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Comments on Some Companies

Posted by Peter Grandich at 6:13 PM on Thursday, August 6th, 2009

I like to comment on a few model portfolio companies and Grandich clients.

Please note I will not response to every comment somewhere in Cyberspace about any and all companies of mine. The amount of false, half-truths and misinformation comments provided by people with personal agendas is not something I give any mind to. I notice as this blog becomes more popular, there’s an element that is using it for agendas not in the best interests of most. Just know if there’s really a need to comment on a matter, yours truly will. Until then, don’t let these folks disrupt you.

Northern Dynasty Minerals – I’ve truly lost count on the number of actions those opposed to the Pebble Deposit have taken. To my knowledge none have succeeded and I believe this latest salvo shall meet the same result. It’s critically important for anyone who speculates in the mining and exploration industry to understand that environmental opposition is a way of life for some and will always be present. The environmentalists need media attention as it helps fund their causes.

Make no mistake about it I believe the environment is a critical issue in all mining and exploration manners. In this case, it’s important to understand this is not a lawsuit against NDM, its partner or the deposit.

It’s this group against the State of Alaska. I not only believe the case is without merit, but I anticipate a variety of people, groups, etc., to come out against this action as it goes to the heart of Alaska’s constitution. I’m no attorney (thank God) but I would not be surprise to learn that one or more groups enact an “intervener status” in this case.

I fully expect this latest action to end up where all other Pebble-related actions have gone – nowhere. At $6 U.S. or under the stock is a compelling speculation.

Nevsun Resources – Earlier today was an example of “super-overreaction” of a news story and some comments in cyberspace that led to some making an uninformed decision. The United States and Eritrea have been at odds for quite some time. A comment by Hillary Clinton that really was nothing new caused some emailers to state they sold on the news. That’s fine if they want to think this somehow has ratcheted up things but these sellers sold because they weren’t even aware this was already well known item and almost certainly discounted by the market. Once again emotional decisions are almost always poor ones. Yes, the situation could turn for the worse but so can I get hit by a car crossing the street. The thought process should have been is this news (no), and does it change the reasons for owning the stock (no)? Will there be some distracters burning the midnight oil hoping this situation does explode? Based on this blog-yes. But at this point it would be like sitting on your bed and not moving knowing sooner or later you’re going to hurt yourself somehow.

I would add to positions if we get a pullback under $1.50 U.S.

Continental Resources – Yet another no-new-news situation. Back in June at the Vancouver Resource show, three young adults stood outside the Convention Center with a bed sheet sign calling for no mining in Tibet. There were a couple reporters covering the “event”. Do these people have a right to express their opinion? Absolutely. Do they present a serious obstacle now? Absolutely not. Again, distracters will use any and all news to try and impact the uninformed. In this case, China is just too darn big and powerful for anybody or country to oppose it on major matters, let alone mining. Continental management has gone very tight-lipped and just says all systems are a go. Knowing Hunter-Dickinson as I do, I take them at their word.

Taseko Mines – The train has indeed left the station. Where it is on the tracks will be discussed in a conference call next Wednesday. I’ll be the one with the caboose hat on.

Grandich Client Companies

Apella Resources – Following up to my report earlier this week, again a naysayer with obvious lack of real understanding expresses a counter view in cyberspace and my email/phone lights up. This badly informed person tried to assert that the world was full of Vanadium and especially Australia.

What that anonymous party failed to mention is the fact that Windimurra was the only Vanadium project of real merit in Australia…though there may be other small ones that I’m unaware of. Windimurra has a proven 45-50 million tonnes, whereas Lac Dore alone contains a proven 102 million tonnes at higher average grades. Lac Dore is actually the second biggest V deposit in the world, ranking only behind Highveld in South Africa. Apella Resources expects Iron-T and Lac Dore North to be significantly larger than the Lac Dore. It is particularly important to note that as of recently, Windimurra went bankrupt due to separation issues with their ore(though I would want to do some digging to find out exactly what the issues were).. One more important point is that though China has significant Vanadium supplies, theirs are large low grade deposits and with growing demand they are now slowing exportation of Vanadium, and increasing import of additional supplies. When looking at all of these deposits, one of the most compelling points for Apella, is that all of our projects are surface or near surface mineralization making them open-pitiable. Any time you are looking at an underground operation for Vanadium, your grades must be very high to make it economic.

