Markets are quite interesting at the moment. The inevitable stock market correction appears to have finally taken hold. A 5%-10% decline would be the least one would look for as of right now. I wouldn’t yet bet against the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd so I’m quite content on watching this unfold from the sidelines.
Gee, gold options expired today and what do you know gold fell $30+ the last three days. What a coincidence. I suspect we’ll see a bounce in gold followed by some selling to see if the bears can finally do some real damage. Based on their track record up until now, I wouldn’t break into a sweat if you’re long term bullish like me.
The U.S. Dollar is once again trying to get some sort of a counter-trend rally going but needs to get a close above 78 on the U.S. Dollar Index to do so. Even if it does, any rally looks like it should be capped below 84.
I remain neutral on oil and screaming bearish on 10yr. and higher U.S. Treasuries.
I’m going to put a buy again on NSU as this sharp correction from $3.40 just last week seems to have been enough of a correction. I paid up to $2.60 today and will use that as a buy limit.
I’m adding a new recommendation to my model portfolio. Buy East Asia Minerals (EAS-TSX-V $1.78) up to $1.85
Keep a $1.55 buy limit on KMK until further notice. There’s a lot more to this situation than meets the eye so be careful of what you assume is real information from people who may be playing with one or two hands tied behind their backs.
Peter, Re your purchase of Nevsun (NSU) at $2.60 on Alnet. What is Alnet and why do you buy there and not the TSX?
Hey Peter, I am a big fan of yours and I tell anyone with a reasonable sense knowledge about you and Agoracom.
I wanted to know if you by any chance follow a stock I have been watching which is EZ.V . I would love your thoughts on it if you have a moment.
Thanks
David S.
Hey Peter,
I know you have strong tie with the HD group….how about a little info an AHR (Amarc)….is it true that they may be onto a big find?
Hi Peter,
Can you or anyone else on this blog tell me why TBT hasn’t gone anywhere the last few months? Peter is ’screaming bearish’ on long term bonds and I totally agree with his rationale, yet not much is happening. Do we need to wait until interest rates start to go up? or is TBT foreshadowing a collapse in risk assets and a stampede into treasuries (albeit as a false sense of security and safety)?
Thanks for any ideas,
Daryl
Peter,
can you please comment in your next update if you are still on for the melt up (and if so when -1st Qtr?) or if we may have seen the peak for the Dow, thanks.
Great predictions in the last week (no glass in your diet recently!), thanks so much.
Jay i like your comments. especially in the last thread, very simple and to the point. like jay i wouldn’t mind your opinion on AHR as we seem to differ on when drill results will be coming out.
on another stock i noticed that Strathmore STM-TSX lost 11% today. peter i was wondering what u think of it at this level as i know u and HRA follow it.
o and one other. peter i remember u mentioning it at the summit in vancouver. but i was wondering if there is a price u are looking for as an entry point for Formation Capital FCO-TSX. i didnt see it in your model portfolio and i would like to get some cobalt exposure. thanks
China-Wire released this story on Oct 23
Zijin Mining to Allocate US$1 Bln for Overseas Acquisitions
Makes me think the reporter stated the wrong currency for 1 billion today.
interesting Richard that might be what peter means by “be careful of what you assume is real information.”
and this is for the crowd that is bashing peter calling NAK at $11-12. The last special update i remember was SGC at 40cents which peter recommended lightening up on a week ago over 70cents…and u wouldnt still be here if u thought his updates were useless.
Can’t believe anything you read…….
***********************************************************************
BEIJING, Oct 26, 2009 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) — ZIJMF | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating — Zijin Mining Group Co. (601899.SH) plans to spend up to CNY1 billion, or $146 million, for potential copper and gold mine acquisitions next year, a Zijin executive said Monday.
“We are planning for this, but we still need to find suitable candidates. The sum is merely an estimate of how much we are willing to spend if necessary,” the executive, who didn’t want to be named, told Dow Jones Newswires.
The company is seeking gold mines with reserves of more than 100 metric tons and copper mines with reserves of more than 1 million tons.
A local media report earlier incorrectly said the Zijin conglomerate was planning to allocate $1 billion for such potential purchases.
