Grandich's Blog

8 Responses to “Apella Resources Update”

1. Otis says:

   October 16, 2009 at 9:33 am

   Peter – Any truth to the rumor KMK management was asked to fly to China to meet with Chinese partner who has offered to do much higher pp if they cancel just announced one? My source says a $2.10 bid may be coming?
2. challie says:

   October 16, 2009 at 9:47 am

   Peter, While gold has no boundry and should be much higher, there is something in the air regarding the Dow. As a technician, the Dow has penetrated two strong resistances and is on its way to 11.5k with no problem. Should the Dow penetrate the last strong resistance at just below 12k, IMHO , we are in for a new roaring bull market, regardless of the doom and gloom we have listened to since the Dow fell to 6500 area. I have been buying since that time and now hold a comfortable lead, there is definitely something taking place which no one can identify, it’s like a new horizon, or may be the end of times but something similar to the origin of the universe. I see it but can’t quite focus it in. Please, i’m not daft, after seven decades, something is afoot.
3. NAKTOTENBUCKS says:

   October 16, 2009 at 9:52 am

   oh man…the responses should make for some interesting reading…lol
4. Ed says:

   October 16, 2009 at 9:55 am

   Bingo Otis!
5. gsh says:

   October 16, 2009 at 10:27 am

   In response to Challie, I posted the comments below on my blog ( http://zpring.blogspot.com/2009/10/dow-broke-10000-what-next.html) when the DOW broke 10,000. Like Peter, I believe there is some steam left but the fundamentals stink. If it reaches 12,000, the euphoria and exuberance will be quite extreme that my grandmother will be recommending me to buy stocks.

   ”

   The DOW broke 10,000 yesterday. The stock market has an incredible run since March this year.

   This brings back to the memories of the pre Asian Crisis in 1997, dotcom boom before 2000 and housing boom before 2007.

   Interestingly, the market is very similar to what I saw in 1997,2000 and 2007 before it broke down.

   There was a great run like now. Everything is well and good. The stimulus has done its job. Obama has saved the nation from a financial melt down. The worst is behind us.

   Don’t pay attention to the inconvenient truth of 9.8 % unemployment. It is a lagging indicator. Pay no attention to $12 trillion debts not counting obligations on pension and healthcare. If all obligations are included, total debt is $52.8 trillion. It is OK with the plan to have a deficit of > $1 trillion/year for the next 10 years as our good friend China will continue to buy our treasuries and support the ponzi financing. Declining income tax receipts, increased bankruptcy filings, increased bank closures, increased real estates foreclosures, depleting FDIC capital base to finance bank failure, declining dollar and increased commercial Real estates failures should all be ignored. Never mind that gold broke up recently which could be the canary of what is going to happen next – inflation and collapse of the dollar.

   Lets join the party and enjoy the bull while it is here. Even my grandmother is recommending me to buy stocks! Do not miss the recovery.

   This is fascinating. I am still riding the bull over the last few months but all my positions are FULLY hedged. I am clear about my secondary exits. Also, at the same time, I am maintaining some ITM / out in time bear calls, synthetic puts and reversed collars so that if the market breaks down, I can ride on it.

   Most probably the bull will continue for another few weeks or even months. The market can remain irrational longer than you are solvent. So do not fight the trend. If the Dow hits 11000, I will be very, very cautious. I will increase my downside hedge and positions.

   In the last 3 crises, I made a lot of money from the downside. I intend to do so similarly – this time with more finesse and conviction.

   Stock will not go straight up forever. Bubbles have a nasty habit of popping. If it breaks, it goes down real fast and messy.”
6. Klaus Willmann says:

   October 16, 2009 at 11:24 am

   Challie,

   I’ve been thinking some of the same things you have – except the origin of the universe stuff. Everything tells me this is much more than your garden-variety bear market rally. It “feels” a lot like 2003, where the market went up for a year before having a genuine correction, and then continued a cyclical bull for 3 more years.

   Why is this happening now? My best guess is that we are in the midst of a monstrous liquidity-driven rally. The super-easy, interest-free Fed money is finding its way into markets around the world. The US has become the center of the new carry trade. Furthermore, much of the world has been forced into easy money policies as well. If this is what’s going on, it could last right up until the Fed appears ready to lift its 0 interest rate policy. When that happens, all bets are off, methinks.
7. Gary says:

   October 16, 2009 at 2:19 pm

   gsh, when I tried to go to your blog site it came up saying the site did not exist.
8. gsh says:

   October 16, 2009 at 3:33 pm

   Gary, try http://www.zpring.blogspot.com and click on “Dow broke 10,000 – What next?