ATW Gold – Move over Donner Resources, ATW Gold is now the Rodney Dangerfield of juniors. Actually it had lots of respect but that has been called into question of late by some investors, justifiably or not. Deservingly or not, management needs to restore confidence and they can do so by delivering on their plans. I have every reason to believe they can and would use any further weakness as an opportunity to be part of an emerging gold producer.

A former client who I still follow is Eastmain Resources. I spoke about them on www.kereport.com Listen here.

And finally, what’s a penny really worth these days?

Posted in All Posts, Apella Resources, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Northern Dynasty, Precious Metals, Silver, Taseko Mines, US Stocks, Vanadium, Zinc | 25 Comments »

Taseko Mines – The Train Is Leaving The Station

Posted by Peter Grandich at 7:56 AM on Thursday, July 30th, 2009

Taseko Mines (TGB-Altnet $2.03) – The technical and fundamental outlook for TGB hasn’t looked this good in quite sometime. The stock appears ready for a move up to the $3.50 – $4 area in the next 6-12 months. ALL ABOARD!!!

Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Precious Metals, Silver, Taseko Mines, US Stocks | 10 Comments »

Update

Posted by Peter Grandich at 9:26 PM on Tuesday, July 28th, 2009

Once again it appears I must tell those who feel a need to defend me for some reason that while I appreciate the thought, it’s not necessary. We’ve 30,000+ readers so know I won’t lose sleep if one or a handful of people choose to use the blog in a manner that appears unbecoming to me. I trust the vast majority of viewers have the ability to judge for themselves and aren’t going to be dependent on a friend or foe of mine to make up their mind.

I do want to note that in very rare cases (I believe just 3 posters since we began the blog), I have had to remove or prevent posts that we believe are not worthy of publication. That’s our right of which thankfully has allow 99.999% of all posts written to be posted.

Gold ($937) – It may sound strange to some but today was a great day for gold. What’s that Peter? Yes, today further the bullish case IMHO. How you ask? Bearishness has now spread to the usual bullish public segment of the market. Even very bullish forecasters like a man I respect greatly have turned bearish or are now looking for a serious correction. All this while gold is at one of its all-time high trading ranges. This is exactly what happens in secular bull markets and just before another major leg up.

To those who say the bull market in gold is over

I updated our model portfolio.

I want to note Taseko Mines had a tremendously bullish technical trading day. Barring a sharp sell-off in the metals and stock market, Taseko looks like its heading much higher.

In regards to Continental Minerals and questions about takeover and merger talk, all I can say at this time is it would come as no surprise to me that a company or companies made a run at KMK and/or looked to buy a significant stake. I purchased more shares today.

More chatter that continues to lead me to believe the Iran/Israel situation is moving close, not further away, from a confrontation.

We’re less than three weeks from our Jersey Shore conference. I look forward to meeting many of you there.

Please Note - Oromin Explorations will no longer be a client of Grandich Publications as of August 1st. I wish them well.

Posted in A Grandich Company, All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Nickel, Precious Metals, Silver, Taseko Mines, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, Zinc, world economy | 27 Comments »

Taseko Mines – Keeps on Trucking

Posted by Peter Grandich at 9:20 AM on Monday, July 27th, 2009

Read

Posted in All Posts, Taseko Mines | 12 Comments »

Grandich Interview

Posted by Peter Grandich at 4:56 PM on Tuesday, July 14th, 2009

The Gold Report

Posted in A Grandich Company, All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Hawthorne Gold, Mining Shares, Nickel, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, Taseko Mines, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, Zinc, world economy | 32 Comments »

Who’s That Knocking At My Door?

