Agoracom Blog
Grandich in Wall Street Journal
Posted by
at 6:53 AM on Monday, August 24th, 2009
Peter, is your position to buy ATW under .50 cent still valid?
Thank you
Anna
Any changes in Mr. Grandich’s opinions will be noted on Blog
Hi peter, I have short position in crude oil. I read your last update in that you expect the price to rise to $85 in next couple of months. Shall I exit from sell side and buy crude oil?
Anna- check Peter’s model portfolio to see what levels he recommends to purchase….but remember, this is free advice and you purchase at your own risk as by the time Peter can return a hold or sell recommendation, the market may have already moved.
taesko..tko eating away at resistance….if it breaks the high recently made…3.15 to 3.27
C’mon NAK…another 15 cents is all I’m asking for…”like taking candy from a baby”
Anyone interested in nat gas,
HNU just broke its downtrend line on the hourly chart. I doubt this is the final bottom, but a tradeable bounce may be in the cards. Stops should be put just below today’s low, around $2.70.
klaus…hnu still fighting res. on the daily….would like to see it clear that….ment. last week a possible os bounce by tues….watching very close now…..so maybe i’ll join you….a sideways open tomorrow will clear the res.leaving the poss. of a bounce higher…I’m going to see if we get a pull to around todays open…
Thanks Klaus and Chris. I am all in and don’t have anything to throw at it anyways. I am still waiting for my other stock to trade again. AZG is on it’s third week of a halt and no end in sight. The shareholders have really been left in the dark with this one, IMHO. I am still hoping for the stars to align, and AZG come out of a halt with good news, so that I can throw some more cash at HNU. These Nat. Gas prices are a gift. I would love to add to HNU at these levels, as I think averaging down instead of going in and out with HNU right now is more of a prudent play. I don’t want to be out when this thing goes POP. Still some time for lower prices and I will hopefully be adding. This Thursday I think we could get a build in the 40’s bcf. That could be the catalyst to send Natty prices higher from here. Time will tell. Good luck.
Ryan
Here is one weather analyst’s view on the Winter of 2009/2010. If it comes true, it could be good for the price of Natty.
Cold and Snowy Winter Forecast
July 20th, 2009 by Muller_Jim
According to AccuWeather.com’sChief Meteorologist Joe Bastardi next winter could be the coldest andsnowiest in more than five years for the Northeast, the traditionalstomping grounds for WinterCampers.com
According to Joe Bastardi, cooler-than-normal weather this summerin the Northeast could point to a cold, snowy winter for the Northeastand mid-Atlantic states.
“In years past, cooler summers have been followed by harsh winters,”Bastardi said. The Great Lakes and Northeast have been experiencingthe coolest summer in more than a decade and, after a period of moreclassic summer heat in coming weeks, cooler weather is expected tocontinue the trend of the “Year Without True Summer.” Temperatures inNew York City did not top 85 degrees in June this year. There have onlybeen three other times in recorded history when New York City failed toreach 85 in June. In each of those instances, snowy winters followed.“Chicago had 12 days in June when temperatures did not exceed 70degrees. This has happened only one other time — in 1969. That year wasfollowed by a snowy winter as well,” he said.
Bastardi predicts the current El Niño will fade over the winter andwill probably not play as much of a role in the overall weather patternas one would think during a typical El Niño year. The areas that willbe hit hardest this winter by cold, snowy weather will be from NewEngland through the Appalachians and mid-Atlantic, including NorthCarolina. Areas from New York City to Raleigh have gotten by the pasttwo years with very little snowfall. This year these areas could end upwith above-normal snowfall.
The storm track that could develop this year will bring storms upthe Eastern Seaboard. This type of storm track will differ from that ofthe past two years, when storms tended to take a track farther westfrom Texas into the Great Lakes. That track into the Great Lakesbrought unseasonably mild weather along the East Coast, on the morerainy side of the storms. The track this year right along the EasternSeaboard is on the cold, wintry side of the storms.
