AGORACOM Chief Commentator, Peter Grandich, stated the following just a few days ago:
In terms of the long-term uranium market, I stick by my previous prediction: Demand
continues to out-strip supply and the medium to long-term outlook for uranium remains
very bullish.
As much as I hate to admit that he is so often right about matters pertaining to economics (and so often wrong about matters pertaining to Football), further support for Peter’s position can be found in a recent post by my friend and, more importantly, one of the world’s top 10 financial bloggers, Barry Ritholtz. Barry posted a very important statistic from this report:
I hope you find the information to be helpful in your analysis of the junior Uranium markets.
Regards,
George
Just ment. uranium may be a play soon…thanks George….next couple weeks should be time hopefully for a good entry
How would you play this market?
Klaus,
I don’t know if the charts for Nat. Gas matter now, but what are they saying. It looks like the price is going to break down even further. What do you say. Thanks.
Ryan
VR Trader came out with a recommendation today to buy DNN (DML in Canada). Some movement going on there. He usually deals in short term versus longer term trades. FYI
Jim…not sure if your’re asking me….but here goes….safest bet is u…uranium participation…it’s a fund [I'm sure there are many]……..other than that producers first…pdn is a favourite…dml has garnered a chinese investor so back on the radar….there are others of course eg…the biggest pure play but not a small cap is cco…Cameco.
next the explorers that hold land, or have proven resource, but possibly not the cash or if they do are some time away from a mine and could be takeover target…lam, cxx,hat,
lam for instance has a big inventory of land and uranium but the Australian gov’t so far has not allowed it to mine the goods…if that changes….
A small cap co.pnp ..Pinetree capital has a large holding of small cap miners that include may uranium investments…
Like I said there are many co’s out there and if mergers start to take place or uranium rebounds co’s like cameco and the smaller producers should rise first….
hnu,gas,hun…all hard to track now because there is no history…so from what I can see they can freefall from here….best to stand aside until there is a clear bottom imo…..if nat gas which has now breached 3 falters to 2 it could get uncomfortable until the turn.Worst prediction was a buck but don’t know if that’s even realistic….that sounds way overly bearish. Most are saying 5-6 but no specific time periods.
Thanks Susan…I like the fact that they had a large investor come in earlier in the year.I’ve got a number that I’m following and I’m sure most will pop when the time comes….the safer being u since it is a fund but sure you know that.
Jay Taylor just on bnn …said he was lighting up on gold stocks…figure a harsh correction in sept/oct will drag them down…so maybe cash is king for abit.
Gart ment. nat gas as prev. poster mentioned…also said hehad a small long gold position. Some don’t like this guy…but he seems to be a go to guy for info….??
Jay Taylor and Bob Hoye
Peter,
Before the meltdown you were in the same camp as Jay Taylor and Bob Hoye and all three of you were very right. Recently, Taylor and Hoye have been calling for another meltdown starting sometime this fall and lasting until early 2010 followed by another great buying opportunity paticularly in precious metals. You don’t seem to be in that camp this timePeter. Can you please comment? Where do you see the markets going this fall and winter from here?
These oil etf’s are wierd…oil is currently up .33…..dxo bull is down 4 cents and hod bear is up 6 cents……
Chris you are comparing spot vs. next month future. Both are different values, HOD is traded in units and rebalances every day against the closing price of next months future price. With the rebalancing daily and fees you are swimming upstream especially if there is volatility.
Thanks John…..
Peter do you still follow fco….formation…cobalt may come to play soon….hearing more and more…..
So, with Gold poised with up potential this fall, and stocks likely retreating, this would mean avoiding gold stocks and GDX type ETFs which trend the same as non-metal stocks, with only play being either GLD or actual bouillion. Agreement or debate?
Ryan,
Obviously, natty has still not broken its short-term downtrend. No bottom in sight. I think this is one where the charts won’t be able to predict much. It just seems to want to keep drifting down. One day something will happen and there will be a big pop up. Probably after I give up, of course -lol.
I was hoping that if it cracked $3, that might spark a 2-3 day short-covering rally. Hope is not a good trading strategy, so if nothing happens by the close, I’ll reduce my position by half, and wait for that elusive downtrend break to re-enter.