Posted by Peter Grandich at 11:13 PM on Wednesday, July 8th, 2009

For several weeks I urged taking profits in many positions in the model portfolio in hopes some big opportunity would come knocking again. During that time some people questioned why sell while the going was so good? I consistently stated I wanted investors to build up a very comfortable position so they could easily take advantage of when the rap on the door returns.

Proving how crazy this prognosticating business can be, now that an anticipated opportunity presents itself to buy below “retail”, the very people who struggled with the thought of selling just a few weeks ago now appear too afraid to buy. I’ve purposely taken serious profits on several fronts these past couple of months so the model portfolio could be in a position of strength to act aggressively if the big opportunity presented itself. I believe it has!

While the current open positions are limited versus several months ago when I took the plunge on the long side aggressively, I’m confident my choice of quality versus quantity is the right strategy. I continue to limit exposure to just metals-related equities and the short side of Treasury Notes, Bonds and the U.S. Dollar. Oil has come back down as suspected but is not yet close to becoming a buy again. So as of this writing, the following stocks are buys:

Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK-ALNET $5.92 ) Hit long-term support earlier today and bounced off it. I bought shares at $5.75. The sell-off in mining shares has caused some fairly serious short to intermediate technical damage that won’t be fully repaired in a day, week or even a month. But many stocks like NAK have come back to some very strong areas of support and appear to have far more reward than risk at these levels.

I think it’s just reaching to try and tie any of the weakness to Gov. Palin’s exit, stage left. The difficulty is the stock is no longer driven by drill results (how much more metal would one need anyway?) and has not moved onto the next stage of development of permitting and feasibility.

Please stop sending me emails on why and/or when is someone going to buy NDM out. There’s zero reason for me to think anything else other than what I always have – it’s a question of when, not if NDM is taken out. At the end of the day IMHO it’s in Anglo’s best interest to take out NDM and not have to deal with another major as a partner. There’s just no reason for them to rush, especially when the share price isn’t anywhere close to a fair valuation any buyer is going to have to offer since NDM is so tightly held. Hence, any interested party has time on their side and can deal with paying retail if and when someone finally pulls the trigger. That’s okay with me as once again the share price is back at no-brainer levels.

PST-NYSE $54.39 and TBT-NYSE $48.35 are both buys now at today’s price. The whole argument of higher interest rates down the road that one could swallow a week ago isn’t no longer valid simply because the market price of the securities changed this past week is silly. That line of thinking is what’s so common among the public and sadly the so-called professional community. Was I jumping and doing cartwheels when prices were higher? I think not. So why should I change gears if the same picture remains in front of my eyes but only the price of the stock changed? That’s like making different decisions on where a horse or human is during the course of a race. The only position that matters is where they are at the finish line. Most people lose in the markets because their yardstick is not some vast long term fundamental and/or technical argument but merely the price of some stock or market and the regular ups and downs tells them if it’s a good thing or a bad thing day to day.

While gold and silver can remained pressured until September (when its seasonally weak period ends), those who don’t own any precious metals should use this period of time to establish exposure to an asset class that has managed to work for a couple of thousands years and should continue to do so for whatever time is left in this world.

Vehicles like GLD, SLV and CEF are great ways to gain that initial exposure. Gold’s 200 Day M.A. is near $890 and I suspect the gold cartel is gunning to take it out. One can only breathe easy again when we get above $940 on gold and stay there and/or we’re in September and jewelry fabricators are back in full swing.

Like NDM, I think the next three stocks are all takeover targets and are now at compelling speculative buy levels.

