I would like to follow-up to both my challenge and market comments made earlier today.
First and foremost, I continue to believe the U.S. Stock Market has been in a “mini melt-up” stage, albeit interrupted by a very short correction. I’ve spoken about DJIA 10,500+ for months. Make no mistake about it, I’m no long-term bull nor ever want to be part of the group that’s leading us to this area: the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on Wall Street. But, unlike the many bears who stayed bearish all this time, I was truly blessed to turn bullish (if that’s what one could call it) just one day from the bottom in March. My quest for 10,500+ since then has not been so I could be considered one of the card-carrying members of the “happy” crowd, but rather so we could get to a point where I could be comfortable turning aggressively bearish again. I continue to believe that point is somewhere between 10,500 and 11,000. I had thought we wouldn’t see that area until spring of 2010, but I don’t want to look a gift horse in the mouth if we get there sooner. Stay tuned.
It wasn’t that long ago when gold approached $1,000 and the media did its usual “one-day wonder” coverage. As so often happens, the media covers the habitually wrong bears who tell the world for the umpteen time that gold has peaked or worse, is very overpriced, only to see gold pull back and the media leave the scene until the next big run up is at its best. Such is the case yet again as gold has risen $70 just in days after it was supposed to die and go to bubble heaven.
And almost on cue, some in the media wheeled out their perma-bears that not only have amnesia regarding their past wrong forecasts, but suffer that terrible “Fonzie” disease (the inability to say I was wrong). Listen, I’m the first to admit when I’m wrong and I didn’t issue my challenge simply because the other party has been wrong and I’ve been right. I issued my challenge because the party is arrogant, bombastic and quite frankly extremely nasty to the parties who he not only disagrees with, but have greatly outperformed him for years. Former NFL coach Tony Dungy says his mother told him when he wins say little and when he losses to say even less. The fact that the other party IMHO has been terribly wrong for quite some time or has even distorted the facts is not the main reason for my challenge. It’s his ultimate gall to those who dare disagree with him in the face of his horrible performance.
Speaking of gold, we’re due for some consolidation and the sooner the better. The one factor that could really cause us to melt up would be the U.S. Dollar Index breaking below 74 in the near term. I would much prefer some consolidation and correction now versus later, but where it comes isn’t that important since the price over the long term appears still heading much higher.
On the model portfolio front, Continental Minerals is having a much needed consolidation. I continue to look for any real further weakness in Evolving Gold to become even a more aggressive accumulator.
Taking tomorrow off to enjoy some Indian summer on the links.
Mr. Grandich, congratulations on your excellent comments and recommendations. I hope you forgive my frankness, but I would rather have you leave Mr. Nadler aside and continue to focus on the outstanding job you do here. Ignore him, that is what he deserves. A big debate as you are proposing sounds like a big battle of egos and I truly believe you deserve better! Regards, Antonio
Peter,
You da man! A well deserved day for you tomorrow.
Thanks for doing what you do, distilling and dispensing the truth. You have been a great help in my life as an example of what I can aspire to.
Grandich is finally doing what many other should have a long time ago – show Nadler for the what he is and isn’t. Any one following both parties would know this is not Peter’s nature but the gutter is where Nadler has his most fun. Peter is defending the honor of his peers who have had to endure countless attacks by Nadler that go unanswered by the feeble media.
For the record, Nadler has ducked every chance to respond directly. He was to debate Bill Murphy and GATA and didn’t show up. He’s everything Peter accused him of and much, much more.
I commend Peter for caring about the honor of his friends and the innocent public who get taken by Nadler’s bad act.
Peter, to be perfectly honest with you, I was surprised Nadler was interviewed on BNN.
I though BNN knew better on who to pick, as Nadler has no credibility whatsoever. When I heard what he said on BNN I really wonder if he believe his own BS
Nadler’s M.O. will be to say some nasty things about Peter in his commentary, twist facts, post some garbage from someone who his shoveling his crap but never ever face Peter in a forum that millions could see him for what he really is GARBAGE!!!!
If Nadler shows up to debate Peter (he won’t), the debate will prove Peter is right and Nadler has been wrong consistently.
Funny, Nadler not showing up will prove the same thing.
Sooo, we already know what we need to know.
A debate, if it happens, will be little more than entertainment for readers of this blog.
forget Nadler … I may need help, or you might.
Brainwashed or Insane?
