I like to comment on a few model portfolio companies and Grandich clients.
Please note I will not response to every comment somewhere in Cyberspace about any and all companies of mine. The amount of false, half-truths and misinformation comments provided by people with personal agendas is not something I give any mind to. I notice as this blog becomes more popular, there’s an element that is using it for agendas not in the best interests of most. Just know if there’s really a need to comment on a matter, yours truly will. Until then, don’t let these folks disrupt you.
Northern Dynasty Minerals – I’ve truly lost count on the number of actions those opposed to the Pebble Deposit have taken. To my knowledge none have succeeded and I believe this latest salvo shall meet the same result. It’s critically important for anyone who speculates in the mining and exploration industry to understand that environmental opposition is a way of life for some and will always be present. The environmentalists need media attention as it helps fund their causes.
Make no mistake about it I believe the environment is a critical issue in all mining and exploration manners. In this case, it’s important to understand this is not a lawsuit against NDM, its partner or the deposit.
It’s this group against the State of Alaska. I not only believe the case is without merit, but I anticipate a variety of people, groups, etc., to come out against this action as it goes to the heart of Alaska’s constitution. I’m no attorney (thank God) but I would not be surprise to learn that one or more groups enact an “intervener status” in this case.
I fully expect this latest action to end up where all other Pebble-related actions have gone – nowhere. At $6 U.S. or under the stock is a compelling speculation.
Nevsun Resources – Earlier today was an example of “super-overreaction” of a news story and some comments in cyberspace that led to some making an uninformed decision. The United States and Eritrea have been at odds for quite some time. A comment by Hillary Clinton that really was nothing new caused some emailers to state they sold on the news. That’s fine if they want to think this somehow has ratcheted up things but these sellers sold because they weren’t even aware this was already well known item and almost certainly discounted by the market. Once again emotional decisions are almost always poor ones. Yes, the situation could turn for the worse but so can I get hit by a car crossing the street. The thought process should have been is this news (no), and does it change the reasons for owning the stock (no)? Will there be some distracters burning the midnight oil hoping this situation does explode? Based on this blog-yes. But at this point it would be like sitting on your bed and not moving knowing sooner or later you’re going to hurt yourself somehow.
I would add to positions if we get a pullback under $1.50 U.S.
Continental Resources – Yet another no-new-news situation. Back in June at the Vancouver Resource show, three young adults stood outside the Convention Center with a bed sheet sign calling for no mining in Tibet. There were a couple reporters covering the “event”. Do these people have a right to express their opinion? Absolutely. Do they present a serious obstacle now? Absolutely not. Again, distracters will use any and all news to try and impact the uninformed. In this case, China is just too darn big and powerful for anybody or country to oppose it on major matters, let alone mining. Continental management has gone very tight-lipped and just says all systems are a go. Knowing Hunter-Dickinson as I do, I take them at their word.
Taseko Mines – The train has indeed left the station. Where it is on the tracks will be discussed in a conference call next Wednesday. I’ll be the one with the caboose hat on.
Grandich Client Companies
Apella Resources – Following up to my report earlier this week, again a naysayer with obvious lack of real understanding expresses a counter view in cyberspace and my email/phone lights up. This badly informed person tried to assert that the world was full of Vanadium and especially Australia.
What that anonymous party failed to mention is the fact that Windimurra was the only Vanadium project of real merit in Australia…though there may be other small ones that I’m unaware of. Windimurra has a proven 45-50 million tonnes, whereas Lac Dore alone contains a proven 102 million tonnes at higher average grades. Lac Dore is actually the second biggest V deposit in the world, ranking only behind Highveld in South Africa. Apella Resources expects Iron-T and Lac Dore North to be significantly larger than the Lac Dore. It is particularly important to note that as of recently, Windimurra went bankrupt due to separation issues with their ore(though I would want to do some digging to find out exactly what the issues were).. One more important point is that though China has significant Vanadium supplies, theirs are large low grade deposits and with growing demand they are now slowing exportation of Vanadium, and increasing import of additional supplies. When looking at all of these deposits, one of the most compelling points for Apella, is that all of our projects are surface or near surface mineralization making them open-pitiable. Any time you are looking at an underground operation for Vanadium, your grades must be very high to make it economic.
ATW Gold – Move over Donner Resources, ATW Gold is now the Rodney Dangerfield of juniors. Actually it had lots of respect but that has been called into question of late by some investors, justifiably or not. Deservingly or not, management needs to restore confidence and they can do so by delivering on their plans. I have every reason to believe they can and would use any further weakness as an opportunity to be part of an emerging gold producer.