Nevsun Resources (NSU-Altnet $1.14 ) I had a discussion with a very credible Nevsun/Eritria expert who strongly suggested Nevsun’s expected financing is not being held up for anything major but some social programs that needed to be refitted before the financing can take place. This incredible project of less than two-year payback has to IMHO put NSU on the takeover block if and when the financing is completed. The fact that NSU’s current management isn’t exactly the “best of the best” is also what has likely led to some concern and a feeling of skepticism that they can do what’s needed to get NSU to the next level. I agree that’s a legitimate concern but this project is so awesome even this far less than perfect management team can get it over the line. The fact that they’re who they are actually makes the takeover possibilities stronger than if a better team was at the helm.

Continental Minerals (KMK-TSX-V $.98) – One of the better copper-gold deposits in the world today. With China’s thirst for copper a need one can expect for years to come, large-scale projects like this in their very own back yard are strong takeover targets. Stay tuned.

Taseko Mines (TGB-Altnet $1.44 ) Fundamentals have actually improved IMHO since I first put the stock in the portfolio (and before they became a client of Grandich Publications). The company has been paying down debt, arranging a better stream of price for their copper and is aggressively moving hard on forwarding its Prosperity Deposit (an asset many including me believe gets no value in the current share price).

I’m eyeing some possible new bearish bond plays and some additional mining and exploration shares so stay tuned.

Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Natural gas, Northern Dynasty, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, Taseko Mines, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, world economy | 22 Comments »

Update June 27, 2009 11:00AM DST

Posted by Peter Grandich at 10:49 AM on Saturday, June 27th, 2009

“We live in a fantasy world, a world of illusion. The great task in life is to find reality.” Iris Murdoch

Back in October, 2007, I became profoundly bearish in part because I felt the markets were living in a fantasy world that was set to crumble. Despite the worse financial crisis in the modern era that has left poor Uncle Sam broken and on life support, I find the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on Wall Street once again leading what’s left of sheep investors to the wool factory.

It doesn’t seem to matter that literally hundreds of millions of investors worldwide have suffered horrific harm that many can never fully recover from. The very so-called experts whose very job was to prevent the unthinkable from happening are once again wearing blinders and holding their noses while making their prognostications.

This is unlike any other time. To compare this to past recessions, markets, etc., is just plain foolish. It’s beyond extraordinary times. We’re in unchartered waters and have undertaken actions we’ve no real idea what the results are going to be. Yet, most of the financial services industry is right back where they left off, hoping their clientele consider what has taken place as just a bump in the road. The ultimate audacity of these “happy” people has been an ad run by Morgan Stanley/Smith Barney. They’re are urging investors to use their services as they “Rethink Wealth Strategies.” Why do you rethink something? Because your original thought failed! I’m truly a shame to be part of an industry that can’t even admit it was wrong at the absolute worse time. Shame on them!

With two major holidays in North America upcoming, window dressing into months end, and a key U.S. economic release at weeks-end, market moves over the next week may not represent the truer longer-term direction.

U.S. Stock Market – The $64,000 question is are we witnessing consolidation, a correction or market top? My technical work suggests we’ve not witnessed the birth of a new bull market. At best, the DJIA could get to 10,500 and we see several years of a market locked in a wide trading range of DJIA 6,500 – 10,500. The more likely scenario for me is we work our way back to the lows in 2010 and then flat line for the foreseeable future. But I also see a Giants/Jets Super bowl so I’m the ultimate dreamer.

Precious Metals – The $940 area on gold appears to be the “Battle of the Bulge”. Someone or group has seemingly drawn a line in the sand there and doesn’t want us bulls to get across it and stay there. Who could that be? Hmmm. Commercial traders on the Comex have clearly become more bullish the last two weeks based on the COT Report so who else is there? Hmmm. I’ve stated $940 is a key technical point and Friday’s trading clearly proved that. It took trading in the Access market to get gold below $940. Who on earth would be so aggressive on a summer Friday afternoon? Hmmm.

Base Metals – A trading range is the most likely scenario going forward and with most base metals at or near their upper range, I would withhold any new capital into base metals until they move closer to the bottom of their range.

