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Alert

Posted by Peter Grandich at 8:15 PM on Thursday, November 19th, 2009

News out of Eritrea of possible UN sanctions may lead to some concerns about companies operating in the country. While this is not “new” news, it’s never-the-less can impact Nevsun Resources in our model portfolio and Sunridge Gold, a client of ours.

At this point in time it appears more of the same political risk that has been present for some time. However, some may not be able to handle the financial and mental anguish that can come from the situation becoming far worse. Therefore I’m going to suggest to those who can’t afford the situation developing into something more than a bump in the road to consider selling and moving on. Because I don’t think this is a universal move at this time, the company will remain in the model portfolio but be a hold until further notice. Please note as I type I personally would likely be a buyer if this news in current form took this stock much below $2.50.

I spoke to Sunridge Gold management this evening. It was their view that if such a resolution actually was voted on,China and or Russia would veto it.China has been active in the country. They said their operations remain normal. Here too those who wish to be safe versus sorry can move aside. We shall address this further as more information becomes available.

I’ll be monitoring this closely and will post again when needed.

Update From Vancouver

Posted by Peter Grandich at 11:58 AM on Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

No rain today (tonight is expected to be another story) so hoping to head up to Whistler for the day.

U.S. Stock Market – Yesterday’s late day sell-off was the first of its kind in quite awhile. The market has not had a 10%+ correction since the March lows. We’ll need to watch the next couple of days to see if one has finally arrived. Whether it does or not the market continues to “melt-up” and my target of DJIA 10,500-11,000 remains intact.

U.S. Dollar – In 25 years+ in this business, I can’t recall any single market having such an overwhelming number of bears (95% bears in U.S. Dollar Futures) and not see a reversal of some magnitude. There are just so many legitimate bearish factors continuing to pile up against the U.S. Dollar. The only hope for some counter-trend rally to begin would come IMHO if the U.S. Dollar Index could close above 78. Until such time, the path of least resistance remains down.

Gold – Sorry for the bad language but if you’re a bear you have to be poo-pooing in your pants right about now. Despite widespread bearishness not only from the usual wrong suspects, many former bulls became weak kneed or outright bearish and continue to see the market move away from them. Gold has shown tremendous internal strength by actually self-correcting intra-day by selling off only to come roaring back. Today so far has been no exception. We’re in a secular bull market that has been “stealth-like” and despite being a few dollars from it’s all-time nominal high, gold remains hated and/or ignored by most. I LOVE IT!!!!

Oil - Oil indeed broke out above $76 and has $85+ written all over it. If it can get there with the DJIA also hitting my target, both could become shorts so stay tuned.

U.S. Interest Rates – Going much higher over time!

I’ve met with a few companies so far on my trip and here’s a summary of those meetings as of now:

Effective immediately, I’ve resigned my position with ATW Gold. I’ve said over and over again that management is the key for a junior’s ability to be the one in ten that makes it. While I have considerable personal respect for Graham Harris of ATW Gold, I believe his management team has not done the job. While I believe Graham will try hard to right the ship, the bottom line is they lost the confidence of shareholders, myself and the market in general. I think there are too many others who offer better opportunity at this time and one should recognize this and move on.

I had a terrific meeting with the management of Evolving Gold. Yesterday’s drill results IMHO strongly suggest that they have true home-run potential. I no longer think the question is DO they have something but HOW BIG will it end up? Management agreed with me that they have room for improvement on the corporate communication side of things but don’t let that be a knock against them. Remember, they’re the very same management team which has discovered and is developing what 99% of all other management teams can only dream about. I CONTINUE TO BELIEVE ANYTHING UNDER A BUCK IS AN AGGRESSIVE SPECULATIVE BUY.

Met with Hunter-Dickinson management and had great updates on Farallon, Taseko, Northern Dynasty and Continental Minerals. With great bias I must tell you in all my years associated with HD, I never found them as confident in one of their deals as they are with KMK.

