Please Note - I will be interviewed live on Korelin Radio tomorrow at 3:30PM DST. I also will be live on Blog talk radio Tuesday at 10AM DST.
If memory serves me, today mark’s the beginning of the return to happier times. Wasn’t the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on Wall Street wildly predicting a recovery starting in the second half of 09? Didn’t CNBC-TV tell us these (cup is always half-full) soothsayers saw green shoots turning into beautiful roses? So why not just kick back, fire up the old barbecue (which only has six payments left) invite the neighbors over (just remove the mortgage delinquent notices from your table), even those who have had to move to losing their jobs, homes, etc., and turn on the TV and watch your President tell you how wonderful things are going to be if you all just simply follow him (I understand he has a new teleprompter for the second half).
U.S. Stock Market – Poor “happy” people. Their July 4th holiday weekend was turned upside down by of all things – reality. How dare something called “unemployment” ruin fantasies of green shoots for everyone. The audacity of people actually realizing a teleprompter can only take you so far. Didn’t they get the memo?
I must admit, I’m extremely frustrated that the investing public gets absolutely annihilated by so-called professional advisors whose very job was to protect from the disaster that has now crippled them, only to continue buying into their pied-piper analogies that have no real legitimacy of chance. Would the public go back for another operation by a doctor who crippled them the first time? Would they still use an attorney who was supposed to protect them but instead cost them their freedom? Of course not so why then do they stay with advisors who failed them at the most critical time?
One of the hardest things for humans to do is to change. When you combine that with another terrible fault – unable to admit fault, you can begin to understand why so many investors still are pretty much situated they way they were before the disaster of the century unfolded (at least those who still have something left to pray for a miracle over).
As it becomes more evident that there was no new bull market born but rather just another bull fantasy spun to benefit the spinners, the secular bear market will do what it always does, inflict more and more pain until enough people truly throw in the towel (if they have even a towel left at that point).
I’m delighted to have provided ample profit opportunities and to be on the sidelines cashed up and stress-free. Don’t let all that money cause an itch for action. The world would kill to be in our place and may end up having to if things get as bad as some say.
Oil – Now that we got our close below $68, my target of oil back in the 50s has moved up several notches. Don’t expect a rapid decline but I do think those who implemented bearish call spreads on oil and oil equities are now sitting pretty.
U.S. Dollar – Poor old Uncle Sam. It wasn’t that many years ago that the Fourth of July would make him beat his chest, raise his head high and march down main street USA with pride. The day would be topped off with fireworks only many towns can’t afford them and have canceled fireworks shows. The one country with “real” money continues to call for putting old Uncle Sam out to pasture. Me? I think of only one song now when contemplating the dollar’s future.
Gold – Funny how the $940 area is aggressively sold every time it’s hit. I continue to believe one refrains from any new gold purchases until we can stay above $940 for at least a few days. Once we do, $1,000+ becomes a question of when, not if.
Bonds – I would be very concern about holding most types of bonds going forward. Besides an eventual spike up in interest rates regardless of the status of the economy, the sad state of affairs with most States is not being priced into the markets yet. I strongly suggest those of you dependent on bonds for income give serious thought to a portfolio review ASAP.
Mainstream media appears to be heading the call of finding new ways to make ends meet. And never to be out done, good old Congress continues to do its part of spending our way back to prosperity.
I don’t really know what “bearish call spreads” are but can’t one just short USO with stop loss at certain level? Is it any different from “bearish call spreads”?
For example I can short oil if it bounces close to $68 with a stop loss around $70.
Peter, thanks for all your hard work. We really appreciate it.
Also many of the bloggers are so interesting and informative – thank you all!!!!
I bought Timmins Gold on June 1, 2009 @ 0.56$ a share on a very credible breakout. It went up to 0.78$ on three different days, then headed down. Today it has broken a two week support of approximately 0.56$. Has the airplane steered off the runway? (lol – in reference to posting by Peter Grandich at 1:39 PM on Monday, June 1st, 2009) Being new in this business, I seek your opinion or that of any experienced investors on this blog – is Timmins Gold a HOLD, SELL, or BUY, and why? I humbly thank you…R.C.
