Bill Murphy had this chart in his daily message today. It shows how the U.S. Dollar has been in a series of self-correcting oversold periods that have grown shorter each time. It’s interesting to note that the 50-Day M.A. has held almost the entire time. The dollar continues to be a key factor in most markets and nothing appears on the horizon that can change that.
P.S. By my non-scientific research, it’s Bill Murphy 100, Nadler 0 Who’s the crazy?
I find it ironic that Nadler makes the most fun of murphy and GATA yet they have been right for years on the price of gold and he hasn’t.
For sure, folks can find both trouble and comfort in a chart. How this chart should affect us, I’m uncertain. Then again, we have the lopsided sentiment figures on the U.S. Dollar and the huge short Commercial position on Gold.
How you choose to look at it is an individual decision. I’ll go with the clear breakout over the massive area of reaccumulation, and especially the dismal fundamentals supportive of Gold as ‘THE’ asset of choice for Capital preservation.
Just let me know if Nadler turns Bullish on Gold.
Peter et al,
Do you think there could be a reversal above the 50 day MA?
Bob Hoye in his 22nd Oct Pivotal Events message wrote “The Sequential Buy pattern is now being accomplished – in which case an important low for the DX could be set within three weeks. The opposite has been set on the euro and it is a couple of weeks overdue on its slump.”
Will gold hold? Will the Dow go down? How long – how far? What will be the key indicators – next employment stats?
There are good reasons for gold to go up and USD to go down but it seems a strong cross roads at this time for multiple markets.
Does anyone remember the name of the little known indicator Peter mentioned for the Dow back around March – something like Cockroft indicator? It signals new bull markets and was indicating a bull market forming on the Dow back around March. I couldn’t find it looking through the blog files.
Has anyone seen what this indicator is doing lately for Gold, USD and / or Dow?
Cheers.
Jair,
It’s called the Coppock curve and it gave a buy signal for the Dow back in June. I’m not sure it’s all that useful for trading, because it is such a long-term indicator. Haven’t done the calculations for gold, but I’m certain it has to be on a buy as well. Not sure it actually gives sell signals, so forget about the USD.
For the long term picture, I like to use the monthly MACD. For most markets, it’s been reasonably reliable for catching longer term trends. Right now, most markets including gold and the Dow are on a buy.
James Turk has something of interest to see and worthwile commentary
http://goldmoney.com/commentary.html
Peter,
The shorter correction periods prove nothing. If anything, they might point out that it’s time for a short-term breakout. In fact, judging from the volume of UUP (PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund) recently and its MACD divergence, I would think that the risk is for a US dollar breakout.
It’s obvious Lag you know little about real technical analysis. Peter made one of his usual keen observations. If you don’t know how correct he was and you weren’t there’s no sense bothering to explain it to you now.
India Buys HALF IMF’s 403 Tonnes
http://www.preciousmetalstockreview.com/downloads/India%20Buys%20HALF%20IMF%20403%20Tonnes%20pdf.pdf
Klaus, I was recently thinking of the Coppock Curve, but also couldn’t remember its name — Thank you.
As far as Murphy – Nadler go it isn’t 100 to 0, except from an extremist view. I read Nadler everyday for perspective and balance, ie. bulls v bears. I may have previously stated this, nevertheless, I hope this “cult of personality” rivalry doesn’t negatively impact Mr. Grandich’s very often spot on analysis. It’s a market determined by many factors and contemporaneously both will be right and both wrong. The trick is to be on the right side of the trade. Personally, I’m long, scale back, re-build positions, repeat…
Thanks Klaus,
I bet you didn’t even have to look it up, you da man! Good Will got an answer too. I was wondering if Coppock was going to show a false positive if there is another 5% drop in the Dow.
Speaking of MACD and gold price, does anyone else see the change from Aug to Sept, Sept to Oct, and Oct to Nov as bit spooky? If so tonight, or maybe tomorrow, or Friday at the latest is going to be a good night.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zvt3chGuU8I&feature=related
Liebovit has taken a short term trade in SH (US markets). This is the more conservative short with aggressive being SDS. He has gone with SH. Latest notice is that Warren Buffett just bought all of Burlington Northern (rail road). Did anyone notice that buy outs seem to be increasing with energy moving along – just heard of Encore being taken over yesterday.
Thanks Susan.
I purchased SRS wich in my opinion is more bullish than alot of the shorts out there.
Gold
Ryan