Agoracom Blog

Model Portfolio Updated. Comments on Some Clients.

Posted by Peter Grandich at 9:14 AM on Monday, November 2nd, 2009

It appears the long suffering gold bears have once again failed in yet another attempt to shake the market lower. While the media remains focus on receiving advice about the future from a few chronic bad forecasters from the past, gold appears like it has all but completed its latest consolidation and ready to challenge $1,100 before years-end. As I said all along – the surprises in gold should mostly be to the upside.

With this in mind, I updated the model portfolio this morning.

In regards to some clients of Grandich Publications:

Formation Capital (FCO-TSX) is so close to finalizing their mine developing package one could taste it. Stay tuned.

Sunridge Gold (SGC-TSX-V) management tells me they’re quite please with their on-going exploration program. The $.60 area appears to be a level those not yet believers can become one at an undervalued entry point.

Timmins Gold (TMM-TSX-V) is perhaps one of the most undervalued companies on my entire list.

13 Responses to “Model Portfolio Updated. Comments on Some Clients.”

  1. Kirk says:

    Here’s the bumbling idiot http://www.commodityonline.com/news/%E2%80%98Gold-rise-can%E2%80%99t-last-for-long-as-it%E2%80%99s-not-in-bull-market%E2%80%99-22543-2-1.html

    Peter is so right about Nadler being constantly wrong for years. I bet Nadler doesn’t want his comments made a year ago to the same people republished. Here it is http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-might-fall-to-$500s-Jon-Nadler-12397-3-1.html

    What a freaking idiot Nadler is!

  2. Roger says:

    I know people who are less invested in gold than they wish they were in part because of Nadler’s consistent pummeling of the very customers who indirectly pay his salary.

    He is right every time gold takes a pause, but insists it is going lower, which – it doesn’t.

    I’m still waiting for the $585 – $650 gold he was talking about not all that long ago. Please deliver on that one Jon… I’ve got some buying to do.

    Roger.

  3. Roger says:

    Did you get your free cash for clunkers golf cart yet? (I checked on snopes and truthorfiction and they had nothing on this)

    From Casey Research:

    Wall Street Journal excerpt:

    The federal credit provides from $4,200 to $5,500 for the purchase of an electric vehicle, and when it is combined with similar incentive plans in many states the tax credits can pay for nearly the entire cost of a golf cart. Even in states that don’t have their own tax rebate plans, the federal credit is generous enough to pay for half or even two-thirds of the average sticker price of a cart, which is typically in the range of $8,000 to $10,000. “The purchase of some models could be absolutely free,” Roger Gaddis of Ada Electric Cars in Oklahoma said earlier this year. “Is that about the coolest thing you’ve ever heard?”
    The golf-cart boom has followed an IRS ruling that golf carts qualify for the electric-car credit as long as they are also road worthy. These qualifying golf carts are essentially the same as normal golf carts save for adding some safety features, such as side and rearview mirrors and three-point seat belts. They typically can go 15 to 25 miles per hour.
    In South Carolina, sales of these carts have been soaring as dealerships alert customers to Uncle Sam’s giveaway. “The Golf Cart Man” in the Villages of Lady Lake, Florida is running a banner online ad that declares: “GET A FREE GOLF CART. Or make $2,000 doing absolutely nothing!”
    Golf Cart Man is referring to his offer in which you can buy the cart for $8,000, get a $5,300 tax credit off your 2009 income tax, lease it back for $100 a month for 27 months, at which point Golf Cart Man will buy back the cart for $2,000. “This means you own a free Golf Cart or made $2,000 cash doing absolutely nothing!!!” You can’t blame a guy for exploiting loopholes that Congress offers.
    The IRS has also ruled that there’s no limit to how many electric cars an individual can buy, so some enterprising profiteers are stocking up on multiple carts while the federal credit lasts, in order to resell them at a profit later. We should note that some states, such as Oklahoma, have caught on to the giveaway and are debating whether to cancel or limit their state credits. But in Congress they’re still on the driving range.

  4. Itho says:

    I can’t think of any two people who have been more opposite in terms of performance when it comes to gold then Grandich and Nadler. Can anyone point to a forecast of Grandich’s on gold that ended up wrong in the last month, year, 5 years? Can anyone point to the same regarding Nadler being right?

    Yet Nadler constantly attacks anyone who dare disagree with him and Kitco removes all posts on their forum that dare say anything negative about Nadler.

    Nadler is a jackass

  5. Bruce says:

    I think Nadler’s column title today is perfect for him – “Will Work For Less” He is without a doubt the biggest jerk in the metals industry. Despite being wrong for years, he never once admitted his errors. Instead he attacks the very people who have left him in the dust – gold dust that is jerk!

  6. Ryan M says:

    haha well this has certainly turned into a Nadler bash today:) On another note though once every one is done venting….i was wondering Peter’s and any one elses opinion on Puget Ventures (TSXV: PVS) which looks like the same thing as FCO but instead in Canada and a little further back as they havnt pulled drills yet. thanks have a good day every one.