I had an in-depth update on Sunridge Gold. They have all the makings of becoming the next Nevsun. Company is on European road show. I’m told to look forward to lots of news flow.

Must Watch! For all those who make fun of people like me and others that speak openly about the U.S. government’s “Working Group”, I strongly suggest you watch this video.

God Bless!

Update and Things

Posted by jojo at 11:21 AM on Saturday, October 3rd, 2009

10-01-09$TRAN

10-01-09$INDU

Is the great bear market rally coming to an end?

While the “Happy” people on Wall Street can take some comfort that the stock market didn’t roll over on Friday given the clearly disappointing employment news, two key indexes are suggesting the end to the incredible run may come sooner than even I thought. The Dow Transports are clearly weakening, a sign that the green shoots are not maturing into sustained economic beauty. Meanwhile, the DJIA looks like it needs to test 9200 before any real chance of a resumption to the upside could even be considered. With little economic news due out this coming week, the “Happy” people have their work cut out for them. I expect a run on “magic dust” this week.

The real truth on employment?

http://www.kereport.com/weekendshow/weekendr-oct0309-seg3.html

http://www.kereport.com/weekendshow/weekendr-oct0309-seg6.html

I rarely recommend a service but John’s is a must http://www.shadowstats.com/

This upcoming week also looks like a critical period for gold and the U.S. Dollar.

As noted on Friday, The large number of gold bears and weak-knee bulls must have said to themselves shortly after the employment release that by days end they would be feasting on bull meat. Instead, they saw a sharp reversal in their fortunes and went into the weekend still hungry. The bulls are by no means out of the woods yet as we need to close above $1.025 before any bear meat feast can officially get under way. Stay tuned.

As noted on Thursday, the U.S. Dollar is at a key technical point. It too looked like it may gain some traction Friday only to end up what it usually does best – lose ground.

To me, there was no logic for oil’s $4 run up last Thursday. The fundamentals continue to stink and a key trader I spoke to said it was all a big push by the hedgefunds. He says the trade wants to hammer oil lower but is too afraid to go up up against the hot money. The U.S. dollar direction can also play a key role in determining where oil heads near term making the upcoming week very interesting.

The copper market also has an interesting situation. The market is in contango until the June 2010 contracts then it goes into backwardation. For the moment this suggest the market sees a double-dip recession. Hmmm….

Nevsun Resources and Sunridge Gold – NSU made this release, which was follow-up by this research update from Cannacord. We also saw another firm raise its target price (Nevsun Resources Tgt Raised To C$3.60 From C$3 By GMP >NSU.T Friday 10/02/2009 1:00 PM ET – Dow Jones News). Please note the analysts also visited Sunridge Gold who announced the closing of their deal that IMHO makes them the next possible Nevsun.

Is Continental Minerals now a no-brainer? First and foremost, I’m extremely biased. KMK has become about half of my entire equity portfolio. Secondly, I work closely with its management team (Hunter-Dickinson) as a compensated consultant in other companies.

With this in mind, I believe the news of another Chinese major shareholder has put KMK into play. The previous sole large Chinese stakeholder didn’t have it in its best interest to expedite matters (read the arrangement). Now, it has a direct competitor who at any moment can make an offer for the whole enchilada. This is a game changer. If the rumors that it had made a low ball offer has any validity, this would have to tell them loud and clear HD is ready to move forward, has the ability to do so, and now they are not the only kid on the block. I suspect HD will now do what it does best, move KMK to the next level and this should include now an active promotional campaign. Knowing how well followed they are, I don’t think it will be too long before we start to see evidence of this. I think we can now really appreciate the poison pill that was adopted earlier this year Stay tuned.

Al Korelin had two updates on a past and present client of ours.

