This idea is strictly for high risk speculators who are looking for a trade that may end up being held for as little as a few days to a few weeks. This is not a model portfolio recommendation. I will follow-up when I would sell this trade idea.
I would use today’s bounce back in oil as a shorting opportunity with my target of oil in the 50s a goal. Buy DTO-NYSE at $83 up until the close with a $83.50 limit.
Good call Peter. I began shorting as price of oil breached $67 this aft. Doesn’t appear much upside here but could see a nice downdraft in the coming days. Glad to hear you’re thinking the same way…
Peter,
Thanks, I agree and I tossed some in HOD up here in Canada. I would think that you must see the US dollar getting a little bit of a breather here, to be calling this out. Can you confirm, as this will have a short term impact on a lot of the commodities (ie. gold and copper). Poor old Uncle Sam should get a breather once and awhile on his march to his death. Thanks.
Ryan
owch! I am such a loser. I just exit my position HIE earlier today. My itchy fingers. Either too early or too late. Well, just have to wait for next entry point….
According to this guy, no one is manipulating the market. It’s all in our head.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/292652/Goldman-Sachs-Is-Not-Ripping-You-Off?tickers=%5EDJI,gs,ndaq,nyx,%5Egspc,ms,jpm
Peter,
Great call a few weeks back on shorting oil above 68. I have been trading in and out since then. Crazy volatility…. 6% moves in both directions in 2 days. Keep up the great work. This blog has been more helpful to me than you can imagine. Thanks again. God Bless.
If I tried that play Israel would bomb Iran, and a hurricane would take out all the rigs in the Gulf of Mexico. I wish you guys luck.
Brent,
Very funny, lol. Small positions are critical…. Work to learn, not to earn. You would be amazed at how quickly you learn, when you lose even a little bit of money. Lets hope what you posted doesn’t happen, at least in the short term.
I feel much safer to long oil after a significant pullback if there is one.
I could agree Eric more..
Technically, oil is looking very strong, Buy the pullback.
I meant “I could not agree Eric more”…
Last year, when oil over shot to $150, there were no reasons other than hypes and speculations…
Watch Phil Flynn on 321energy.com to see how many times he got burnt..
NONESENSE.
YOU WILL NOT SEE $50 OIL THIS YEAR
Drake cake Grandich said it would hit the 50s not $50 Thanks for your call. Now I know Grandich is right.
Klaus,
Looks like we should have taken all of our profits and ran yesterday. LOL! Can’t win them all. I will be taking the other half of my position out at 9:30 AM before I lose all my gains from yesterday. This way if Nat. Gas continues down I can reload on the cheap. I am going back to my strategy of watching and maybe jumping in for the push to the close of the Open Outcry at 2:30. I will be watching closely and see what way it is trending at 1:00-1:30. Looks like we will be able to get out with no loses and 10%+ on half of our positions. I don’t know about you, but I am only paying $7.99 flat per trade, so no big deal going in and out. Talk to you later.
Ryan
TGB/KMK Question: I have read some things about TGB taking ownership of some shares in KMK. Is anyone more familiar with this and able to share information on any ownership rights here? thanks!
edward keegen is a lemming but I will stick my neck out and say that Brent Crude will not get below $60 again before the end of this year.
Is this clear enough ???
Took on hod today….should gyrate here just abit….thanks for the heads up Peter…….
This is a silly trade.
Oil will go the 90’s before it goes back to the 50’s …
Ryan,
Put a stop on HNU at 4.31 (just below yesterday’s post-announcement low). Still gives me a few cents profit on the half position (+ of course, yesterday’s profit). Most stops get hit, but if it doesn’t, I will probably sell it at the close. I hate owning these things overnight, because the next day gaps always seem to be down (at least if I’m holding any – lol).
I use a low-cost broker too, I don’t want the cost of commissions to be a factor when considering trading decisions.
Another reason I personally went short temp. with hod…is ,I feel the markets will pull abit going into August dog days of summer….oil is attached at this point to the equities/indicies imo…so it may falter….not for long …just a correction….the bigger play may come this fall if the markets retest lows which many still think….?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????// This may fit with Peter’s thinking not sure.
Ryan,
That didn’t take long – just got stopped out of HNU, so it’s safe for you to buy again – lol.
Ryan/klaus…there were a couple gas analysts on in the last few days thinking that gas will weaken thru august. The temperatures in alot of North America especially Canada have been way under norm so unless production cuts start to take hold it may weaken abit…just thought I’d mention that but having said that there are others who think it is verdone and will pop….just to confuse us..lol
Klaus,
I was able to save a few more pennies by getting out earlier. I was out at $4.39. Just after I sold I watched it climb to $4.51 and then down to $4.28 just now. Lots of volatility. It looks like they want to push the price down today. I will see if I jump back in or not around 1′ish. Still made some money and have everything out now to take advantage. I see no way of losing money at these levels if one was to get caught on the wrong side. It just depends on your time horizon for holding. I can’t see needing more than a month or so to get back to these Nat. Gas prices if it does decide to head south. This is why I have no problem throwing big money at HNU (bull side only) at these prices. I see almost zero risk!!!! As long as you can leave your money in there for a month or so, if you get caught on the wrong side. I have some crazy money in some highly speculative gold exploration plays (AZG and PEM) right now and if they don’t pan out, my back up plan is recoup what I can and throw everything into HNU. It’s a sure bet at these prices, IMHO.
Chris,
I pretty much said everything up top, but I agree they could drop a bit in Aug. and I will be buying if they do. This is why I am still going in and out of HNU and HND (HND on occasion). I am keeping a close eye on Natty and I will be locking in my positions very soon. I think 200% in HNU is possible within 8-12 months, with almost zero downside risk. Also when playing these commodity ETF’s you eliminate the chance of your investment going to zero totally. You take away the chance of management making some bonehead decision that could potentially ruin a good stock, by sticking to these ETF’s. Peter has his “no brainer” plays, and this is my “no brainer” play (also it has huge upside potential). Believe me I am no Peter Grandich and never will be. Peter has more knowledge about the markets in his pinky finger than I have total. These are just some of my thoughts. Please take these thoughts for what they are. Good luck.
Ryan
Ryan…hopefully we get a cold winter…[not, cold depresses me]…lol….but having said that I need to make money so albeit I’ll take a cold winter since I don’t go out much in it anyway. Any how sometimes with a cool summer which we have…we get only a moderate winter. So we’ll see if prices rise say over 5….I’m looking to play both the ones you ment. hnu may be riskier than gas but if you catch it moving in the right direction it’s better money
Chris,
If Nat. Gas prices get below $3.00 here in August. I will be mortgaging my house and other properties to throw everything I can into HNU. That is a true statement. One must remember. I have a high level of risk tolerance. I like to gamble. This is a gamble. One I am willing to take. In my mind, you have to take risks in life to get ahead. I am currently taking that risk. Good luck.
Ryan
Short Oil ? Wahahahahahahahaha…..
Like Goldman Sachs ? Wahahahahaha……
Here’s an opinion on ng and nat gas
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12412.html
No stop loss ????
Wow!
Well worth the 6 min. listen. I agree it’s time “We the People” take back this country. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jeYscnFpEyA
Hocus Pocus, why don’t you go against this trade to satisfy your urges?
Well hod is def. turning out to be a painful trade so far….hopefully it regains next week…gap is almost closed……but oil’s on fire..ouch getting singed from the heat….
Chris,
I don’t know if you saw, but with today’s uptrend in oil Peter has added shorting oil to his model portfolio. I am adding more. I know it hurts right now, but it won’t next week.
Ryan