I updated model portfolio recommendations. Please note I extended the buy zone on Continental Minerals. The trading pattern continues to suggest heavy accumulation. We now have two business competitors who appear not to like each other and both apparently need what KMK has. I think a $3+ share price is what it would take to get management’s support of a friendly bid. Stay tuned!
The more I look at metal prices and Bisha, the more I love Nevsun Resources. Given what metal prices have done of late, I think $3 or under is relatively cheap for NSU shares. Great Basin Gold remains quite cheap given the big bump up in gold prices.
Friday’s employment number is almost certainly IMHO the key to what the U.S. stock market does for the balance of the year. Any real indication that unemployment is easing should give the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd the ammunition to resume it’s march towards DJIA 10,500+. On the other hand (I never like to hedge but it’s the right choice at the moment), a surprise bump up in unemployment should remove whatever hot air remains under the market and lead to a sharper decline. Friday is key!
The floor I spoke of in gold at four digits is now in. Numerous so-called experts, money managers, investors, etc., were either outright bearish, turned bearish or became weak kneed and looked for a correction when gold was around $1,000. They never got a chance to get back in and now the market has gotten away from them. The natural tendency is to try and talk the gold price back so you can justify not chasing to get back in but that has not been a worthy approach for years in gold. The bears have a gigantic problem. Sorry but I won’t lose any sleep over the anti-gold getting their just dessert.
The U.S. Dollar continues to be long on anticipation of a bear market rally but way short on delivering on it. Again, it needs to get above 78 on the U.S. Dollar Index before we change even our short-term outlook.
I still hope to see oil at $85+ in hopes of getting short again. Natural gas is ho-hum.
I continue to like shorting U.S. Treasuries 10 and 30-yr maturities.
Off to Toronto for BNN tomorrow then Montreal Investment Conference.
Good news for NY Jets fans. They can’t lose this Sunday. Wish I could say the same for NY Giants.
Yankees clinch World Series tonight!
Wires this AM have AUY taking a 59% derivative hit. Would you care to comment on this portfolio holding?
Great work Peter!!
Tmm-V – Timmins is flying – watch it go!!
Thanks for the update, Peter.
I was expecting a comment on EVG considering the halt on news of the bought deal.
why should Petey comment on evg? It doesn’t change a thing. Hello KMK!
If there was even an ounce of doubt Jon Nadler is the biggest loser in the metals arena, it would surely be removed after reading his dribble today. I see that article comparing him to Andy Smith. At least Andy finally had the guts to admit how wrong he was before leaving the scene. Nadler defies decency and tries to suggest that he’s right and the market is wrong. What a fool and any follower is even a bigger one.
If unemployment shows any kind of an increase what will that do to the juniors
well i was hoping for a correction in TTM today so i could get in…..scratch that idea. good on every one that bought on peters que. i wont miss the KMK train though and ill double up on it after Friday if we get some good news(if its still in a buy. hope every one is having an enjoyable morning:)
Thanks Peter for the update and your comments on the unemployment number’s relevance – Friday’s a date!
All that’s left is to find my crystal ball…. plus mouthguard!
Sorry for anyone who tried that the link in my last comment didn’t work properly, if you cut and paste the url after you’re already in chartworks then it’s ok.
im beginning to wonder about 1100 gold today. that might get thrown all over the media wouldnt it.
I had lost over half my wealth thanks to horrible financial advisers before I was led to this blog this time last year. Thanks to Mr. Grandich and my decision to follow all he said when he said it, I have made up all my losses and have nearly tripled my money.
A big check to your favorite charity awaits you Mr. Grandich. I sent you an email asking who you like me to send it to.
Very nice to note your success with Peter Delia. It cracks me up when the peanut gallery comes here and takes a shot at Peter’s advice, end up being wrong only to never be heard from again. The good news for them Peter will be wrong on something but for people like you and me Delia, thankfully not often
Rolled out of 15K NAK at $7.25 avg. earlier this morning. I expect to sell the remaining 10K of my 25K rolling block at $7.25 avg. by the end of the day today to complete my 40 cent roll for $10K profit in just over 1 weeks time. Amazing how easy this game is at times…”like taking candy from a baby”
Commercial Shorts On Gold & Silver – AN INVALID INDICATOR
If there were really an equity interest in the Commercial Short position on the Comex for Gold & Silver, the holders should be scrambling to cover.
Last week showed a further rise in the Commercial Short position for Gold, and we know that these are banks that are short probably for government accounts.