***********************************************************************
Anybody know the budget for this year…..
Agricultural plays – More folks are touting this sector given its failure to “partake” in the latest run up. Ways to play it are the ETFs like DBA (which Leibovit recently bought) RJA, MOO and other stocks like those mentioned in Ambrose Pritchard’s article, excerpts of which are below along with the link. Would love to know if anyone else is playing in this space.
Food Will Never Be So Cheap Again
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
“Wheat prices have tumbled 70pc since 2008 but demand is not going to go away
The world’s grain stocks have dropped from four to 2.6 months cover since 2000, despite two bumper harvests in North America. China’s inventories are at a 30-year low. Asian rice stocks are near danger level.
Yet farm commodities have largely missed out on Bernanke’s reflation rally in metals, oil, and everything else. Dylan Grice from Société Générale sees “bargain basement” prices.
Wheat has crashed 70pc from early 2008. Corn has halved. The “Ags” have mostly drifted sideways over the last six months. This divergence within the commodity family is untenable, given the bio-ethanol linkage to oil.
For investors wishing to rotate out of overstretched rallies – Wall Street’s Transport index and the Russell 2000 broke down last week – this is a rare chance to buy cheap into a story that will dominate the rest of our lives.
…….
You can trade the “Ag” rally by investing in exchange traded funds (ETFs), but this amounts to speculation on food. . . . Or you can invest in the bio-tech, fertiliser, and land services companies that will both make money and help to solve the problem. Monsanto, Syngenta, and Potash are popular, but trade at high price to book values. Golden Agri-Resources, Yara, Agrium, and Bunge are at better multiples.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/6432538/Food-will-never-be-so-cheap-again.html
Hey Peter,
Love the blog keep up the greeat work.
One quick question for Peter or anyone else to answer. When you quote your buy limits on stocks trading on the TSX is it in US dollars or Canadian dollars?
MAK
Daryl, re TBT I think that folks are not pouring into this yet as they are not sure what the government will do – and as they have shown us they can do alot with little. The Aden Sisters have suggested that everyone stand aside for right now anyhow. Specifically they say that…….”U.S. bond prices have been quietly moving upward since June, while pressure has been on long-term interest rates. This may be changing. If the 30 and 10 year yields stay above 4% and 3.30% respectively, a bottom in rates is most likely forming. A close above 4.37% and 3.55% would strengthen this scenario. Continue to stand aside.”
Another positive note on GOLD
What the “Man Who Made Too Much” Says About Gold
http://www.dailywealth.com/
jay i was wrong drill results should be out shortly for AHR.
i was chatting with the HD rep and im sure they are getting sick of me but it sounds like they are fairly optimistic about the drilling and it shouldn’t be long till we have news.
also their Heather Dale project will become public in november and the historic drill results on that property look exceptional.
Thanks Susan for your reply. I appreciate the time you took to write it. I have been following the blog for a few months now and can’t help but notice that you are extremely helpful and very respectful when you post.
Thanks for the info and take care.
Daryl, thank you! As i start my morning I log in to get your very kind note and it makes me smile……great way to start any day I must say!
China seems to take over the world (lol but not really). The article below with an excerpt and link, supports Peter’s and other views that KMK is likely to be taken over by the Chinese. Why not? They seem to be taking over everything else.
TOKYO (MarketWatch) — China’s building muscle in the commodities markets, aiming to expand its reach far and wide, from the metals mines of Canada and Australia to the oil fields of Venezuela and Brazil, as it works to secure supplies of natural resources for its growing population.
And while its efforts have hit a few roadblocks, China’s been broadly successful — effectively raising the competition bar for the rest of us.
China finds itself “in a situation where they’re projected to have big gains in demand for commodities, while the supply and production of many of those commodities is declining,” said Evan Smith, co-manager of U.S. Global Investors’ Global Resources Fund /quotes/comstock/10r!pspfx (PSPFX 8.42, +0.36, +4.47%).
The nation’s “cross-border deals not only increase their access to precious reserves, but also the likelihood these fields/mines will produce, given the additional capex the deals create.”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-muscles-deeper-into-global-commodity-markets-2009-10-30