New Client Alert

Posted by Peter Grandich at 10:47 AM on Friday, September 25th, 2009

I want to alert readers that I’ve eagerly been engaged by Crescent Resources (CRC-TSX-V $.25).Besides my normal biases due to the working relationship, you need to know I’ve purchased a very large amount of shares. CRC shares key management of Sunridge Gold (SGC-TSX-V) another client of mine and a company I own a significant share position in.

I plan on having a detailed report out on CRC ASAP, but felt I needed to share with my readers first this news since i expect to talk about it at the Toronto show this weekend.

I believe Evolving Gold (EVG-TSX-V) may have found a elephant at it’s Rattlesnake property in Wyoming and CRC is becoming a player in the area.  Details to come in the very near term.

Things

Posted by Peter Grandich at 8:31 PM on Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

NDM Technical comment

Eritrea/Nevsun Resources article in Financial Times

Proactive Investors comment on Sunridge Gold

Interesting Silver interview

“…The Antofagasta deal is extremely significant, as it enables the company to continue to explore its extensive and
highly prospective property and at the same time advance the known deposits
through prefeasibility studies. Advancing the deposits to the next stage in the development cycle will add considerable
shareholder values. The potential for further discoveries makes this companyextremely attractive at the current
price… Lawrence Raulston”s Resource Opportunities quote on Sunridge Gold Sept, 2009 Issue

In regards to my Evolving Gold recommendation earlier today, I received a couple of emails I like to respond to here. The first was regarding my concern about a reported sell recommendation on EVG on the belief of poor drill results.

I believe he recent results from EVG’s Rattlesnake Hills demonstrate further potential of the project and the robust nature of the gold mineralization in the area, although momentarily disappointing the market. Comparisons have been made between the Rattlesnake Hills geology and that of the Cripple Creek District in Colorado where over 25 million ounces have been mined. At the Cripple Creek District, gold mineralization occurs in two principle styles1) large zones of lower grade mineralization and 2) high grade zones.

EVG’s recent news reported results from the lower grade zones, where they reported very long intercepts of lower gold grades - but decent gold values mind you – and results from the high grade area intercepts are still to come. They currently have 5 drills turning and we can expect a steady stream of high and low grade results over a broad area from this area. One’s man’s “poor” results is another man’s “opportunity”.

EVG relationship with Agoracom will have no effect on my buy or sell recommendation.

New York Mets catcher Omir Santos and Peter Grandich

Link to pictures from Fealgoodfoundation Gala

Sunridge Gold – A Giant Helps It Take Several Steps Up The Corporate Ladder.

Posted by Peter Grandich at 6:09 AM on Tuesday, September 8th, 2009

Intro

Sunridge Gold announced a blockbuster deal with global copper producer Antofagasta Minerals S.A. that IMHO can change the landscape of the mining industry in Eritrea. The strategic alliance should enable Sunridge to aggressively explore the 585 square kilometer property that obviously Antofagasta believes has enormous potential. The agreement also allows Sunridge to continue developing the 4 known deposits that they already have in Eritrea.

More importantly though, a major global mining producer entering Eritrea for the first time is a major stamp of approval on both Sunridge and the country, and should help position Eritrea as the next mining hot spot in the world.

In working towards this deal, Antofagasta conducted extensive due diligence studies. This work included an in-depth study of the technical merits and geology, and also the geopolitical situation in Eritrea. Antofagasta management visited Eritrea  and met with all levels of government. Their geologists did an extensive investigation into the geology by visiting the field and reviewing all technical data available on the project. They share Sunridge’s belief that the project could potentially host several large base metal and gold deposits, perhaps even larger than Sunridge’s Emba Derho deposit.

Sunridge will now have approximately $10 million in the treasury and further commitments from Antofagasta to fund an additional $10 million over the next 5 years.

Watch for news on this in the near future.

In my discussions with Sunridge management, they tell me that a news release outlining plans to drill on the Development Areas which they retain 100% should be forthcoming. This should include plans on the Debarwa deposit, which hosts extremely high copper grades and Sunridge geos feel can greatly be expanded.