So perhaps all along, the Commercial short position has been thought of as a ‘Sentiment Indicator’. That could be misleading because the government will short whenever they want the price of Gold to be contained.
Therefore, the Commercial Short position on the Comex should be viewed as government policy / strategy and is not a sentiment indicator. It should be disregarded for predictive purposes in my opinion.
re tmm
Mexico: Gold’s Next Powerhouse Player
Marc Davis
BNW Business News Wire
Posted Nov 4, 2009
As the world’s key gold producing nations struggle mostly in vain to replenish dwindling below-ground supplies, Mexico is bucking the trend in a big way.
That’s right. It’s not a typo. We are indeed talking about gold, not silver.
Even factoring-in the world’s other emerging gold producing nations, Mexico still stands head and shoulders above the crowd. In fact, only Mexico has experienced impressive year-on-year production growth over the last decade. This has culminated in an almost doubling of output since 1998 to 1.59 million ounces last year. No other nation comes close to matching such a promising statistic.
It is worth noting that global gold output hit an all-time high of 68.83 million ounces in 1999. Yet, worldwide production last year represented an almost 20% shortfall at 55.30 million ounces, which clearly illustrates a troubling trend. The situation has been exacerbated by the fact that the world’s top trio of gold producers – South Africa, the US, and Australia – are losing their luster. In fact, they have seen their combined output slump even more precipitously than elsewhere over the last decade. Dropping from 35.12 million ounces to 21.66 million ounces in 2008, this amounts to a 62% slide.
This is all the more problematic for the mining industry when considering the fact that gold prices have more than tripled over the last decade. This represents a decline in revenues of around US $14 billion dollars (based on current bullion spot prices).
Yet, there’s nothing but ‘blue sky’ upside for Mexico’s ever-expanding gold mining industry. Especially since only about 15% of this mining-friendly, geologically fertile nation has ever been systematically explored for the yellow metal. This is largely because the country’s foreign investment laws were prohibitively restrictive for centuries until it signed the North American Free Trade Agreement in the early 1990s. Only then did Mexico finally adopt transparent mining legislation that offers a level playing field to foreign investors, which is also sweetened with plenty of business incentives, such as a very competitive corporate tax structure.
This pivotal development ushered in a modern-day Gold Rush that now involves over 250 mostly Canadian foreign companies with at least 600 projects underway – the vast majority of which were financed on Toronto’s two mining-oriented stock exchanges. And, at least US $6.5 billion dollars in mining investment has poured into Mexico in 2008-09, alone.
Further reinforcing Mexico’s ascendancy to the prestigious ranks of the world’s leading gold producers is the fact that 2010 promises to be a banner year. (Figures for 2009 are obviously not yet available but are expected to reveal yet another boost over the year before, albeit a modest one). In fact, output is expected to jump by an additional 860,000 ounces next year, representing a 54% increase over 2008’s figure.
However, it must be noted that Mexico is by no means one of the most prolific producers in the world – at least not yet. Its output in 2008 was eclipsed by the world’s top three producers, as well as Peru, which earned fourth place at 5.78 million ounces.
Mexico’s production last year was also still well below Canada (3.04 million ounces) and Ghana (2.58 million ounces). It is now jostling for position a short distance behind with only about half a dozen other emerging gold producing nations – all of whom have more or less comparable production numbers. Yet, while Mexico’s annual output is accelerating, the other players are showing signs of fatigue, as demonstrated by their mostly unvarying year-on-year output figures or by numbers that are clearly falling off the pace.
So how is Mexico managing to reinvent itself as a high-octane gold producer after being so synonymous with silver mining for the past five centuries? Well, a number of North America’s high-flying gold producers and legions of junior gold explorers are increasingly viewing Mexico as the optimum mining jurisdiction to do business. So says Jeffrey Christian, Managing Director of the New York-based CPM Group, a leading commodities research, consulting, asset management and investment banking organization.
“Mexico represents one of the most attractive places in the world for mining, not only in terms of geology but also for its political, economic and regulatory environment. There is also a pro-mining mentality in Mexico. The country is very much open for business,” Christian says. “Also many good quality deposits have gone relatively unexploited over the centuries.”
Conversely, an increasing number of other emerging gold-producing nations are beginning to raise barriers to the building of mines by foreign mining companies. In extreme cases, this involves the nationalization of rich mineral finds that have been developed by well-financed North American mining companies, Christian adds. Ironically, these protectionist regimes include underdeveloped economies that have benefited from an increase in gold output in recent years thanks to the influx of North American investment dollars.