China consistently is buying real assets…and I agree with Peter that gold has resistance at $940 but now is a great time to get into some mining companies way undervalued.
Check out my post China Buying Real Assets
DON’T TELL ME THAT YOU’RE CELEBRATING ‘LIBERTY’ and ‘FREEDOM’ ON JULY 4TH !!
YOU SHOULD BE MOURNING FOR THE ENSLAVEMENT OF OUR FELLOW AMERICANS AND DESCENDENTS. YOU WANT TO CELEBRATE? …..WHERE IS THE OUTRAGE FELLOW AMERICANS? WHAT HAVE YOU DONE FOR FREEDOM IN YOUR LIFETIME ? WILL YOU EVER PROTEST?
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Alive and growing in every state… Especially California …You Wonder Why We’re Broke?!
Joe Legal vs. Joe Illegal
Here is an example of why hiring illegal aliens is not economically productive for the State of California…
You have 2 families…”Joe Legal” and “Jose Illegal”. Both families have 2 parents, 2 children and live in California.
“Joe Legal” works in construction, has a Social Security Number, and makes $25.00 per hour with payroll taxes deducted….”Jose Illegal” also works in construction, has “NO” Social Security Number, and gets paid $15.00 cash “under the table”.
Joe Legal…$25.00 per hour x 40 hours $1000.00 per week, $52,000 per year. Now take 30% away for state federal tax. Joe Legal now has $31,231.00.
Jose Illegal….$15.00 per hour x 40 hours $600.00 per week, $31,200.00
per year. Jose Illegal pays no taxes… Jose Illegal now has $31,200.00
Joe Legal pays Medical and Dental Insurance with limited coverage
$1000.00 per month, $12,000.00 per year. Joe Legal now has $19,231.00
Jose Illegal has full Medical and Dental coverage through the state and local clinics at a cost of $0.00 per year. Jose Illegal still has $31,200.00
Joe Legal makes too much money is not eligible for Food Stamps or welfare
Joe Legal pays for food $1,000.00 per month, $12,000.00 per year. Joe Legal now has $ 7,231.00
Jose Illegal has no documented income and is eligible for Food Stamps and Welfare.Jose Illegal still has $31,200.00
Joe Legal pays rent of $1,000.00 per month, $12,000.00 per year. Joe Legal is now in the hole minus (-) $4,769.00
Jose Illegal receives a $500 per month Federal rent subsidy. Jose Illegal pays rent
$500.00 per month, $6,000.00 per year. Jose Illegal still has $25,200.00
Joe Legal now works overtime on Saturdays or gets a part time job after work.
Jose Illegal has nights and weekends off to enjoy with his family.
Joe Legal’s and Jose Illegal’s children both attend the same school. Joe Legal pays for his children’s lunches while Jose Illegal’s children get a government sponsored lunch.
Jose Illegal’s children have an after school ESL program. Joe Legal’s children go home.
Joe Legal and Jose Illegal both enjoy the same Police and Fire Services, but Joe paid for them and Jose did not pay.
Don’t vote/support any politician that supports illegal aliens…
It’s time to take a stand for America and Americans!
Sounds like Joe Legal better get a cheaper place to rent or he is
going to go real broke.
Sorry but this sounds like you heard this from a friends friend who
told your friend.
where did you get this information?
That’s what I think, American Woman, you got this from a friend of a friend who probably lives in California, but there’s certainly nothing wrong with the formula of who pays and who gets.
Is Joe Legal enslaved by the State? It sure seems that way to me.
Timmins and HTD
Peter
I own Timmins as well and a about even now. I am thinking of adding if it gets any lower. Thoughts anyone?
Also, with the recent run up in treasuries I am thinking of adding to HTD here. Thoughts on that as well please.
Happy Sunday