Once the final agreement with Antofagasta is signed, exploration work should focus on 2 fronts:

1 – Drilling the new high priority targets on the Exploration Areas under the agreement, and

2 – Drilling on the Development Areas owned 100% by Sunridge.

Antofagasta

Antofagasta plc is listed on the London Stock Exchange and is a constituent of the FTSE-100 index. Its Chilean mining operations, which comprise Los Pelambres, El Tesoro and Michilla, are expected to produce approximately 447,000 tonnes of copper in concentrate and cathode and 7,200 tonnes of molybdenum in concentrate in 2009.  It is currently carrying out a Brownfield expansion at Los Pelambres and developing the greenfield Esperanza project in Chile, which, when operational, are expected to increase total Group copper production to nearly 700,000 tonnes per year from 2011. Antofagasta also has exploration or feasibility programs in Chile, Pakistan, Zambia and Mexico.  At 30 June 2009, Antofagasta plc had net cash of US$1.8 billion and it currently has a market capitalization of US$11.3 billion.

The Agreement

By funding US$10 million of exploration work over a 5-year period, Antofagasta can earn a 60% interest in a portion of the Sunridge’s Asmama project known as the Exploration Areas. They will have a right to complete a feasibility study on any project in the exploration areas to earn another 15%. Antofagasta will also purchase common shares of Sunridge in a non-brokered private placement for proceeds of US$5 million.

Antofagasta will become Sunridge’s largest shareholder owning an approximate 18% interest in Sunridge. Sunridge will retain 100% ownership of the 4 deposits discovered to date on the property.

Exploration Area

The deal will allow Sunridge to aggressively drill the numerous high priority drill targets located on the Asmara Project. This area appears to host some of the best potential in the world for VMS gold-base metals targets.

These high priority drill targets have been identified over the past several years through geological mapping and sampling as well as various geophysical methods. The targets typically have strong gravity anomalies, strong EM anomalies, strong soil geochemical anomalies, and to top it off they have gossanous rock poking out at surface. These are the same methods used by Sunridge in the discovery of their large Emba Derho copper-zinc-gold deposit, as well as Nevsun’s Bisha Project.

The new targets of particular interest are Dario Paulus, Kodadu, Adi Rassi, Adi Musa and Adi Lamza and we can watch for these names in the upcoming months as Sunridge begins an their drill program.

Development Areas

Sunridge has had great success with its’ drill programs over the last 5 years and has already defined 4 deposits on the Asmara Project, including the large Emba Derho deposit where a recent Preliminary Economic Assessment (Scoping) Study showed it to have a NPV of over US$200 million. Sunridge will retain 100% ownership of the deposits in the Development Areas. These four deposits contain “indicated 43-101” resources totaling:

  • 1.28 billion pounds. of copper,
  • 2.5 billion pounds of zinc,
  • 955,000 ounces of gold, and
  • 31.2 million ounces of silver

The four deposits defined by Sunridge in the Development Area to date are described below:

Emba Derho

  • NI 43-101 “Indicated” resource – Approx 62.5 m/tonnes containing 990 m lbs Cu, 1.9 billion lbs Zn, 580,000 ozs Au & 20.8 m/ozs Ag.
  • Positive Independent Preliminary Economic Assessment (Scoping) Study completed June 4, 2009 by Wardrop Engineering Inc shows:
    • Pre-tax NPV 0f US$203.9 million with 10% discount
    • Base case IRR of 21.6% with 4 year payback
    • Potential large open pit mine.
  • Emba Derho deposit remains open to northwest, northeast, and to depth.

Debarwa

  • Supergene copper zone with 1.3 m/tonnes of 5.36% copper, 1.54 g/t gold and 33.87 silver, containing 158 million pounds of copper in the Indicated category.
  • Total Indicated NI43-101 resource – 4.47 million tonnes.
  • The deep primary zone at Debarwa, which is open at depth, has an average grade of 2.53% copper with 3.23 % zinc in the Indicated category using a 1% copper cut-off and contains an additional 39 million pounds of copper and 49.8 million pounds of zinc.
  • Open in several directions for expansion.