Oil – I suggested a couple weeks ago that only very sophisticated traders could consider some bearish call spreads on oil and oil stocks on a belief that oil had reached its highs and could correct back to the 50s if we close below $68. I continue to like that idea.

U.S. Dollar – Despite one of the biggest oversold technical readings in years, the mortally wounded U.S. Dollar couldn’t even managed a countertrend rally back to the 83 area on the U.S. Dollar Index. Much of that oversold condition has been corrected so don’t be surprised now to see a resumption of the decline to below 78 on the Index. Poor Uncle Sam, he’s dead only no one has the decency to put him out of his misery. At least some of his former friends around the world are calling for him to be retired as their leader and allowed to die gracefully.

Opportunity is about to knock again in the Treasury market. If the 10yr. gets below 3.5%, I would add to or make new short positions in the 10 and 30-year.

Model Portfolio – I’ve updated my model portfolio and am making the following recommendations to it:

Sell IRC, FNX, HWP and NCU on Monday. While they all can go higher for the rest of the year, I continue to believe the huge gains achieved in them in a relative short period of time would be best served by going into the official win column. The portfolio has had tremendous gains and with expectations of tough times for several years to come, I believe these gains will put followers in a very good position to act when others won’t be able to (or can’t bring themselves to).

On the buy side, I continue to like:

NAK between $6 ¼ -7 NAK recommended on BNN
KMK up to $1.20
NSU (I bought shares this past week up to $1.25 U.S.)
TGB up to $2

Posted in A Grandich Company, All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Nickel, Northern Dynasty, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, Taseko Mines, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, world economy | 17 Comments »

BMO Research Report on Taseko Mines Available

Posted by Peter Grandich at 10:05 AM on Friday, June 26th, 2009

BMO Research is initiating coverage of Taseko Mines with an Outperform rating. Taseko is a copper and molybdenum producer with operations and projects located in British Columbia, Canada. Taseko is an expanding copper dominated producer expected to produce 35,000t in 2009, increasing to over 45,000t in the next two years. Relative to its copper peers, Taseko trades at a discount on a number of metrics. The recently strengthened balance sheet and low-cost growth make the stock appealing. Profit over the next year is forecast to more than triple to US$60M in 2010, with the shares currently trading at an attractive P/E of 4.3x and an EV/EBITDA of 2.2x.

You can obtain a copy of the full report by emailing BrianBergot@Tasekomines.com and request copy

Posted in A Grandich Company, All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Precious Metals, Silver, Taseko Mines, US Stocks | 12 Comments »

Short Update

Posted by Peter Grandich at 10:42 AM on Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009

I’m closing on my new home today (in a 55 and over communityand my 88 year old mom will come live with us). I feel like its my last home but only God really knows.

Please note I simply can’t answer emails and phone calls. Post your questions on blog as I try to take them all in and respond in my updates when possible. You also need to read recent past posts and comments as your question may have already been answered there.

I continue to see very significant technical weakness in the U.S. stock market and oil. Gold has even broken some support and could dip below $900. Best to wait for a close above $940 before going long gold.

I’ve yet to buy my NSU shares as with further gold weakness it can come back to around $1 U.S. The only stocks on model portfolio that I currently rank a buy are:

NDM between $6 1/4 – $7

KMK up to $1.20

TGB up to $2

NSU on the cheap

I would consider HBM-TSX again close to $6

Exclusive video on how the Obama administration figured out how to handle financial meltdown

Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Nickel, Northern Dynasty, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, Taseko Mines, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, world economy | 14 Comments »

Update 9:00PM DST

Posted by Peter Grandich at 9:00 PM on Tuesday, June 16th, 2009

In normal times we could expect the “summer doldrums” to set in just about now and hang around until after Labor Day. But these are no ordinary times. In fact, the mistake being made by many is to approach markets like one has in the past. Throw out most history books as what’s unfolding here in America is unlike anything ever in our history.

