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Archive for September, 2009

I’d Like To Encourage You

Posted by Peter Grandich at 7:10 PM on Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

to try a free two-week subscription to Bill Murphy’s daily newsletter.

Just highlight free trial link.

Model Portfolio Update

Posted by Peter Grandich at 9:04 AM on Wednesday, September 30th, 2009

Great Basin Gold (GBG-Alnet $1.44) is being added to my model portfolio. I also updated buy levels on several open positions.

Interesting comment on Taseko Mines

From the author’s mouth to God’s ears!

Farallon Mining – Keeps Delivering

Posted by Peter Grandich at 4:46 PM on Tuesday, September 29th, 2009

In this industry you see a lot of stories about mining projects and upside potential that may or may not deliver the goods. Well Farallon is a story that has not only delivered but they have delivered virtually on-time and on-budget. Farallon’s President & CEO Dick Whittington is starting to make a name for himself as one of the CEO’s that actually sets target and delivers results despite all the market turmoil over the past two years.

Mr. Whittington has successfully positioned Farallon as an emerging, low-cost, mid-tier mining company. To kick-start construction, Farallon undertook a heavily oversubscribed equity offering in the fall of 2006. Subsequently, in the spring of 2007, Mr. Whittington brought in Rothschilds and Societe General for a $30 million bank loan to finance equipment. Then, in the spring of 2008, when silver prices climbed significantly, Mr. Whittington signed a deal with Silver Wheaton worth $80 million for less than 10% of the G-9 mine’s revenue. Mr. Whittington used these funds to pay off the bank loan and complete construction of the G-9 Mine.  More recently a $30 million term loan with Credit Suisse was signed in the summer of 2009. This deal is a 4-year term loan at a 6.9% fixed interest rate that I believe, is lower than Teck’s recent loan rates.  Through these various transactions, Mr. Whittington has adeptly maneuvered Farallon through the financial machinations of taking an exploration play into an operating mine. For a relatively unknown junior mining company to pull all this off through the worst credit markets since the Depression, IMHO gives a huge vote of confidence in the G-9 mine and the Farallon management team.

All things being considered, Farallon’s management and specifically Mr. Whittington has been instrumental in bringing the G-9 Mine forward through a very difficult timing in the past two years.  There are a few exceptional CEO’s that come to mind in this industry and I believe that very soon the market can fully understand the many accomplishments of Mr. Whittington and start to “back the jockey”, as I did in New Orleans back in 2005, when Mr. Whittington coined the phrase “Mine by ‘09”. It is now 2009 and Farallon has a mine!

Farallon released its 2nd Quarter Financial Results on August 12, 2009. This was a particularly significant event as it was the first quarter of full commercial production at the G-9 Mine in Guerrero State, Mexico. The results speak for themselves. In their very first quarter Farallon was able to generate positive cash flow from operations of US$5.7 million dollars. For a new mine to generate cash flow in the first quarter of production is a remarkable achievement. As well, the cash costs of US$0.39 per lb of zinc are in the lowest 40% of zinc producers worldwide and show that the G-9 Mine is a high-quality asset.

Further development is in the works at Farallon including ramping the mill up to 2,000 tpd by July 2010, which can increase the production of zinc on an annualized basis to approximately 160 million lbs of zinc. And with improving cash costs, the G-9 Mine can become one of the most competitive zinc mines worldwide. In tandem, Farallon is resuming exploration work on the property. As Mr. Whittington says Farallon did not stop exploration on the property because they exhausted all of the exploration opportunity – quite the opposite. The company simply drilled off sufficient resources to have a critical mass of resources sufficient to build a mine. Over the last year, the focus was to get job #1 done – that of building the G-9 Mine, then turn the exploration taps back on.

As a result, exploration is expected to start again in earnest in October. The target is to increase the tonnage of high-grade resource at the G-9 Mine by 2 million tonnes over the next 12 months and provide for a re-rating on the stock valuation going forward.   A review of Farallon’s exploration news releases prior to shutting down exploration last year is most interesting. Six news releases in six months, each with excellent results – results that many company’s dream of – including the highest grade intersections on the property to date, 5 metres of 31% Zinc and 4% Copper.

The G-9 Mine seems destined to become a significant cash flow producer. As well, with the very real potential for resource expansion and mine-life increases, the Campo Morado property is shaping up to be a world-class mining district. Farallon owns 100% of the Campo Morado property and management has taken an excellent approach to exploring, financing, and developing the G-9 Mine. With this solid record of management this property is well on its way to become one of the leading mining camps globally and with it, Farallon can achieve its goal of being a low-cost, mid-tier mining company.

Technical Analysis 101

Posted by Peter Grandich at 4:54 PM on Monday, September 28th, 2009

I receive many emails about comments made about technical analysis. This is a good starters video.

My Q & A Session in Toronto.

Posted by Peter Grandich at 4:48 PM on Monday, September 28th, 2009

My favorite part of conferences is when I get a chance to do  a question and answer workshop. Here are links to my session at the Toronto Investment conference this past weekend.

UPDATE:  The good people at Cambridge House have asked us to take down these videos for now.  It is within their right as content owners of anything produced during the conference.  If and when the company makes their own video of the event available to the public, we’ll be sure to post it here.