Elsewhere the Midwest and central Plains, which have been hit hardthe past two winters, may have below-normal snowfall and could evenaverage a bit milder than past years. A warm and somewhat dry weatherpattern is expected from the Pacific Northwest into the northernPlains. The typical barrage of winter storms that hit Seattle andPortland may not occur this winter and lead to below-normalprecipitation.
More info. for Nat. Gas bulls and bears, (Bears had better start covering).
Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Aug 20 10:39.
A yet ‘undisclosed’ hedge fund has taken out call options at triple — yes triple — the price of today’s spot market price for natgas come winter.
Here’s the mysterious trade in question:
As the FT reports:
Traders took notice last week when thefund, as yet undisclosed, spent millions for the right to buy USnatural gas at $10 (£6.03) per million British thermal units in Januaryand February, up from Wednesday’s spot level just above $3 per mBtu.
We, however, are not exactly aghast.
While current fundamentals are indeed weak and all evidence pointsto a glut of supply in the US market due to an ongoing proliferation ofshale production, there is another factor to natural gas prices thatshould not be forgotten: they are, and always have been, seasonal. And,come winter, the biggest determining issue — even with mounds ofstorage going into the season — will, as always, be weather.
Commodities-focused trading houses often even employ in-housemeteorologists just to try and beat offically published weatherforecasts for that reason.
Meanwhile, as can be seen below, a $10 bet is hardly out of thenormal range, even when compared to the seasonal deviation from summerprices of levels of around $3 per mBtu.
In which case, could this mysterious and supposedly questionablehedge-fund bet be more related to a view on the weather than anythingelse?
After all, on August 19 the World Meteorological Organization said the El Nino phenomenon — currently causing havocin soft commodity prices but which generally has a dampening effect onnatural gas prices as it brings warmer weather in the winter — mightactually turn out to be weaker than first expected.
Here’s the Reuters report for your consideration:
GENEVA, Aug 19 (Reuters) – An El Ninobuilding up in the Pacific looks like being only a mild version of thephenomenon that has in the past brought devastation around the globe,the United Nations weather agency WMO said on Wednesday.
Butthe World Meteorological Organisation warned that even a weak El Nino —a phenomenon in which changing sea temperatures in the Pacific Oceanaffect weather around the world — could seriously disturb normalclimate patterns in many regions, bringing drought to some places andheavy storms to others. “What appears to be emerging is a weak tomoderate El Nino, but one that will continue for the rest of this yearand stretch into the first quarter of 2010,” senior WMO climatescientist Rupa Kumar Kolli told a news conference.
He said thenew El Nino would have nothing like the strength of the 1997-98 version— the worst on record — which produced extreme weather that wreakeddeath and destruction across the southern hemisphere and parts of thenorth. That El Nino brought huge storms which battered westerncoasts and towns in Latin America, killing hundreds of people there andelsewhere around the globe and causing billions of dollars of damage inAsia and Australia.
Both developing countries and richer nationshave been anxiously watching the new event in the Pacific, fearing thateven minor changes in weather patterns could seriously damage economiesalready battered by the global recession. Kolli was presenting aWMO situation report and outlook for the alternating and linked ElNino/La Nina events in which sea surface temperatures in the Pacific,the world’s largest ocean, either climb above average or drop belowit. Kolli did not say how El Nino would affect any particularregion.
Related links:
Natgas, literally under pressure – FT Alphaville
U.N. weather body sees “weak to moderate” El Nino – Reuters
One more link. This one is to AccuWeather. It is the article that is used by the author in the post two up from this one. This article has much more info. and detail about what this analyst believes this winter has in store for the U.S.
Ryan
http://www.accuweather.com/news-weather-features.asp?date=2009-07-14_21:25
I found this in cyperspace.
Dear subscriber,
We think the Natural Gas prices are near the bottom.
The summer is about to end, and colder months are approaching. For
that reason we bought ETFS Natural Gas on the Paris Stock Exchange
just before closing at 0.37 EUR.
ETFS Natural Gas – Historic Chart
Kindly yours,
The Caesars Report Team
http://www.caesarsreport.com
DISCLOSURE: Author holds a LONG position in ETFS Natural Gas
******
nvax rallied on good volume….above 5 once again…it sure looks like it will hold and a possible flag building…..btw in on hnu on the pull to near the open and with a finger on the sell button if it retraces to anywhere below todays open…
btw poss. cup and handle on tko st charts
Possibility of another Caribbean storm. Maybe that’s why there’s a little bid in nat gas today.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
nvax making new daily highs…powering ahead on vol.
