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Update 1100:AM DST

Posted by Peter Grandich at 11:00 AM on Thursday, June 11th, 2009

I’m almost caught up after just a week away from the office. It’s a tough job but somebody has to do it-lol

I want to say it was an absolute pleasure meeting so many blog followers at the Vancouver show. Your words of encouragement were very special to me. I always felt a sense of responsibility to my readers but after you meet so many personally, you come away with even more a desire not to screw up. Thanks again for all the kind words there and here on the blog.

There’s not much to update as yours truly has curled up into a fetal position-lol. I’m very content holding all metals related positions as I think we’re not even close to the explosive stage for precious metals and feel we’ve seen the lows for base metals.

I explained in Vancouver that after 25 years in this business and losing more money than I ever thought I would make as a youngster, I’ve learned to take profits, especially when they come much faster than expected. That’s why I advised taking profits in oil-related recommendations.

Since I’m basically a speculator/gambler, I’ve learned when you swing for the fences its best to have plenty of swings. Profits allow more swings.

I also feel quite comfortable holding my short treasuries and U.S. Dollar positions for the long term.

I’m extremely bearish on the belief that the U.S. economy can return to any real economic growth for years to come. Yes, a recovery is likely but what good will flat growth be anyway? It’s my belief that a multi-year trading range can develop between the lows around DJIA 6500 and 10,500 on the upside. I think the play is to await some a run to the top of the range before going short. If we simply go back towards the lows again I will once again consider the long side depending on the then current fundamental and technical outlooks.

In regards to the few open buy positions and Grandich Clients, here are my latest views:

Taseko Mines – Please see most recent comments

Continental Minerals – Buy up to $1.20. Stock appears to be consolidating recent gains.

Nevsun Resources – Would be a break out on a close above $1.60

All remaining positions in model portfolio are holds.

ATW Gold – The market seems to be realizing that they’re on the threshold of becoming a significant producer and still have excellent exploration potential.

Apella Resources – Still waiting on new developments.

Bravo Venture Group – Soon to be drilling again and the Homestake project is the homerun swing.

Crosshair Exploration – Has lifted off lows thanks to renewed interest in Uranium.

Donner Metals – The Rodney Dangerfield of juniors has finally received a little respect. Here’s to it continuing.

Farallon Mining – The name change says it all. It’s now a producer.

Hawthorne Gold – It too is set to drill and we wait in anticipation of good news.

Knight Resources – Another kick at the can this summer. Here’s to a big kick!

Northern Dynasty Minerals – Is consolidating recent run and is a buy if it gets below $7 again.

Oromin Explorations – Management continues to drill for gold and not investors. This may hurt now but pay off in the future.

Silvermex Resources – Is under review and I hope to have an update out soon.

Sunridge Gold- Just had an update today.

Timmins Gold – Onward and upward towards production now with financings all in place.

Posted in All Posts, Anooraq Resources Corp., Apella Resources, Base Metals, Bravo Venture Group, Copper, Crosshair Exploration, Donner Metals, Exploration Shares, Farallon Resources, Gold, Hawthorne Gold, Mining Shares, Nickel, Northern Dynasty, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, Sunridge Gold, Taseko Mines, Timmins Gold, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, Uranium, Vanadium, Zinc, world economy | 8 Comments »

Update From Vancouver 3:30PM DST

Posted by jojo at 3:26 PM on Monday, June 8th, 2009

 

            I noted before I took off for Vancouver commentaries from me would likely be limited. This trip has been especially busy as  I’ve      tried to have in-depth meetings with company clients, other public companies and some individual investors. In addition to this, I emcee a good portion of the show and have several individual speaking times.
                 I must say I was insulted by the following post:

           
            Jay Gillespie says:
June 6th
 “You, I, and many got hammered with ANO when you represented them before and nothing good happened. So you blew them off along with their shares. Your most recent comment was something like “the platinum market is ANO’s for the taking, if they want to.” Then you sever you consulting again as well as Rockwell which ranks right up there with Bush’s assertion that Hussein had WMF (with a bit of cooked information). Like Chris, I am most interested in your comments should you now feel you can make what have always been candid assessments. One does not like getting his nuts caught in another nut cracking slide.”

This is not the first time Mr. Gillespie has made comments about me that were totally without merit. It’s extremely rare for me to respond in this manner but I believe my integrity is being unfairly attacked.