Have American’s lost it? Are there so few of them actually capable of thinking for themselves that they can not see the catastrophic position the government is placing its citizens?
Are they brainwashed to beleive that unlike any government (people in power)in history, they are uniquely benevolent.
Every government can be and has been benevolent when there is money available. That is not the case and all of the promises .. healthcare, medicare, social security will all be worthless without iron clad guarantees of indexxing to real inflation.
What likelihood is there of that .. they do not report real inflation, they do not report real unemployment … what is the basket of goods they ues for inflation … food and energy is not included … lol … they are too volatile roflmao.
Maybe it is me that is brainwashed into believing you have to work to make money, that you can’t spend more than you have, that debt is to be avoided except for a necessity like a house and then you should only purchase what you can easily afford.
Maybe I am brainwashed into believing that social structures breakdown when people have nothing and therefore nothing to lose. Maybe the USA is truly different .. that Nixon was not a crook, that countries in Central America exploited by US companies deserved their fate.
Heck maybe the healthiest of human specimens who survived being brought across on overcrowded, disease and plague infected sailing vessels that took weeks to arrive (if they made it) so they could be sold to plantation owners as free labour are so lucky because they got fed and now live in the land of opportunity where everyone lives happily ever after.
Maybe wiping out native American tribes and the buffalo was totally rational because those wealthy people who benefitted from all of these acts and whose families essentialy control the USA now would never betray today’s people.
Maybe I am just insane .. maybe all of us worry warts should join the party … loosen up and spend more than we have .. it will all be forgiven … won’t it?
the prophet
rob from calgary;
I am a small investor in solid developemnts.
I am more concerend about margins. I simply hope the rate of increase in the gold price rises faster than the cost to produce it (rate of change)
and that the rate of decrease in the gold price is slower than the rate of increase in the cost of production.
energy and infrastructure can be major costs, let’s manage marginal cost of production as best we can, that’s what interests me.
I like the debates because not only are they fun, they can be a learning experience
finally, let’s not forget, that western democracies and their leaders represent only a small % of world population, much of the rest of the world believes strongly in the value of metals.
Finally, rarety in gold relative to currencies is a good thing, if the price is allowed to float, up or down, rather than have a currency pegged to gold, we will have an improived understanding of the health of economic activity. I like the canary in a cold mine approach, it limits the amount of excuses a government can make for poor management of priorities.
Hugs and kisses to a peaceful world (wishful thinking)
RS
Dear Peter
We are all grateful to you and are distasted abt Mr. JN, esp. for his email abt you. However, there are always people like JN and we can’t always take them seriously. BNN needs to interview people like JN to maintain a balance of opinions eventhough it’s likely wrong (very much like a healthy person eating a balanced diet). JN maybe just a contrarian idicator. Well informed viewers should be able to see the difference.
Peter,
I agree with Antonio that small, nasty people like Nadler are best ignored. Anyone with any intelligence can clearly see how wrong he has been and how accurate you have been. Eventually he will quietly fade away. He’s really not worth anyone wasting time or energy on.
OrgProphet,
You are probably not brainwashed. You are probably not insane.
But we have documented proof that you have bouts of sheer lunacy…….
“Orgprophet says:
November 6, 2009 at 5:25 pm
I was but no longer am Obama fan ….”
thx Dan, but after 8 years of Bush (with Cheney who shoots his hunting buddy pulling the strings), and Sarah Palin a heartbeat away from seeing Portugal from Washington … lunacy happens.
the prophet
p.s. going to start watching soap operas to be a little more astute.
Peter,
Fighting back is very necessary, especially fighting with those indecent people with lots of advantages over small investors. Those people have been using their media exposures and influences to manipulate the stock and commodity prices, to achieve their maximal profit…
JN and DG are all smart guys, they have reasons to hate GOLD. DG hates gold so much (as he stated in CNBC, the reason is quite simple, the moment he opened his mouth,… he got crushed… so he hates it).
Peter, I love what you have done… This is street fight
Regards
Jim Rogers, Jim Sinclair, John Embry — like Peter, they have been consistently correct in their projections for gold. Somehow, I favor this proven body of opinion over that of No No Nadler.
OIL – IEA says oil usage will be up in 2010 and the future. This may be good for longer term oil bulls. See excerpt below.