Chris,
Judging by the charts of the flu stocks NVAX, SVA, & BCRX, we are in for one serious pandemic. IMHO, nothing predicts future events better than the stock market. I finally bought some NVAX & SVA today. Tomorrow I will be stocking up on canned food & preparing the bunker (I’m actually semi-serious this time).
Klaus one low flyer I may enter is gnbt….most flu remedies are being made with eggs…versus a type of placebo that gnbt uses…anyhow I’ll link a video from today and it’ll be explained. Traded this before and think although it may not perform as well it will perform…for poss. buyout reasons and a cheaper remedy for country’s that cannot afford to pay for what companies like nvax will produce. Nvax btw is on the forefront…so far…..as per news last week…..so I’m holding till fall where the flu bug is expected to come back big time…anyhow watch this vid and keep in mind I very much dislike biotechnology companies so treat it like a risk play….It has also being slowly building volume days and has being holding it’s ground……a commercial may play first..
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip206594
Ryan…what’s his name ..gartman…ridiculed that trade on nat gas…something about the con tango killed any potential profits so he said he didn’t know why they did what they did….who knows maybe they know something he doesn’t know…
Chris,
Thanks for the link. I agree with your view on biotechs. They spike up on some news, then drift down for months, even years, until the next news – and the next news better be good, or else!
But not a bad speculation right now, methinks.
Chris & Klaus – thanks fella’s for the heads up on the flu stocks. Only wish I had know about these before the big run up. I think you are on to something here so please keep posting with any relevant info you think you fellow investors should know.
Did a quick IBD search and the volumes on Kaus’s recent buys are big which indicates others and possibly some mutual funds may be buying.
NVAX stock price increase today 9.5% with volume up 175%
SVA stock price increase today 11% with volume up 275%
BCRX price increase 25% with volume up 421%
BCRX has the highest IBD composite rating as follows –
BCRX 92
SVA 80 (on 8/19 announced their 2Q profit grew 76%)
NVAX 83
Are you guys concerned that the run up has been to far, too fast? any other info on these stocks you care to share? thanks!
oh forgot one other thing about a stock near and dear to many of us…..TGB
TGB’s price increase today was 4,6% with trading volume up 35%. Here’s hoping others take notice.
Nanotenbucks….any thoughts from you on NAK today?
Bloomberg article today on swine flu in part states:
Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) — Swine flu may infect half the U.S. population this year, hospitalize 1.8 million patients and lead to as many as 90,000 deaths, more than twice the number killed in a typical seasonal flu, White House advisers said.
In a report by the President’s Council of Advisers on Science and Technology, President Barack Obama today was urged to speed vaccine production and name a senior member of the White House staff, preferably the homeland security adviser, to take responsibility for decision-making on the pandemic. Initial doses should be accelerated to mid-September to vaccinate as many as 40 million people, the advisory group said.
Susan,
Chris has posted on NVAX for some time, but I refused to chase the flu stocks until today. They appeared to have peaked a month ago, but today they started what appears to be another run up. I am definitely concerned that they have run up too fast – going parabolic even. So my positions are relatively modest. These stocks have a history of spiking on every flu scare (e.g., SARS, bird flu).
The reason I finally jumped in today, is that H1N1 is far more likely to become a pandemic, even though the current version is mild. Because it is so easily spread, the possibility of mutations, and scarier versions is higher than normal. The level of angst could be enormous this fall, which COULD cause these stocks to run to ridiculous levels. Eventually, these things will crash, so it will be tricky to know when to bail. I’m just going to use a simple trend line break on the daily charts.
TGB looks great technically. No reason to sell until it breaks its uptrend.