It would be hysterical if it wasn’t truly shameful regarding a financial ad that has been full pages in several different publications. A well-known financial services firm is urging investors to use their services because they’re “rethinking their wealth strategies”. I’m not kidding. Translation – We totally screwed up and changed millions of people lives for the worse but since we can’t say we were wrong we’re going to go with “rethinking”. Unlike when we were kids, there are no do over’s in the financial arena (unless of course you qualify for a bail-out).

To those investors who continue to entrust their finances to so-called experts whose job it was to protect their assets but instead lost them, the only advice I can give you at this time is an old saying:

“Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me”.

U.S. Stock Market – While the “happy” crowd will surely say this is just a correction in a new bull market, the technicals strongly suggest distribution to me. I remain fully confident that we were fortunate to greatly participate in the greatest bear market rally of all-time and any substantial rally from here should at best get to DJIA 10,500, a point where I would almost certainly become an aggressive shorter again. Free falls are behind us and the real tough pains of a grinding bear market lies ahead. I expect we’re going to see several years of a wide trading range whereupon one needs to learn how to save their firepower for special situations only. The days of being fully invested are gone with buy and hold for the long term.

10yr. and 30yr. Treasuries – After nearly doubling from 2% to 4%, the 10yr. has seen some deserving profit-taking. A break below 3.50% would be a gift to go short. The world realizes America has gone way pass the line of no return. History’s biggest debt junkie has no clothes.

U.S. Dollar – The countertrend rally continues and as expected is overall weak and little more than a consolidation of the big decline we enjoyed. The 83-84 area on the U.S. Dollar Index should be the best this blip up can achieve in a long-term avalanche down to new lows in the next 12-18 months. We could stay in a fairly tight trading range for now so let poor Uncle Sam catch a breather before resuming his “Dead Man Walking”.

Oil – Starting to get some fairly significant technical sell signals based on some momentum indicators I’ve developed over the years. We could see oil back in the 50s on a close below $68 so stay tuned. This is not a signal to go short as I remain very bullish long term.

Precious Metals – While gold has been moving sideways, a significant amount of increased bearishness has become evident. Predictions of much lower prices down to $300 are becoming daily events. This is exactly what gold needs to finally have a strong enough base to get above $1,000 and stay there. My only concern for now is we’re now in the most seasonally weak period for gold (Until September). So long as we stay above $925 we’re okay. If we break below we could see $850 but regardless I fully expect to hold most if not all current positions (and would likely add if we got that low again).

Base Metals – I’ve noted of late that base metals have basically reached their upper levels and because I don’t believe we’re going to have strong economic growth any time soon, there was no reason to first start buying them. I do believe the lows are in so one should just use sustained weakness for buys until further notice.

Stocks to Consider from Model Portfolio – In recent times I’ve advocated taking profits and build a war chest of cash but keep a core holding of metals related plays. Most open positions are holds but a few speculative (gambling) plays remain on the suggestion list. They’re:

Northern Dynasty Minerals ** The technical’s have turned short-term bearish so the best approach at the moment appears to make any new purchases between 6 ½ – 7 U.S. There’s super support in the low 6’s so if gold does break down somewhat that short-term adversity could create another great buying opportunity for NDM.

Nevsun Resources – The $1.05 – $1.20 area U.S. would be a gift buying zone IMHO. Again, we would likely need a sell-off in gold to get that low but I wouldn’t look a gift horse in the mouth if that happened.

Taseko Mines ** Everything I know at this moment on the company allows me to sleep quite well. Here too any metals sell-off would create a gift opportunity to accumulate more.

Continental Minerals – The riskiest of these four but never-the-less a great asset play. I’m very biased due to my personal equity position and the fact that I’m engaged by other companies that share the same management team.

** Both NDM and Taseko were first part of the model portfolio but became clients of Grandich Publications afterwards. While I have kept them on my model list because of this, please note the inherited risks in our disclosure.

In the last week or so, I spoke of oil being toppy and suggested high risk speculators/gamblers should consider some bearish call spreads on oil and oil stocks. I still think that’s a fair gamble.

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