Special Update

Posted by Peter Grandich at 4:40 PM on Monday, September 28th, 2009

We could be “finally” seeing the makings of a U.S. Dollar rally. Some sentiment indicators are so oversold and with bullish sentiment among dollar traders in the single digits, one can’t but help think there’s a rally in here somewhere.

This by no means changes any of my long-term outlooks but can come into play on the metals and energy side of things for the very near-term.

The combination of this and what’s looking more and more like a self fulfilling prophecy of the usual Commercials smashing the speculative longs on the Comex, could cause a very short-term shake out in gold. But with Physical buying so strong, any shakeout should only last as long as real hopes of the Vancouver Canucks winning the Stanley Cup.

The mini melt-up in the U.S. stock market continues to take hold.

The summer doldrums are gone and the month of October appears like it’s once again going to deliver large-scale volatility.

An amusing and interesting video.

Hedge Fund Legend, Julian Robertson, Paints The Case For Gold – Serious Inflation + US Armageddon If China/Japan Stop Buying Debt

Posted by AGORACOM - George at 3:51 PM on Monday, September 28th, 2009

Peter is in transit today but he saw the following post on my blog and thought it was important enough for all of you to see.

(The following quote via TraderMark)

Julian Robertson is a legend; when he speaks – I listen.

Robertson had the best hedge fund record throughout the 1980s and 1990s. It is reported that the compound rate of return to his investors was 32%. During his active years, he was considered to be the “Wizard of Wall Street.” His hedge fund, Tiger Management, became the world’s largest fund, which peaked at over $23 billion invested.

He seems to appear on CNBC once a year, this is our opportunity to learn via osmosis.

(a) Nailed it —> [Oct 30, 2007: Julian Robertson Calling for "Doozy of a Recession"] <— market, as a “forward looking indicator” was at all time highs
(b) Nailed it —> [Oct 13, 2008: Julian Robertson Buying Some of Our Names - But Bearish on Economy]

——

A few days ago, Mr. Robertson appeared on CNBC TV a couple of days ago and his comments have really caught the attention of online investors.  (Peter Grandich, AGORACOM Chief Commentator, would love him).  I’ve provided you with an 8-minute clip of the interview, which is worth its’ weight in gold given his track record.  Some of his comments include:

  • We’re in for some rough waters. The recession is temporarily over but the US has not addressed its problems
  • The US can’t possibly pay back its debt
  • Tragic that US leadership has put the country in this position
  • Correct course is to scale back, stop spending and start saving
  • It’s almost Armageddon if China and/or Japan stop buying US debt
  • Inflation risk is much higher than deflation
  • 6-7%  interest rate is conservative … we could easily see 15-20%
  • Chinese don’t want to stop buying our bonds – but there could be circumstances where they have to
  • His solution would cause temporary pain in America. People will have to ask for it because government won’t.
  • Japan could be forced to sell some long-term US bonds, which is much worse than not buying
  • China is buying short-term debt because US can’t sell long-term debt.  History has shown that short-term borrowing is fatal.
  • US has yet to attack their problems.  ”Stimulating” is just spend and borrow in disguise.  US needs to stop.

Drawing my own conclusions, gold would absolutely benefit from both high inflation and a loss of confidence in US debt, which would have to mean a loss of confidence in the $USD.  What were once fringe scenarios are now very plausible scenarios.

Regards,
George

Markets, Money and Life Show (Video) From The Floor Of The Cambridge Conference – September 28, 2009

Posted by AGORACOM - George at 3:26 PM on Monday, September 28th, 2009
Peter Has Gone From E-Mail To Blogging To Podcasting and Now YouTube.  Grandich 2.0!

Peter Has Gone From E-Mail To Blogging To Podcasting and Now YouTube. Grandich 2.0!

Good afternoon to you all and thanks to everyone that came out this weekend. The feedback we received from investors/visitors to this blog was simply fantastic and has only furthered our resolve to continue delivering great content pertaining to Markets, Money and Life.

To this end, please find enclosed our 2-part show which was taped this weekend from the floor of the Cambridge Conference.  It is in 2 parts because YouTube only allows videos up to 10 minutes, so part 1 is 9 minutes (hence, why you see me give the “chop” signal just before the 10-minute mark … remind me to beat our editor :-) and part 2 is 5 minutes.

The guys also needed time to come in and edit the video, which was especially difficult due to Peter’s demands that he look 10 years younger and a whole lot smarter … sorry Peter, we couldn’t get the Einstein hair to work :-)

The amazing thing about all this is that Peter Grandich has now gone from delivering his newsletter/thoughts via direct mail, e-mail, blogging, podcasting and now YouTube.   Talk about re-inventing yourself. Way to go Petey.

For those of you who are new to the show, click here for the archive, click here for the iTunes download, click here for the podcast page on SmallCapPodcast, where you can listen to each show.

Without further adieu, here are both parts of the interview. Yes, that is me wearing an Eli Manning Giants shirt. Peter is going to get it autographed and we are going to auction it off for his favourite charity.

PART 1

PART 2

Five-Star Interview

Posted by Peter Grandich at 12:33 PM on Monday, September 28th, 2009

This gentleman was bang on and put a complex situation into terms most can appreciate.

Article on Toronto Gold Show

Posted by Peter Grandich at 12:19 PM on Monday, September 28th, 2009

Read

Agoracom is suppose to post my interview with George along with video of some of my talks at the show so stay tuned.