First, I was informed last Friday that my services were no longer required by both Anooraq Resources and Rockwell Diamonds. I simply noted that ASAP. I could’ve waited to today or even when I returned to the office but I felt I must note changes in relationships ASAP. My plan was to discuss these two companies ASAP as I’m now doing.

Readers know that when possible, I comment on pass clients, especially when there’s news worthy of comment. Such would and will be the case when it comes to Anooraq.

Mr. Gillespie, Your recollection of my past relationship is totally false and quite frankly an attack on me personally. My original involvement with Anooraq saw a tripling in price whereupon I suggested taking out at least ones original investment. The stock fell to below a dollar whereupon it rose 200%+ again and I suggested selling some again. There’s a long time reader name Rocco who may be reading this. I know he can attest to my recommendation to sell some as he ended up not doing so and regretted it.

To accuse me of blowing off my shares is an accusation that I somehow sold shares at the expense of others. Nothing could be further from the truth. As noted earlier, my services were terminated without any notice and I had no chance to comment and could’ve simply waited to. To compare my actions to Bush/Hussein is an insult.

Now regarding Anooraq, I think the worse is behind them but they need to close the recent announced transaction before major investors become attracted to this situation. Longer term I do believe they have a tremendous opportunity to become one of the biggest producers in the world.

Now a quick rundown on the markets:

I continue to believe the spectacular bear market rally in equities is running out of steam. The continuing rise in interest rates is going to become another bearish factor if we see the ten-year Treasury note get above 4% (It’s getting there).
The anticipated countertrend rally in the U.S. Dollar is underway. The duration and height of it is hard to gauge without my technical analysis of which I should be able to update Wednesday when I return to my office. The rising dollar has indeed impacted gold and silver but as noted last week, I’m delighted it has. I like to see gold trade sideways between $925-$980 as the loner it does the more likelihood it can get above $1,000 and stay there. Oil is starting to finally show some real signs of peaking short-term.

Quick Notes of Interest
• Another sign of socialism coming.
• “Dead Man Walking” takes another blow http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/5473491/Top-Chinese-banker-Guo-Shuqing-calls-for-wider-use-of-yuan.html
• There’s one in every crowd
• I failed to note in my last comment on Sunridge Gold that they disclosed that seven mining companies have signed Confidentially Agreements with them. Another bullish sign.
• I had a chance to look at the technical results of Continental Minerals and I was most impressed. I like the way the stock is consolidating.
• Northern Dynasty Minerals appears to be digesting recent big gains. Any pullbacks under $7 should be a buying opportunity.
• Timmins Gold feels their debt financing is well along the way and completion of it can be very good news. Stay Tuned.
Things should return to normal upon my return to my office on Wednesday.

Peter signing off!
Peter Grandich and radio/TV talk show host Michael Campbell on the 14th tee box at Capilano, West Vancouver.