I hate to say it but Jay Taylor makes sense… watch the BNN interview. Basically second wave of credit “reality” coming. Markets, all markets heading lower. Indiscriminant selling, getting rid of good and bad taking down PM stocks. Listen to it and make your own decisions. Why I am paying extra attention to Jay Taylor is he and Peter made the same call some 18 months ago and both were right. Of course there are other “analysts” saying we are going higher. I would like to get Peter’s thoughts.
Klaus,
I threw in the towel yesterday…which would usually send it higher today.but even that didn’t help,lol. good luck guys
chris ruel – Thanks for info, but I think you cited stocks on the TSX, you don’t know Uranium plays on the US market, or anyone else?
Does anyone know when HNU rolls over its nat gas contracts?
I don’t like holding these things for more than a few days regardless, & I certainly don’t want to be holding this when they roll it over to the more expensive contract.
Any replies would be appreciated.
dml denison trades us as dnn, there is uec, cco cameco trades us as ccj…there’s are tons of small caps so you can run a search…but beware of there finances etc
Jim,
If you are interested in the technicals of uranium trading, the go to guy is Merv http://techuranium.blogspot.com/
If you scroll down, there is a table covering most of the public uranium companies. Most are Canadian, but there are a few that trade on the US market.
Klaus,
They just rolled it last week. We are already trading 100% on October’s contract. I am not giving up hope. I know about holding these things long term, but I am not selling to miss the pop. I have done that too many times. Like I wrote earlier, I think next week has more hope for us bulls. I am holding till then and will add every couple of days if it continues down. I am only down 12%, so far and I am stubborn. I guess playing with the juniors has given me thick skin. I usually jump on them just before they crash 40-50%. LOL! I need AZG to come out of it’s two week halt soon and with some good news, so I can take some profits and throw it all at HNU. I hope it lines up just right. AZG out of the halt with good news, right when Natty bottoms. That would OK with this guy. Dennis Gartman saying to buy Natty when he finally stops getting phone calls and e-mails, is just arrogant and stupid, IMHO.
Ryan
Interesting “stuff’…charts,comments
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article12876.html
Thanks Ryan,
Glad I missed the rollover losses. It’s comforting to know I’m only taking regular losses – lol. Good thing I keep my positions small (and this one’s getting smaller). One minor positive development on the hourly HNU chart – a MACD divergence (price lower, MACD higher). Not sure that will be enough for me to hang on to my full position today – still leaning towards selling half. The coin will be tossed at 3:45.
Yes, Gartman can be a jerk sometimes, but he does have a point – things happen when you least expect it, not when everyone’s looking for it.
Good luck on AZG!
john, can you copy and paste the site for the bnn site you reference?
Susan..here you go..re jay…commercial plays first
http://watch.bnn.ca/market-morning/august-2009/market-morning-august-20-2009/#clip205492
Klaus/Ryan…ya knooowww…if you look at hnu weekly…you’ll see that it was starting to trade in a range or sideways channel……you can do a projection from that channel…1.50 range……breakdown at 4bucks-1.50 range…gives a projection of 2.50….maybe that’s a plausible,possible,with luck, hail mary bottom on hnu.
sorry meant hnu daily chart…you’ll see the channel
That hnu target would be strictly technical…this is driven at the momment by fundamentals….but I do wonder if it will actually be the bottom…anyhow it is a logical target from that daily chart.
looking at hnu volume…it’s 10 mill over normal…if this operates anything like a stock we’ll see capitulation volume much higher……
copper article…kmk ment. briefly
http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page36?oid=87755&sn=Detail
Looking at dxo and hod….bull and bear…dxo is resting on support and could build a flag….hod butted or cozied up to the broken line of the triangle……still no direction…..if dxo continues up or sideways….74-75 may be hit….I’m going to “GAMBLE” a trade on dxo if it goes thru the high just over 5…..obviously if oil goes down from here hod would enter back into the triangle and become the gamble…I guess we wait for a signal and see what the indicies are going to do also.jmo..
Some good conversation all day on bnn re nat gas…I’ll post this video but there is one on right now that the guy says nat gas could actually go to zero bid at times before it turns..i’ll try and get that once it’s available…Peter hope I’m not robbing you of video posts here..lol
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip205626
I saw that one too Chris. Hope it isn’t true. What would HNU trade at if nat gas is zero??? $-5 ??? I think it’s the same story when analysts were predicting $200 oil. I don’t know why nat gas producers are still pulling this stuff out of the ground. Must be the hedged producers like Encana.