North American mining companies are not having much better luck on their own soil, he says. “Even in the United States and Canada the barriers to obtaining mine production permits have become greater and greater,” Christian says. For instance, “anti-mining groups” can use the legal system to win a succession of court injunctions, which may delay the commissioning of a mine for years on end, he explains.
Hence, an increasing number of frustrated mining companies are turning their attention to Mexico, where they are mostly developing large silver deposits – ones where gold and base metals constitute meaningful by-products. But low-cost, near-surface primary gold deposits are also being targeted – some of which are under-developed past producers that historically suffered from a lack of investment capital.
Perhaps the best example of how this strategy is paying off in a big way involves the world’s fifth largest gold producer, Vancouver-based Goldcorp Inc. (NYSE: GG) (TSX: G), which just initiated production at its world-class gold/silver Penasquito mine in Zacatecas Statein October. The mine hosts at least 13 million ounces of gold and is scheduled to start yielding up to 500,000 ounces of gold per year in 2010.
Meanwhile,Vancouver-based Timmins Gold Corp. (TSX.V: TMM) is scheduled before the year’s end to become Mexico’s next primary gold producer. One of only several junior mining companies to date to earn this distinction, Timmins Gold just announced a US $15 million debt financing to commercialize its open-pit (low cost) San Francisco mine, which is situated near the US border in Sonora State. The company is on target to produce up to 100,000 gold ounces a year.
Company President Bruce Bragagnolo says Mexico is an ideal mining jurisdiction to work in, especially due to its streamlined mine permitting process. This is illustrated by the fact that his company will have gone from a standing start to pouring its first gold bar in three short years.(This is approximately half the time it typically takes to clear all the legal and political hurdles involved in developing a gold mine in North America).
“It’s been a relatively easy process from a mine permitting standpoint,” Bragagnolo explains. “Also the local government and the local population are on-side as we’re in an underdeveloped area that needs jobs. Additionally, there’s great infrastructure in place, we can even work year-round.”
“We’re also benefiting from low capital costs and we’re going to be producing as inexpensively as around $400 an ounce,” he adds.
Unlike various other junior gold miners that also aspire to become mid-tier producers, Timmins Gold has no intention of diversifying into projects elsewhere in the world, according to Bragagnolo.
“We have all the right dynamics right here in Mexico for us to grow into a much bigger company by way of organic growth and through property acquisitions,” he says. “In the near-term, we have excellent exploration potential around the mine. So our immediate goal is to double our reserve base and therby double the mine life.”
Meanwhile Toronto-based Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE: AEM) (TSX: AEM) is also set to begin full-scale production at its Pinos Altos gold/silver mine in the coming weeks. The mine is expected to generate 190,000 ounces of gold a year. Moreover, Idaho-based Coeur d’Alene (NYSE: CDE) (TSX: CDM) is aiming to produce 72,000 ounces a year from its new Palmerejo gold/silver mine, which was commissioned last spring.
Marc Davis
BNW Business News Wire
EAS is haveing quite the day up 15%….assuming it can hold out till close. Any one know why this is?
Ryan,
Probably no reason. When a sector gets hot, all kinds of small caps seem to pop up randomly. Right now, and probably for the next couple of months, there could be lots of PM juniors doing this on a regular basis. Enjoy it while it lasts. Take a little profit from the ones that pop, and be prepared to get out when it stops working.
Ryan M,
gold’s $1097.70 … we might find out, and buy stops may be set off and then http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kgsOdKEB2Yg&feature=fvw
Congrats NAKTOTENBUCKS, it’s Christmas come early.
Good perspective SGGroup, I like it. Your wave analysis is usually very interesting, what are the waves saying to you at the moment? Do my / Peter’s predicitons fit with wave theory? Your expectations for the short term high in gold then?
Good find Chris on TMM comments. These guys can earn ten cents a share stock is a no brainer here
Peter, not so fast. The Phillies aren’t out of it!
Sorry Peter have to disagree with the Yanks winning tonight
Great article by John Embry of Sprott entitled “Con job in the financial markets continues”
http://www.sprott.com/Docs/InvestorsDigest/2009/10_23_2009%20Con%20job%20in%20the%20financial%20markets%20continues.pdf
I found this interesting, 3 months ago Jim Sinclair called for a crisis in confidence in the dollar during this week
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zeMXPwiyeE
That would coincide nicely with what Peter put about the mini melt up and what I’m hoping for. Friday’s the day.