Suuuuuusan…….girl I have posted no less than half a dozen alerts on this stock since around a buck…..even had a short conversation with Klaus on the flu stocks before…also note my comments on tko[tgb] lately…especially today’s cups showing on the st charts…if it breaks the 3 high it’ll flip up the depth of the cups…..around the 3.30 area…..geez nvax…geez….there’s not much the nvax news releases don’t tell you. Some invester injected several mill. into the co. recently….i believe the if history repeats we will see on this 8-8.50 on this run….over time…this play runs and sells off to always create a new base…so it may take abit but it should get there….and if it gets really bad[flu]….poss. over 10…but I’ll be gone at 8 or so unless I see something that says to hold on……
btw…as far a the run up…you’re looking at momentum plays…..either play the jumps and bail or hang on…I said before I thought momo was in this and right I was…….they[whoever] is going to take this higher imo. Now that it is over 5 after some cons. it should hold….the other times it ran and was shorted right back down….this time at this point looks solid…we’ll see….I am not selling here personally….if the story gets better or worse in this case these plays will move higher as the defense stocks did back when the invasion happened. Once they do if they don’t get bought out which they do have a good chance from a bigger pharma play….if that doesn’t happen take the profit, don’t overhold and don’t look back…lol
Here is a link to another good Nat. Gas article from Bloomberg.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aUi3tNyYyL6A
Chris, I have been brain dead…..I should have listened to you buddy. Thanks for not giving up on us and still keeping us in the loop. Keep posting…darn, I could have made some $$$ if I had more cognizant of what you were saying. I am listening…speak to me! (ha ha) Seriously though, thank you.
Klaus, thanks. Keep us posted when you decide to bail on the flus stuff. I have talked tonight with several doctor friends and the issue will be if there is mutuations then the flus vaccines will do little to help us. This info could cause these stocks to crater but no such indication of that as of yet.
Susan I understand…you just can’t pay attn. or absorb all the stocks people mention especially high risk spec. stuff. I follow way too many stocks to look hard at any new ones unless they really grab my attn. or Peter mentions them. Anyhow always been a sucker for a story stock.Looking forward to the oil and gas plays in both stocks and commodities…even the gold and silver plays…….just don’t want to buy blind and poking away until something says to dive in….anyhow I watch volume alot….2 other I mentioned awhile back…much more spec…because they were beaten down small caps and I thought they needed to take them back to a buck to keep there listings….well it paid…neng was taken for a triple to over a buck and eght has almost doubled but has about .30 or so more to go. the co’s inst. buybacks and the stocks like little troopers were marched towards that magic number.Anyhow it’s all speculation. I think we’ll see some of this in the small cap mining plays but not necessarily for the same reasons. You are high on some of the exotic mineral plays….some of them have moved some and may be pkays after cons……I’m watching closely fco…I believe it was once tracked here but can’t totally recall. Anyhow there financing has to come but the issue is at what cost….cobalt play…..anyhow those are slower plays…..for now I want nvax to step up with multiple flag formations..or better yet zoom to the moon…lol…not sure how a severe pull in the s$p will treat it, and can’t forget uranium which may be a somewhat go to play in a pullback??????????….hmmmm…well lots of good people here so there should be some fun plays to make something…for sure
Susan,
I missed the run up because I was sceptical that the gains would hold. I’ve seen too many biotech stocks loose their gains soon after they pop up. Some don’t even hold for a day. Clearly, Chris was right & I was wrong.
Your doctor friends are right about the high possibility of the flu mutating (the more it spreads, the more likely this is). They are also right that the vaccine could fail because of this. I suspect they are wrong about that causing the stocks to crater. I think the panic level will increase, and panicky investors will drive the stocks even higher.
There are other ways to play this, too. APT comes to mind – they make the N95 masks. Unfortunately, this has run up just as much. CRXL is more sedate – they make monoclonal antibodies. This has not run up as much, but is a bit iffy technically. A high volume up day would make it a buy. I don’t own this one right now, but I’m looking at it.
Anyhow nvax res. at prev spike to 5.50 so we need to clear that…..it is poss to for a sym. tri. here……we’ll see
Any how guys/gals these are clearly risky plays so no one should feel they missed the boat…..it tough to climb on these.
Sorry typed 5.50 instead of 5.60….prev. spike on nvax…