A former client who I still follow is Eastmain Resources. I spoke about them on www.kereport.com Listen here.
And finally, what’s a penny really worth these days?
The way this has been written, I presume Eastmain is being viewed as a take over target by ATW Gold (or am I reading way too much into this?)
Steve way, way too much. It appears to be just another thought of Peter’s.
Peter
Earlier today I sold off my NSU partly due to the Hillary comment but also because there are a lot of good stock picks in stable places. I admire you Peter but you do have clients to keep happy, and while I am positive you are the model of honesty, still some problems don’t have to be discussed. So Peter I am like you, rumors don’t bother me but I am free to sell any stock for any reason so don’t think I went off half cocked. I greatly admire you and value your judgment and look forward to these updates so thanks again for all you do.
Adriana Resources has a substantial open pitable vanadium resource in Finland, iron projects nearby in Quebec & also in Brazil. How does Adriana Resources vanadium project compare with Appella?
http://www.adrianaresources.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=194291
http://www.adrianaresources.com/s/LacOtelnuk.asp
Gary NSU is not a client of Peter’s. I think Peter was targeting a earlier poster who’s only contribution I can see is to try and scare readers.
Larry
thanks for the correction, He seemed to be saying that investors got scared out by the post and I wanted to assure him that I had some profit and was looking for a more secure position. In my case it wasn’t a uninformed decision. I do value Peters opinion on companys 99% of the time.
Took a flyer on tko last week Peter….in at 2.15 and looking just to hang on for abit….thanks…..watching nsu very close for a buy..
With respect to Australian vanadium resources:
Windimurra went into administration during the construction phase of their project in Feb 2009. They had a shortfall of around $80m.
Reed Resources have identified a resource of around 65Mt at 0.82% V2O5. This is the highest grade vandium reserve identified in Australia to date (compared to Windimurra’s grade of 0.47% V2O5).
This gives Barrambie a mine life of 12 years – while producing 6,000t of vanadium per year.
It starts at surface and has only been drilled to a depth of 60m and is still open at depth and along strike. Reed has carried out 55,000m of drilling in the proces of defining this resource and has carried out both lab and pilot scale test work.
Vanadium is a very interesting commodity with significant potential for demand growth which we believe would require a lot more vanadium than what Barrambie will produce.
Good luck to all.
Uranium seems to be a forgotten area…you would think as the economies rev up that this would be a good time to start accumulating some stocks. takeovers/mergers should start to happen, an example would be denison/ Hathorne battling it out for a junior recently…any thoughts out there?
Peter,
Thanks for the update on these companies. Great to see you clear the air of some doubts, in times when doubts are raised. Thank you for all your hard work. Take care.
Ryan
Petey my boy! I’m mad at you. Can’t one of your bold predictions blow up so one of those adversaries of yours lurking out there can come here and blast you? You can just feel them leaning on the blog hoping to give it to you-lol
The good news it will come as even Petey puts his pants on one leg at a time.
Thanks for Taseko. The wife is getting a new car now thanks to you.
Klaus,
Good to see you played the lottery. I am nervous about shorting oil again today, as it is all over the place. The US dollar is up and the markets are up. Oil doesn’t know which way to go. What’s the charts saying. Also could you give me a T/A on WTM, West Timmins Mining. That would be appreciated. I would also do instant messanger just don’t know how. LOL! Peter will let us know if we are cluttering the boards. There will always be the negative nellies out there. Glad to see the support. I hope to one day get called back to my real day job, and this blog will probably know when that is. HAAhah! Right now I am enjoying learning and sharing with this board. Good luck out there.
Ryan
Treasuries: In an earlier rendition of the portfolio Peter had recommended going short TBT and PST. Many made money on that trade. Below is some rather interesting information on the manipulation of the Treasury auctions that came from Lou Scatigna’s blog (a/k/a The Financial Physician). (Lou is on Peter’s list for his financial conference) The Aden sisters have indicated that interest rates must go up but now is not quite the time to make any such trade/investments. After reading the paraphase of Lou’s blog, any thoughts from anyone on taking up the TBT trade once again? (By the way this is a vanilla water down version of what Mr. Scatigna actually posted about this matter.
After the 5 year auction went badly, surprisingly the 7 year auction went well even as commented on by Rick Santelli. Looked like demand was strong for Treasuries. We now know what happened. Fed pre arranged that the Primary Dealers would make the trade by promising them that the Fed would buy 1/2 of what the Dealers bought. This is an indication that the economy and the credit markets are not really on the mend as why otherwise the need to quietly prop up the Treasury markets?
Hi Peter, can you update on KNP, seems a lot of shares traded so far something is up?