I sure hope Mr. Grandich will comment on NDM / Nak on BNN tomorrow.
I have been holding this thing for three or four years now and I am tired of looking at it. Also considering Hunter Dickenson themselves said they were expecting a major financial announcement THIS YEAR.
I am hoping for a nice Christmas present soon.
China Daily reports:
Stocks of China’s gold miners reached their daily limit soon after the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses resumed trading on Friday, fuelled by record prices for the precious metal.
Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Gold and Shandong Gold rose the maximum permitted 10 percent after the market opened after the eight-day National Day holiday, quickly followed by gold retailer Lao Fengxiang.
Zijin Mining’s shares were also boosted by its announcement that it was acquiring Canadian Continental Minerals Corporation, which, according to the company, could increase the miner’s gold and copper reserves.
Chinese investors’ fervor for gold is in line with hikes in global prices for gold during the past week.
“The fervor is a catch-up in the buoyancy on the global gold market while trading was suspended for China’s National Day holiday,” said Yu Zuojie, a market strategist at Shanghai Securities.
Spot gold hit a record high of $1,061.20 an ounce on Thursday following three days of consecutive hikes.
that’s interesting about kmk…arnt they in a biding war? i didnt think that Zijin Mining had already secured kmk. i would rather a fight to drive the bid up. when are they acquiring? good find though jay.
My favorite sentiment indicator (AAII), shows a large plunge in bullishness among individual investors. This is positive for the overall market. It’s possible our correction may already be over. Friday 13th would have been more fun as the last day of the correction, but it’s still setting up as a strong market at least until January. Don’t know what’s in that jobs report, but I think they’ll find a way to make it look positive.
Ryan…no idea…just thought it was an interesting article for all to read.
Here’s what Bill Murphy said last night about Jon Nadler
He bad, but not as bad as the perennial Moron of the Year, dingbat Jon Nadler of Kitco, who is the dumbest professional I have ever come across. He continually mocks us perma-bulls who have been right for nine years, while this nincompoop perma-bear has been wrong for as long as I can recall. However, his dopey, squirming commentary is delightful comic relief in the mornings … like today…
“What follows is a round-up of quotes and comments on the status quo and the possible future, as interpreted by a wide range of observers within the industry. No, it is not a regurgitation of perma-bull hype. That propaganda is very easy to locate. Much of the perspective is completely shared with our steadfast and long-standing view that this market is utterly disconnected from its fundamentals, and that the nature of the game has been fund-defined, and based on a dollar carry (and possibly misplaced expectations which will unwind, just as the yen carry did, not that long ago. You are familiar with the results. We call them the ‘economic crisis of 2008.”
Propaganda? Market disconnected from its fundamentals? The guy is a veritable mental midget. The fundamentals, as expressed in this column for years by many in the GATA camp, are as bullish as any market in history, which is WHY the price keeps going up and up, despite the antics of The Gold Cartel. When is Bart Kitner going to give that asinine lightweight the hook?
well i certainly hope that news is good friday and we start a met up into january. im keeping some cash on the side though until we are through friday just encase though. but i was listening to BNN the other day and the rate of job loss has been getting better for over a quarter now (they do it month to month). so maybe this is a leading indicator but i wouldnt doubt that like klaus said….they will turn even garbage results into gold.
Cam,
You and me both on NAK. Tired of looking at, tired of hearing about all the promise and potential only the see the stock frozen in a fairly small trading range.
Anyone follow Dynasty Metals & Mining? Up big today.
Roger.
When do you expect additional news on ER-Eastmain , from their current drilling program.
Do you see much movement on HGC-Hawthorne share price in the near future.
Are their additional drilling results fothcoming.
NAK News (yawn…but hey, it’s still news):
Pebble Fund Provides Second Round of Grants to Bristol Bay Community Groups
8:30a ET November 5, 2009 (PR NewsWire)
Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd. (”Northern Dynasty” or the “Company”) (TSX: NDM; NYSE Amex: NAK) announces that the Pebble Fund for Sustainable Bristol Bay Fisheries and Communities (”Pebble Fund”), a community investment fund established by the Pebble Limited Partnership (”PLP” or “Pebble Partnership”) in 2008, has distributed nearly $600,000 in grants to 18 nonprofit groups, school districts, youth projects, village and tribal council recipients in southwest Alaska this fall.
