of you, hic !