campbell_grandich_golf

 

 ~~~

This helped change my life. Click here.

Posted in A Grandich Company, All Posts, Anooraq Resources Corp., Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Nickel, Northern Dynasty, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, Sunridge Gold, Timmins Gold, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, world economy | 35 Comments »

The Cream of the Crop

Posted by Peter Grandich at 10:05 AM on Monday, June 1st, 2009

This commentary is highly biased and potential conflicts of interest.
I bet you don’t see many first sentences like this one in stock market commentaries. But it’s true. I’m absolutely fond of the Hunter-Dickinson group since the days of my position as a mutual fund and hedgefund manager (way back in the 90s – man am I old). I know of no other management group of this size and a history of developing so many companies in the resource sector. My conflicts included the fact that I own from time to time shares in one or more of their companies and I’m engaged as a compensated consultant to several.

Having said that, I would like to bring to your several of their companies, all of which I believe have a special story underway that can greatly impact corporate developments. I will of course note which ones I’m currently engaged by and if I own any shares at the moment (full disclosure is here).

Anooraq Resources (ARQ-TSX-V, ANO-NYSE/Alnet) – This is a special turnaround situation that in a few weeks can be elevated to a higher level. After a much too long dragged out major transaction that was greatly hindered by the financial crisis, the ability to become one of the world’s top platinum producers is now Anooraq’s for the taking. In addition, platinum prices have appeared to have bottomed and have move up nicely to a point where it’s profitable again to mine. I believe once the transaction is finalized, we could see a significant increase in shareholder value (I’m engaged by the company).

Continental Minerals (KMK-TSX-V) – While I’m not currently engaged by the company, I was last year. I also have bought a boatload of shares recently, including today. Two big copper-gold-silver porphyry deposits being developed that I believe are of extreme interest to one or more major base metals companies. Management recently proposed a poison pill and I knowing them I don’t think this was merely a simple corporate exercise. A dramatic increase in buying and a technical chart that indicates strong accumulation is a big plus. Even if there’s no near term interest from a major, the current two deposits are more than worth the current share price. Don’t chase the share price!!!!!!!

Farallon Mining (FAN-TSE) – A slogan just a few years ago at FAN was “Mine in 09”. Like much of what company CEO Dick Whittington does was smack on target despite horrific market conditions in 2008. Here too I think FAN is attractive to a significant player in Mexico and can also more than stand on its own if no such interest is forthcoming (I’m engaged by the company).

Northern Dynasty Minerals (NDM-TSE, NAK-NYSE/Alnet) – The cream of the crop at HD, it’s finally getting some of the recognition it has deserved. There’s just no way IMHO that it can remain independent for too much longer. Management has openly stated on more than one occasion it anticipated a major financial transaction in 2009. HD management word is 100x times more likely then Vancouver Canuck fans predictions of a Stanley Cup (but really, isn’t everything?). I’m engaged by the company and own shares.

Taseko Mines (TKO-TSE, TGB-NYSE/Alnet) – Here’s a perfect example of the skills of HD. They stuck through thick and thin with TKO, giving shareholders their best shots and it paid off. Now the company can see an increase in production and  another project they are awaiting permits for. If and when NDM goes, I think TKO becomes the flagship company (Not presently engaged but own options from previous engagement).

Posted in All Posts, Anooraq Resources Corp., Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Farallon Resources, Gold, Mining Shares, Northern Dynasty, Precious Metals, Silver, US Stocks | 13 Comments »

Update 7:45PM DST

Posted by Peter Grandich at 7:46 PM on Tuesday, May 19th, 2009

I want to start off with the “Walking Dead” U.S. Dollar. For the umpteen time the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd is ignoring a critical economic factor because the ramifications of it don’t fit into their “perfect” world. Make no mistake about it the decline of the world’s “current” reserve currency is far more important than any “green shoot.” Just like the American public paid little heed to the real estate and mortgage bubble, you can bet your sweet bippy they have no clue what’s happening with their terminally ill Uncle Sam paper.

For months now, we’ve seen and heard from around the world how key economic powers want to, or already have, moved away from the U.S. dollar. An even more important fact is how many world players have rallied behind the U.S. Dollar? If your answer is the same number of Vancouver Canucks Stanley Cup wins, you’re correct.

Don’t expect many in the regular financial media, main street financial firms (those who are left and have come out from their bunkers) and especially the Obama administration/Fed. In fact, I’m waiting for them to tell us what the last four administrations have said -“We’ve a strong dollar policy”. For the love of God pray they never employ a weak dollar policy (actually they don’t have to since we’ve have one already).