The second cycle of Pebble Fund grants follows a $1 million contribution made to 33 non-profit recipients in March 2009. It is estimated that grant monies provided through the Pebble Fund have leveraged nearly $10 million in additional funding to support community development projects throughout the Bristol Bay region.
“The Pebble Fund presents the Pebble Partnership with an effective means of working with local communities to strategically invest in projects that demonstrably improve socioeconomic opportunities and quality of life in southwest Alaska,” said Ron Thiessen, President & CEO of Northern Dynasty. “Northern Dynasty is very pleased with both the quality of community initiatives funded and the decisions taken by the Pebble Fund advisory board in selecting 18 recipients from a worthy field of applicants.”
The Pebble Fund is administered by the non-profit Alaska Community Foundation, with grant criteria and successful recipients determined by an independent advisory board of citizens representing communities from throughout the Bristol Bay region. Awards fall into four primary categories: renewable resources/fish; energy; education; and community and economic development.
Some of the projects receiving funding during the fall 2009 cycle of Pebble Fund grants include: the second phase of a Bristol Bay Elders Action Group Community Food Bank project to enhance dry goods storage and distribution of traditional foods; a project to increase access to safe drinking water and improve public health in the City of Nondalton; an economic development project of the Pilot Point Tribal Council to support local fishermen through the purchase of a dock crane for the Dago Creek Dock; among others.
The Pebble Fund was established in February 2008 as a five-year, $5 million commitment to support community-led initiatives that enhance the health of Bristol Bay fisheries and contribute to a sustainable economic future in southwest Alaska. The third cycle of Pebble Fund grants will be awarded next spring.
“The Pebble Partnership made a commitment to help the people of Bristol Bay before we even have a project, and adopted that commitment as a core principal in how we will operate,” said Pebble Partnership CEO John Shively. “Through the Pebble Fund we are meeting that commitment and we look forward to the work they will undertake during the next grant cycle in the spring.”
Based in Anchorage, Alaska, the Pebble Partnership was established in July 2007 as a 50:50 partnership between a wholly-owned affiliate of Northern Dynasty and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Anglo American plc. To retain its 50% interest, Anglo American is required to continue its staged investment of $1.425 to $1.5 billion to advance the Pebble Project towards permitting and operations.
Northern Dynasty is a mineral development company, based in Vancouver, Canada. Its principal assets are a 50% interest in the Pebble copper-gold-molybdenum deposit in southwest Alaska, 153 square miles of associated resource lands, as well as a partnership funding agreement with Anglo American. Pebble is the most important undeveloped porphyry deposit in the United States, and possesses the grades and size to support a modern, long-life mine.
NAKTOTENBUCKS are you waiting for another pullback to <$6.80 to roll in again??
Peter- you mention buy ranges on many stocks, including NAK, do you have a sell range as well to know when we have hit a max potentialto avoid succombing to a big fallback?
Tomorrow’s Jobs Report
The government is projected to report that payrolls fell by 175,000 workers last month, according to the median of estimates in a Bloomberg News survey before tomorrow’s Labor Department report. The jobless rate probably climbed to 9.9 percent, the highest since 1983, according to the survey.
What do people hear on the blog think the number will be?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aN0r7hTU6VAE&pos=5
does this signal tomorrow job report would be better?
probably about right, alot of retail outlets are beginning to hire people for holidays….so I would expect above 10% coming in January after layoffs, realization inventories are replenished…
Natural Gas: is ho-hum. Am considering buying UNG. Will have a stop loss in affect. Idea’s would be apreciated.
Is at $9.74.Low was back sept 3rd at $8.94. Wonder if Grandich still thinks the low is in. His call on waiting for a pull back sure was right. Thanks Peter.
Ryan
kmk: I wonder if Peter is going to raise the range. It has been ona tear for the past week. it hit $1.87 so far today
Employment will appear to be up only because student workers are back in school so companies were hiring during Oct. Next month unemployment will be up.
Jim – Unfortunately, I was only able to roll out of 15K NAK at $7.25 yesterday morning. Therefore, I will either roll out of the remaining 10K block at $7.25 or reload the 15K block at under $6.85. I would prefer to roll out first…but either way is fine by me!
Coach23,
I agree with Peter on nat. gas – ho hum. Don’t think UNG is a bad bet right now, but I think you’ll get better bang for buck in PM, energy and technology stocks – at least for the next few months. While anything is possible, I think nat gas is a rouge – one of the few things that may not participate in a possible market melt up.