Adi Nefas

  • High-grade VMS deposit.
  • NI43-101 indicated resource of 2.7 million tones with 8.38% zinc, 2.85 g/t gold and 99.36 g/t silver, containing 504 million pounds of zinc, 250,000 ounces of gold and 9 million ounces of silver.
  • Close proximity (6 km) to the large Emba Derho VMS deposit.

Gupo Gold

Drilling has outlined an inferred gold resource estimate of 1,965,000 tonnes at a grade of 2.99 grams per tonne gold totaling 189,000 ounces of gold.

Nevsun

The news of this agreement is also a tremendous boost for Nevsun Resources (Is in our model portfolio). Nevsun has been going it alone in building their Bisha Mine located in western Eritrea and the fact that a major mining company has entered the country after conducting a full due diligence give credence to what both Sunridge and Nevsun management have been saying about working in the country.

Nevsun also announced in July that they have secured the debt financing necessary to build the mine and production is expected 3rd or 4th quarter 2010. Several scenarios can be played out going forward – all good for Nevsun and Sunridge shareholders.

The Bottom Line

While both Sunridge and Nevsun have run up of late, they still appear to have lots of corporate development in front of them. In the case of Nevsun, I believe this news bolsters those of us who claim it’s a worthy takeover target. This can only help Sunridge if and when this proves correct.

Alert!

Posted by Peter Grandich at 8:58 AM on Friday, September 4th, 2009

Sunridge Gold takes major corporate step forward on this news. This has tremendous multiple positive impacts and also indirectly helps Nevsun Resources as one of the world’s biggest mining companies has arrived in Eritrea.

I will discuss this great news with management in detail an have an update out on Sunridge next week.

Alert on Sunridge Gold

Posted by Peter Grandich at 12:14 PM on Wednesday, August 26th, 2009

Read

Nevsun, Sunridge and Eritrea

Posted by Peter Grandich at 12:49 PM on Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

Lots of inquiries about action today in Nevsun Resources. As you know this is a prime takeover candidate IMHO. The shares pulled back recently during the consolidation in gold and the umpteen no, new-news story of America’s political view on Eritrea. I had hoped this way overblown concern and gold weakness could bring Christmas early by allowing purchases at $1.40 or under U.S. We almost got our present.

Whether today’s latest rumor of  takeover amounts to anything or not, I do believe barring a collapse in metal prices  and/or a dramatic escalation of the friction involving Eritrea, a takeover of NSU is not if, but when. This is a superb project with a fantastic payback schedule.

If and when such a deal takes place, I suspect Eritrea can become a major area play given the tremendous exploration potential it has. Sunridge Gold (SGC-TSX.V $.40) is a natural “next-in-line” play with a strong package of projects. My belief, albeit prejudice due to the working relationship I have with SGC, is SGC becomes the next institutional/mining company darling in the area.

Stay tuned.

Nevsun Resources – All Aboard!

Posted by Peter Grandich at 9:31 PM on Thursday, July 16th, 2009

Today’s news of a super fast closing on the debt financing for NSU makes me feel the train is now ready to pull out of the station. With a superb fast payback and a world class project, I believe NSU is a prime takeover target. I think we’re set to break out now and our first target is $2. I do feel $2.50 can be reached within the next 6-9 months and believe a $4-$5 takeover target is reasonable.

The $1.50 area was once support on three different occasions so it was not surprising to see it become resistance after the market meltdown last year. I think it’s set to be taken out here barring a sell-off in gold.

Again, I like to note the closing of this deal IMHO is going to put Eritrea in play and Sunridge Gold (SGC-TSX-V) a Grandich Publications client, can greatly benefit.

Speaking of gold, it once again for the umpteen time hit resistance at $940. When we finally break through – watch out!