I think hnu could gap down tomorrow…just tracking something on it and want to see if I’m right.
Gartman starts a fund – I wonder what Peter’s comment would be about this one? If Gartman has been so wrong about gold, can’t wait to see what the returns will be on this!
Dennis Gartman, an economist and the editor of the Gartman Letter, said he is creating his first hedge fund to speculate on assets including global equities and commodities.
The River Crescent Fund, created Aug. 17, seeks to raise $200 million over the first year, Gartman said today in an interview from Suffolk, Virginia. The fund already includes some “well-known hedge-fund managers,” he said, without identifying them. Gartman has managed guaranteed notes since 2007 and an exchange-traded fund since April in Canada.
The new fund “will trade equities, grains, metals and almost anything that moves in the global markets,” including crude oil, said Gartman, who also will invest his own money. “We have no mandate or limitation as to what I can or cannot trade. I am always long something and short something. I am always looking for ways to hedge my positions.”
check out poss. silver scenario
http://www.thegoldandoilguy.com/articles/
Gartman currently has a fund that trades under the ticker hag-un-t that is down -15.9% in 4 months.
Susan
Gartman alrady has a fund which is HAG.un-T. I don’t know how it compares to his new fund but the chart sure doesn’t look good. It seems most fund managers have a hard time beating the index. Maybe Peter should start up a fund,he’d be a star.
hag.un-t is not a hedge fund, he would only be able to short up to 20% of the value of the fund.
Evening everyone,
If the market drops say 15 to 20% won`t it pull down gold and uranium stocks? Can the price of gold go higher without inflation or a drop in the value of the dollar? Also a symmetrial triangle is forming and seems to favor higher gold prices but could go the other direction just as ease. [check gold 321] You have more experience than I have. what say you?
Thanks, Lynn
Tomorrow or so… SGGroup analyzes Gold & The Gold Mining Shares from a technical perspective.
Western Lithium Corporation is a real hot commodity stock that I have been following. It was up more than 70% last week on huge volume. Gold Stock Bull commented on Aug. 14 that the last time this stock made such a move it went on to produce a gain of more than 800%.
TICKER: TSX.V:WLC
DESCRIPTION: Western Lithium is developing its Nevada lithium resource into potentially one of the world’s largest strategic, scalable and reliable sources of battery grade lithium carbonate. The property has a NI 43-101 resource estimate for the initial stage of development and in total hosts a historically estimated 11 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). The company intends to start production in 2013, coinciding with the expected increase in production of lithium-ion batteries for hybrid/electric vehicles.
Website:http://www.westernlithium.com
Lithium has emerged as the hot commodity as investors search for ways to cash in on an anticipated flood of electric cars to the market. Junior explorer/ developer of lithium Western Lithium rallied hard last week, up 71% on massive volume. Until recently, investors remained low-key on the subject of lithium and its role in cars due to the cost and safety issues. However, the opportunity is there and it looks like it has the potential to be massive. It is looks like the pending release of the Chevy Volt, the Nissan Leaf and other electric vehicles could be what is getting investors really excited.
Western Lithium owns the largest known lithium deposit in North America. The near surface lithium clay deposit is located in Nevada, USA and was initially discovered by the U.S. Geological Survey and Chevron USA in the 1970s. Engineering work completed by Chevron & later by the U.S. Bureau of Mines in the ‘80s is now being advanced by Western Lithium.
The company’s flagship Kings Valley property has a National Instrument 43-101 resource estimate for the initial stage of development and in total hosts a historically estimated 11 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). The project has a well-developed local infrastructure, and Nevada has a long history in the metals and industrial mineral mining industry. The company plans a scoping study during Q3 of 2009, a pre-feasibility study with results from additional drilling during 2010 and projected production by 2013.
Western Lithium is well-funded and debt free with CDN$7.3 million cash on the books. They recently completed a $5.5 million private placement in May of this year and have a market cap of CDN$70 million. . .the stock has broken out recently on heavy volume. While some might view the stock as overbought, I believe lithium mania is only getting started and that Western Lithium will outperform its peers both in the short and long term. Despite the recent spike in price, shares are selling at a premium of just 20% to their highs, which were put in well before the recent flurry of bullish news. The last time the stock made a move like the current one, it continued to produce a gain in excess of 800%!”
– Gold Stock Bull (08/14/09