Meanwhile, the 10yr. Treasury did as expected and merely rallied to former support a little over 3%. I’ve little doubt that the first people starting to get a whiff of the increasing weakness in the “dead man walking” currency is the bond market. Stay tuned as this should get interesting in the days and weeks ahead.

Despite a knucklehead or two perma-precious metals bears who despite being wrong since 2002 on the metals continue to be quoted (I’ve been wrong but not for 7 years in a row. Unfortunately the media never bother to check how wrong these two characters constantly are. It’s not jealousy but I get questions about what they’re saying because people assume since their quoted they must be accurate-nothing could be further when it comes to JN and LK), gold and silver remain in a stealth bull market. This base has been building for months and a break out could be near.

The weak dollar has given a boost to oil and while my target of $60 has been touched, I continue to believe we’re overdue for a correction/consolidation. A close above the magical $60 could be the trigger.

Today’s volume was extremely weak in equities and the declining VIX number actually has bearish implications.

In regards to the model portfolio, CDE-NYSE was closed out today at $1.37 and KMK-TSX-V was added at $1.03.

Not surprising, many people were asking about Northern Dynasty today. I’ve to walk a fine line due to the fact that I’m a compensated consultant to the firm, I own lots of shares and I’m either going to receive lots of Christmas presents from friends and relatives or have lots of coal for the winter.

Today’s volume may be one of the highest since I came involve with the stock back under a buck. We also had the highest close in many months. I’m a broken record but how does 50% of the single largest undeveloped copper/gold project remain in the hands of NDM indefinitely? I said it before and I’ll say it again, IMHO how does Anglo allow anyone to acquire the other 50% for anything less than the cost they will incur to earn their 50%? Heck in this day and age anything possible but I suspect if and when there’s a bid, the first bid won’t be the last bid. Lets not forget NDM management has said on several occasions they were expecting a major financial transaction on NDM. That in itself was telling.

I failed to mentioned  another critical factor regarding KMK-TSX-V. They recently announced a poison pill. IMHO, HD doesn’t do that as a mere exercise but who knows for sure? Shortly after I posted my KMK comments the company made this announcement. This is a very bullish development.

Finally, Anooraq Resources conference call today was most interesting. A recording of it should be available shortly.

For those of you attending the Vancouver Show in June, please note i will be doing a special Q & A right after the main show closes Monday night.

Posted in All Posts, Anooraq Resources Corp., Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Northern Dynasty, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, US Dollar, US Stocks, world economy | 20 Comments »

Adversity Creates Opportunity

Posted by Peter Grandich at 7:31 AM on Monday, May 18th, 2009

There’s an old stock market saying that the current share price reflects fully what’s already known about the company. That may be true but far more times than investors imagine, an important part of information may have been erroneously judged. Such is the case of Anooraq Resources (ANO-ALTNET, ARQ-TSX).

After far more months than first thought, the deal with Anglo Platinum was finally restructured to the satisfaction of both parties. I believe the run-up the week before was anticipation of the news. To my surprise and that of Anooraq, the stock came off. IMHO, because the deal is complicated, I believe many came away from the news without a full grasp of what it means. I think this has created a great speculative opportunity for investors looking to get on board an emerging intermediate producer with strong upside potential.

What’s extremely important to note is that when it comes to South Africa, I believe Anglo is king and queen. They also are funding 100% of this deal and Anooraq is going to have enormous exposure to the only SA platinum company with real expansion potential. The share price is trading at a discount to NAV.

I think in the next few weeks there can be a change of opinion, starting with a major conference call by Anooraq this Tuesday. A major road trip follows and I strongly believe once analysts, fund managers and investors hear and get a chance to “dig” into the deal, a major readjustment in valuation can take place for Anooraq.

Posted in All Posts, Anooraq Resources Corp., Exploration Shares, Mining Shares, US Stocks | 14 Comments »

Update 10:00PM DST

Posted by Peter Grandich at 9:55 PM on Monday, April 13th, 2009

They say life is all about choices. Well so is market timing (Think of the poor man who invented Preparation G). Thanks be to God I chose to leave the bear camp just one day from what looks more and more like “the” bottom.

The good news is I’ve been able to greatly partake in one of the biggest rallies ever. The bad news is, most of my former bear colleagues have not been so fortunate.

As noted recently, the hunters have become the hunted. I wonder what Roubini bear meat tastes like?

U.S. Stock Market – This “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd aren’t that bad after all. I just came back from their clubhouse with lots of literature about becoming a member, including:

  • A lifetime premium subscription to CNBC-TV and an autographed Cramer bobble head.
  • A beautiful tee shirt and matching bumper sticker that reads, “If Obama can’t do it no one can.”
  • 100 different books on how buy and hold works, a former $10,000 value now mine for free.