Thanks
Anna
I am uneasy with shorting oil as well. $ has been up most of the week I believe and oil has not moved much – oil should be going down. Then today $ up over one point and oil is down just 23 cents. Feels to me oil is just waiting to make a pop to the upside?
Looks to me like the market should have a pullback soon and TBT could pull back into the 40’s. If a person is in for the long haul it’s hard but just have to ride out the pullbacks but I am tempted to sell today -both DTO and TBT and just wait and see what next week brings? Comments welcome.
Well i read that the market should have a pull back as there has been alot of insider trading and the market seems to be over bought.
THe oil better go down or i am going to be at a loss also.
Hang Grandich David. How dare him suggest a losing trade-lol
LOL, well oil by rights should go down as there is alot of supply out there and companys are not laying off as much because there is no one left in the job market to lay off any more and they are not hiring either also people are running out of employment insurance so that tells me that people are not willing to travel as much or spend too much.
Oil really doesn’t know which way to go. That’s what the charts are saying. Since the initial DTO buy signal on Tuesday, it’s just traded sideways. This trade is now a 50/50, methinks. I’m selling all my leveraged ETFs at the close. With these things I have a day trader’s mentality. Good luck to anybody with more nerve than me.
Ryan – WTM is almost going parabolic. I know no form of technical analysis can properly handle stocks that do that. I don’t like to chase stocks like this, but if I happen to own them, I usually sell off little bits of my position on the way up. When the accelerated trend line breaks, I sell the rest and say thanks for all the fish (hitchhiker’s guide to the galaxy).
Strengthening us dollar may put a damper on commodities..hopefully oil…..Ryan wtm def overbought territory…week;y rel strength at 80 and turning down….if it closes with a weekly lower high it’s poaa. that run may be tiring and may head to double top..anyhow if it takes out the latest weekly monthly high then game is on…currently running outside the monthly bollinger and may need to retract back in and consolidate. Momo does this so it’s def running on exuberance imo…but if it does stay running prabolic high 3’s could be possible since res. is lacking above that high….anyhow must clear the prev. high made last mth/weekly chart…if it does retrace a 50 percent fib retracement would be the equa; of the full breakout candle on the monthly…a 30 percent ONLY would be bullish at around the 1.60 area……anything above would of course be just a pause in the momo…..
If commodities start to top out abit found a commodity bear etf that trades tsx…hmd….horizons mining bear
Thanks Klaus and Chris,
Oil is way too wacky for me right now. I am out and will wait to see what update Peter gives this weekend. I agree oil could go either way at this point. I will look to our fearless leader for guidance on this one. WTM is just something fun I am playing around with. It seems quite interesting, with their one huge hole gold intercept of 273 ft. grading 12.75 g/t. I am just praying for good news from AZG, as this is my biggest position by FAR. Literally praying. Everyone have a good weekend.
Ryan
Im curious about some silver plays…gpr for instance is butting against the lt downtrend line and could break over soon…or next month…of course it could also go down following the dt further down….it looked like accumulation at points with the volume…we’ll see
Commodities traders Glencore International and Noble Group are thought to head a list of nine parties in the running to buy Windimurra Vanadium’s (WVL) almost-completed mine and plant near Mt Magnet.
Brian McMaster, of WVL receiver KordaMentha, has asked parties to submit final binding offers by the middle of next month.
Mr McMaster confirmed yesterday the timetable had slipped because of unexpected high interest in the project, with 55 parties having been through the WVL data room.
He had originally called for final bids by the end of this month.
WVL collapsed in February when it ran out of cash with construction of the project only 90 per cent complete. At the time WVL said it needed another $80 million to tide it over until it could rely on production cash flows.
KordaMentha, which was appointed by a Merrill Lynch-led group of secured creditors owed $201 million, is hoping to reap as much as $200 million from the sale of the project.
Mr McMaster would not reveal the names of parties in the running but said they were involved in site visits and WVL management presentations as part of due diligence efforts.
Noble, whose vanadium offtake agreement with WVL is thought to remain valid, is understood to still be in the race, as is Glencore, whose associate Xstrata was once the owner of the controversial Mt Magnet project.
The list is also thought to include Chinese and Indian groups
The only large cheap source of Vanadium will be the +200 million tonne target of URANIUM STAR CORP. (URST.OB) Their stock is flying now that they just announced the size of the target and the fact that it is sediment-hosted makes my point – they are profitable even at $5. All the rest need at least $10 vanadium to make mining profitable. URST is still going higher due to lab results to come in confirming grade and size as well as a pending TSX listing around the corner.
Yours,
Oprah (Invest in MY book club!)