  7. Tony says:

    Nadler says in the article that gold and the US$ are correlated -0.27 since 1971, whereas I believe Peter has stated in the past the correlation is much higher at -0.85. Given that gold was $35 an ounce in 1971 and a dollar had much more buying power, that’s another reason to add credibility to the Nadler-doesn’t-have-his-facts camp.

  8. chris ruel says:

    tko/tgb nr/prosperity

    Taseko Announces a New 7.7 Million Oz Gold and 3.6 Billion Lb Copper Reserve at Prosperity
    Taseko Mines Limited TKO
    11/2/2009 2:30:00 PM
    VANCOUVER, Nov. 2, 2009 (Canada NewsWire via COMTEX News Network) –

    Taseko Mines Limited (TSX: TKO; NYSE Amex: TGB) (”Taseko” or the “Company”) is pleased to announce a 70% increase in mineral reserves at its 100% owned Prosperity Project, from 487 million tonnes to 830 million tonnes.

    The reserve increase will add 3.0 million ounces of recoverable gold and 1.6 billion lbs of recoverable copper to the Prosperity reserve base, bringing total recoverable metal to 7.7 million ounces of gold and 3.6 billion lbs of copper.

    This increase in recoverable metal, under present mine design criteria, extends Prosperity’s mine life from 20 years to 33 years.

    Reserves were previously based on a $5.25 Net Smelter Return (”NSR”) cut-off using gold and copper prices of $500/oz and $1.50/lb, respectively. Current reserves are based on a $5.50 NSR cut-off using gold and copper prices of $650/oz and $1.65/lb, respectively.

    Russell Hallbauer, President and CEO of Taseko commented, “In keeping with our historically conservative approach to reserve calculations, we have modestly adjusted our gold and copper price assumptions to better reflect longer-term metal price expectations. This increase in metal price assumptions will allow us to mine deeper, higher grade mineralization.

    Prosperity now has the largest gold/copper reserve base of any mining project in Canada. At present gold and copper prices the projected operating costs per ounce of gold, net of copper credit, will be negative US$330/oz. With the size of this reserve and the longevity of its mine life, Prosperity will be one of the great mines of Canada. The 64% increase in recoverable gold and 80% increase in recoverable copper will allow Prosperity to operate for over 3 decades.

    We look forward to the upcoming completion of our Environmental Assessment Review and getting on with building a mine that can benefit so many local, provincial and national stakeholders.”

    <>

    Remaining measured and indicated resources are grading 0.40 g/t gold and 0.30% copper containing 2.3 million ounces of gold and 1.2 billion lbs of copper (no recoveries applied).

    The mineral resource and reserve estimations were completed by Taseko staff under the supervision of Scott Jones, P.Eng., Vice-President, Engineering and a Qualified Person under National Instrument 43-101. Mr Jones has verified the methods used to determine grade and tonnage in the geological model, reviewed the long range mine plan, and directed the updated economic evaluation. The estimates for the reserves used long term metal prices of US$1.65/lb for copper and US$650/oz for gold and a foreign exchange of C$0.82 per US dollar. Mr Jones has reviewed this release. A technical report will be filed on http://www.sedar.com.

    <>

    Forward Looking Statements

    This release includes certain statements that may be deemed “forward-looking statements”. All statements in this release, other than statements of historical facts, that address future production, reserve potential, exploration drilling, exploitation activities and events or developments that the Company expects are forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements include capital market conditions, commodities market prices, exploitation and exploration successes, lack of continuity of mineralization, continued availability of capital and financing, the ability to obtain and maintain required permits, including environmental, construction and mining permits and general economic, market or business conditions. Investors are cautioned that any such statements are not guarantees of future performance and that actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. For more information on the Company, Investors should review the Company’s annual Form 40-F filing with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission or the Company’s home jurisdiction filings at http://www.sedar.com.

    SOURCE: Taseko Mines Limited

    on Taseko, please see the Company’s website http://www.tasekomines.com or contact: Brian Bergot, Investor Relations — (778) 373-4545, toll free 1-800-667-2114
    Copyright (C) 2009 CNW Group. All rights reserved.

  9. darwin says:

    As of about 2:30 EST. gold is at about $1057 or only 1.3% down from it’s Oct 14 high of $1070.70, but the XAU is only at about 157.00 or 13.2% down from the Oct 14 high of 180.93. Both gold and XAU are up about 3.0% from intra-day lows last week. It’s a little troubling that the stocks are not rebounding as much as bullion itself since the stocks usually tend to move in advance and by greater percentage than that of gold itself. Thoughts anyone?

  10. darwin says:

    It seems the time stamp on the blog has not been adjusted 1 hour back to Standard Time!!

  11. detour dujour says:

    Peter Grandich says:
    “Timmins Gold (TMM-TSX-V) is perhaps one of the most undervalued companies on my entire list.”

    It is also one of the most inconspicuous, as I can find it nowhere in your Model Portfolio. To what “list” are you referring?

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