  • A “Happy Days Are Here Again” poster signed by brokers from Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and many of the on-air personnel from CNBC-TV.

Surprisingly, it was not a hard sell. They were quite uncomfortable at first knowing my background but hoisted me up on their shoulders and sang He’s a Jolly Good Fellow” after I mentioned this rally could eventually go past my DJIA 9000 target.

Seriously, I will never ever join this club. I’m bullish but not because I always am and like a broken clock I will be right two times a day, but simply because my work told me to be so. But before you think I can’t do no wrong, be advised I lost money with the best of them.

Like oil did at years-end, the stock market is now able to discount bad news and rallies strongly on anything perceived as good news. This is not typical bear market behavior and why if it continues, the bears could be in serious trouble. The fact that the bears can’t keep the market down is another bullish indication (even though we are overbought).

My enthusiasm should not be viewed as a change in my multi-year outlook. In fact, my 3-5 year scenario is even grimmer now. But not wanting to look a gift horse in the mouth, I’ll let them think I’m filling out my application as we get closer to DJIA 9000.

U.S. Dollar - Dead man walking.

U.S. Treasuries – If not for the Fed buy program, we’d already be much above 3% on the 10yr. That’s okay as by artificially preventing it, the lost will be that much worse when the dam breaks.

Precious Metals - While gold and silver have bounced off the lower part of their trading range, platinum has busted out. There’s still hope for Anooraq!

Base Metals – While not catching the exact bottom, I feel quite good about significantly increasing exposure to base metals, and in particular copper last month. I think the market has gone from sell rallies to buy pullbacks.

Oil - I’m glad to see it consolidating between $45-$55 as we enter a seasonally weak period for it. Use any real weakness to add to or make new purchases.

Posted in A Grandich Company, All Posts, Anooraq Resources Corp., Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Nickel, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, Zinc, world economy | 29 Comments »

Grandich Client Update

Posted by Peter Grandich at 12:52 PM on Saturday, January 10th, 2009

Anooraq Resources (ANO-AMEX) – The completion of the acquisition is expected shortly. I believe this should bring a big bump up in the share price. The rise in platinum prices won’t hurt either. Stay tuned.

ATW Gold (ATW-TSX-V) – Like many of the emerging gold producers, ATW is beginning to generate a lot of attention as they move towards production in March.  I have high expectation for 2009.

I’ve put together a quick summary of the company’s progress in Australia to date.  A full corporate update, which will include the updated mine plan and production schedule for Burnakura, is scheduled to be released by the end of the month.   Brent Butler and his team have made considerable progress at both the Burnakura and Gullewa mine sites:

On the exploration side, ATW has had continued success with the drill bit: consistently hitting high-grade intercepts during their fall program:

-      16.0-metre intercept, grading 9.79 grams per tonne gold.

-      23.7-metre intercept, grading 16.0 grams per tonne gold

-      15.6-metre intercept, grading 13.7 grams per tonne gold

Refurbishing of the plant at Burnakura is nearing completion, with the elution circuit for gold recovery and the gold room being the only items remaining to be completed. Recently, the crushing circuit and mill were commissioned with great success.  A video of the crusher has been posted on the company’s website www.atwgold.comm

A new zone within mining distance of the underground workings has been discovered; drilling has yet to fully define this new zone but the results to date will be included in ATW’s new mine plan.

The underground mining contractor has been selected and management tells me they are pleased with the proposed cost for delivery of ore to the plant.

An IP survey and gravity survey were completed on the Gullewa Project.  Interpretation of these surveys show that the current 750,000 oz Deflector Deposit could continue for an additional 1500 meters.  Gullewa should add another dimension to ATW’s story when it is drilled this spring.

Moving ahead in 2009, I believe that ATW can benefit from the easing of fuel prices and labor costs in Western Australia, giving the company some breathing room in their projected cash operating costs of $700 AUD per gold ounce.  The economics at Burnakura continue to be robust, with the price of gold in Australian dollars recently hitting $1200.  The transition from explorer to emerging gold producer can create significant value for shareholders in 2009.

Bravo Ventures Group (BVG-TSX-V) A brand new client. I hope to have a full report out shortly. (more…)

Posted in A Grandich Company, All Posts, Anooraq Resources Corp., Base Metals, Copper, Crosshair Exploration, Diamonds, Donner Metals, Exploration Shares, Farallon Resources, Gold, Lead, Mining Shares, Nickel, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, Sunridge Gold, Timmins Gold, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, Uranium, Vanadium, Zinc, world economy | 4 Comments »

Anooraq Resources Update

Posted by admin at 9:59 AM on Monday, September 15th, 2008

Anooraq Resources (ARQ-TSX-V $1.58 ANO-Amex $1.56) - The merger should finalize soon and I think we can see a sharp rebound here.

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Posted in A Grandich Company, All Posts, Anooraq Resources Corp. | 1 Comment »