I see that Jay Taylor on his latest missive today, is saying that odds are very high that catastrophic C wave down has already started. Catastrophic meaning, of course, that the stock market will go down much further than the March lows: http://64.26.31.193:83/blog/the-odds-are-very-high-that-catastrophic-c-down-has-started/
A consolidation could certainly be in the cards, but I have a problem with that particular scenario from Taylor and all his buddies at Elliott Wave. On another note, Peter, good job on the BNN interview, you’re looking pretty dapper.
Can anyone post a BNN link of today Pter interview?
Thanks
Army, I’m quite sure Peter will do that as soon as he can. It always takes a little time between when the interview takes place, and when BNN actually puts the interview on their website. Living in Canada gives me the luxury of seeing it live, perhaps you do not. In any event and once again, it will be on the blog soon…..trust me!
Army, Go to http://www.robtv.ca then click on market call. This is BNN.
Jay Taylor I agree has been negative on the stock market having got burned badly on last meltdown and many of his followers have lost out on this latest gold rise unfortunately. (Must admit he has made me think twice too).
Aden Sisters came out with an update last night. For those who may not be familiar with them, they are thought of as great technicians and are well respected by many. Summary of points follow:
* News that India bought the IMF sale (which was 1/2 of what IMF indicated it would sell this year) at these high prices is incredibly bullish
* Gold’s key indicator has not yet reached the “termporarily too high area” so it is not yet overbought and current rise likely headed higher
* Next target for gold is $1200 and looking more realistic (Bud Conrad from Casey came out too today and said $1200 was the next target)
* Hold on for now to gold and silver mining shares although may be selling them before they sell the gold itself. Gold is now stronger than silver and gold mining shares so buy the metal (GLD)
* US dollar index turned down on Wed. and long term interest rates surged
* Starting to look like a top may be forming in the stock market but still keep your positions at this time.
Susan
Ps. Great information sharing here – picked up lots of good info…thanks all!
Thanks Klaus Willmann
I was wondering what Peter ment by that.
Did today’s Job numbers point where were headed for the rest of the year?
Unemployment in U.S. Jumps to 10.2%, Payrolls Fall (Update3)
Payrolls fell by 190,000 workers last month, compared with a 175,000 drop anticipated by the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington. The jobless rate gained from 9.8 percent in September and exceeded 10 percent for the first time since 1983.
Stocks slid and Treasury notes gained on concern the emerging economic recovery will cool as American consumers retrench. Fed policy makers this week said the economy will probably “remain weak for a time” and reiterated a pledge to keep borrowing costs low for an “extended period.”
“We will certainly have very bad payroll numbers in November and December,” said Harm Bandholz, an economist at UniCredit Global Research in New York who accurately forecast the size of the drop in payrolls. “We don’t foresee businesses going on a hiring spree anytime soon.”
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index fell 0.4 percent to 1,062.08 at 9:35 a.m. in New York. Treasuries rose, pushing the yield on the 10-year note down to 3.5 percent from 3.53 percent yesterday..
Take a little profit and be prepared to get out when it stops working.
Great article and thanks for sharing here.
Further reading of this article. This jumped out at me.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aM5vmVlHcV6A&pos=1
..Payrolls Forecast
Payrolls were forecast to drop 175,000 after an initially reported 263,000 decline for September, according to the median estimate of 84 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from decreases of 250,000 to 105,000.
The jobless rate was projected to rise to 9.9 percent. Forecasts ranged from 9.8 percent to 10.1 percent.
Monthly losses accelerated after the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September 2008 and peaked at 741,000 in January.
Today’s report showed factory payrolls dropped 61,000 after decreasing 45,000 in the prior month. The median forecast by economists called for a drop of 42,000. The decline included a gain of 4,600 jobs in auto manufacturing and parts industries.
Sales of cars and light trucks rebounded last month after plunging in the wake of the government’s so-called cash-for- clunkers incentive plan. Vehicles sold at a 10.5 million annual pace in October, up from a 9.2 million rate in September.
Payrolls at builders declined 62,000 after a loss of 68,000 in September. Financial firms cut payrolls by 8,000, after 9,000 reductions the prior month.
Banks, Insurance
Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, subtracted 61,000 workers after cuts of 105,000 the prior month. Retail payrolls decreased by 39,800 after a decline of 44,200.
Government payrolls were unchanged from the prior month, the report showed.