Question: Do any of you Canadians (OR USers) hold some Canadian energy trusts like BTE, ERF, COS or PWE which currently have large monthly payouts and if so, your thoughts on them?
FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — Global energy use is set to fall this year, but it will soon resume its upward trend if government policies don’t change, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said in its World Energy Outlook released on Tuesday. In the IEA’s reference scenario, demand is projected to rise by 40% between now and 2030, reaching 16.8 billion tons of oil equivalent. While oil demand has dropped sharply, in the reference scenario it starts recovering in 2010, reaching 88 million barrels a day in 2015 and then 105 million barrels a day in 2030.
Gold info I think you gold buggers will find intersting. Short video link follows with jim rogers indicating he has not sold and will not sell his gold and will buy more on consolidation. There are several folks on this short video with the last guru saying that gold marches up to $1200 as smart big money are/will be buying gold. He must be talking about the folks on this blog!!
http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Rogers%2C%20Winmill%2C%20Kiener%2C%20Nageswaran%20Own%20Words%20on%20Gold&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vv2VVFUJRj_Q.asf
Peter your are quite famous on the Canadian Stockhouse board. I checked out KMK this am early and I think the whole board starts off with Peter Grandich. You may not be a legend in your own mind anymore but you certainly are becoming one in others!
Peter/ George/ Anyone- What has been the best play on Gold- Futures, Bullion, ETF, or Miners? And, so, what is the best play going forward?
Here is link to that blog Susan mentions…took me a while to locate so I figured I would post for anyone’s interest
sorry, here it is….http://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/SymbolList.aspx?s=KMK&t=LIST
Thanks Jim…I was not able to copy and paste it.
Is it still worth picking some more KMK up on yesterdays pull back? or have I missed the boat?
Susan, I`m into a trust fund that you might find interesting. It`s called Avenir Diversified Income Trust Fund.It pays 14.72% per annum. Stock symbol is AVF.UN.T
P.S. Susan, it`s on the Toronto board.
posted on the Synergy board by Ivanb
FCO News Release CONSOLIDATION 7-1
posted on Nov 09, 09 11:57PM
Vancouver, B.C., November 09, 2009, Formation Metals Inc. (formerly “Formation Capital Corporation”) (FCO-TSX)(the “Company”) announced today that, in preparation for commencing the finance phase of construction of the 100% owned Idaho Cobalt Project, the Company’s name has been changed to “Formation Metals Inc.” and all of its issued and fully paid common shares without par value have been consolidated on a 7 old for 1 new share basis. Upon the name change becoming effective for trading purposes on the TSX, the consolidated shares of the Company will continue to trade under the symbol “FCO”.
“Formation Metals more accurately reflects the coming changes in the Company as we move the Idaho Cobalt Project to production. The share consolidation provides the Company more flexibility to negotiate the best possible arrangements for financing the capital costs of the project”, stated said Mari-Ann Green, Chairman and CEO. “This is a new era for the Company and the new share structure will align the Company with a peer group of base metal produces.”
Letters of Transmittal will be sent advising that one (1) common share of Formation Metals Inc. will be issued in exchange for every seven (7) common shares of Formation Capital Corporation outstanding. No fractional shares will be issued. The Toronto Stock Exchange has conditionally approved the name change and consolidation and it is anticipated that the Company’s common shares will commence trading on the TSX on a consolidated basis under the name Formation Metals Inc. and stock symbol “FCO” on or about November 13, 2009.
Formation Metals Inc. is dedicated to the principles of environmentally sound mining and refining practices, and believes that environmental stewardship and mining can co-exist. The Company trades on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol FCO.
Formation Metals Inc.
“Mari-Ann Green”
Mari-Ann Green,
C.E.O.
Jay- Peter’s model portfolio says to buy KMK up to (or down to if declining) $1.65….$1.70 was low enough for me! picked up some more…at my own risk..
What should we make of this Formation consolidation?
Formation: it looks like they are consolidating the shares so that the dilute the consolidate new shares.So we go from 241 million shares to 34.4 million and then dilute. I think it can work for the benefit of the existing shareholders is it holds its new price. What does anyone else think?
Gartman Info – his shorting didn’t work: On my way back last night from a trip I heard Gartman on Bloomberg radio indicating that he had shorted the market last month and had to take his lumps by going neutral recently. He said you can’t fight the market. Maybe he should be checking this blog and he would have got it right!