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Market Update 10:30AM EST

Posted by Peter Grandich at 10:32 AM on Saturday, August 22nd, 2009

Summer is almost gone and two of the most volatile financial market months will be upon us. While seasonal factors tend to be overblown at times, having respect for what September and October can bring is very worthy both for hurricane and market watchers. Given what world markets have gone through, investors are advised to keep one eye on the weather channel and the other one on Bloomberg, Fox Business or Canada’s Business News Network. As always, red flags fly whenever it comes to CNBC-TV.

Come October, it will be twenty-five years since I first began publishing the Grandich Letter. Despite thankfully being blessed to have foreseen the three biggest market falls in 1987, 2000 and 2007, I don’t ever make the assumption markets are going to act in the manner I believe they should. After all, we all know when we assume we usually end up making an Ass-U-Me. The days of being a legend in my own mind are long gone (thank God) and the mental and financial beatings I endured for that will forever remind me that there are really only three types of investors:

1 – Bulls
2 – Bears
3 – Pigs

The bulls and bears will each have their days but the pigs always end up going to the slaughterhouse.

Having CNBC-TV as the world’s largest slaughtering house for pigs is more than enough.

U.S. Stock Market – The “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on Wall Street has had a great spring and summer. More importantly, they’ve managed to once again make like the recent past never took place and instead have their followers count “green shoots” when falling asleep. This is always evident whenever you watch that financial network who back at the top of the Internet bubble “boldly” stated in an ad about them that they “apologized for putting investors into a higher tax bracket.”(I’ll bet their video vault has lost those tapes among many others.)

While yours truly “crossed over” to their side in early March (causing my perma-bear friends to “persona-non-grata” me), I now am more like “Switzerland” in that I’m neutral (but will not give up any names to the “happy” people of who joined me).

IMHO, we’re in the eye of a storm that in the end will have forever changed the United States for the worse. The beginning of the end is more than just underway. But, like any good first act, an intermission has come allowing the audience to fully grasp what they just saw. The dimming of the lights that will signal the next act is yet to come. We’ve enjoyed the refreshment break and tucked away many goodies that should get us through what looks to be a much longer, albeit somewhat less pronounced, second act.

I continue to believe there won’t be another similar selling opportunity like we enjoyed in October 2007 until such time as the DJIA hits the 10,500 area. With visions of grandeur again for good economic times ahead, I would make sure your bear suit has been cleaned and pressed as our “curtain” call may come sooner than we think.  Stay tuned.

U.S. Dollar – Back when the U.S. Dollar Index traded well north of 100, I began to make a statement that I repeated over and over again. It needs to be said constantly because whenever these little blip up opportunities come from very oversold conditions, the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on Wall & Broad will come out like clockwork and declare the U.S. Dollar undervalued. That statement is again worth repeating after yet another short-term interruption in the dollar’s march to oblivion:  “The only party that doesn’t know the U.S. Dollar is dead is the U.S. Dollar.”

The dollar has had reasons to rally despite the market turning upside down a long standing factor that was once quite dependable. In the “good old times,” a stronger economy meant rising interest rates which usually coincided with a rising U.S. Dollar. In the “New World Order,” the U.S. Dollar is a lose-lose. Stronger economy means less need for it as a supposed “safe haven” play. Weaker economics mean low interest rates translating into less demand for the dollar.

Poor old Uncle Sam. The glory days are gone. Other than some temporary relief rallies (believe it or not, we just had one), the dollar’s long-term path is a slow march to death. Only one song should come to mind when you think of the dollar long-term.

10 and 30 Year Treasuries – My no-brainer pick for 2009 has given back some of the nice gains but IMHO, as given those not yet on the short side a chance to position themselves. While the “happy” crowd believes in having your cake and eating it too, you can’t have stock markets rising on better days ahead yet interest rates falling making bonds a buy, too.

In addition to being bearish on longer-term treasuries, I’m starting to look at turning bearish on corporate bonds as well. Stay tuned.

Oil – While day-to-day fundamentals beg some sort of bearish call spread(s) and/or short positions in oil, the “happy” crowd has taken hold and fundamentals rarely matter to them. A falling U.S. Dollar and a belief all will be well again economically seemingly are all that matter at the moment. Like 10,500 or so on the DJIA, the $85 area on oil would be a dream-come-true selling opportunity.

Natural Gas – Despite a continuous questioning of why I wasn’t bullish on natural gas, especially when I was aggressively bullish on oil from well under $40, I maintained my bearish position on natural gas until now. Price wise, it was a very good move but natural gas equities rose with the rest of the market making my eventual entry into the bullish camp tougher as many of the equities will be far from undervalued.

Who said this game is as simple as buying low and selling high?

The CFTC is widely expected to introduce stricter position limits for non-physical investors in commodities before the end of 2009. Such an act should seriously curtail one of the driving forces currently lifting oil prices. A combination of this and an oil price $10 or so higher in the next couple of months could present a superb selling opportunity, so let’s put on those CNBC (Can Never Be Cautious) pom-poms and cheer oil on for now.

Precious Metals – In 25 years, I’ve never seen an investment perform as it was intended to yet receive little praise (and much dismay) as gold has. Throughout 2008 and early 2009, many in the media questioned why gold was not performing well given the so-called market conditions for it. Forgive me, but I suspect any and all investors who lost money in the more “touted” plays like stocks would gladly take what gold was up versus their own losses in those great blue chip stocks.

Now gold’s supposed inability to go much higher if not fall dramatically is being bantered about and such talk is not limited to the usual anti-gold crowd. This is music to my ears as after nearly increasing 300% this decade, such a great bull run usually doesn’t end in a whimper but instead a busting of over enthusiasm – something we’re not even remotely close to.

Gold’s seasonally weak period ends in a few weeks. Any and all selling bouts are quickly met with strong physical buying. Central bank sales, once the darling of all carrots dangled by the bears, has little or no impact any more on the price. A tremendously long-term bullish reverse head and shoulders pattern is setting gold up for its next leg up. A four-digit gold price is not a question of if, but when. Not too long after that, the lowest four-digit price should become the floor, not the ceiling.

Base Metals – I believe the time should soon be here again to overweight in precious metals equities over base metals. This is not because I expect a sharp fall in base metal prices but rather the belief we’re about 10% higher from levels that would be fully priced for most base metals IMHO. An example would be $3+ copper. I would greatly limit any new exposure to copper and copper-related investments much north of $3 and would even consider becoming a scale-up seller. That’s still a ways off and we’ll worry about that bridge when we come to it, but not before.

In the meantime, current base metal prices do still offer opportunities in base metal equities but no longer with the wild abandonment they did six to nine months ago.

I was asked on Friday, “If you could buy only one stock, what would it be?” I gave my answer through my mouth, heart and pocket by saying it would be Continental Minerals, symbol KMK on the Toronto Stock Venture Exchange (KMK $1.17 OTC Bulletin Board KMKCF $1.09). It’s now by far my largest holding. The company is managed by the Hunter-Dickinson Group who I believe is the premier junior to emerging-producer management group in the world today. While I don’t presently work for KMK, I do work for other companies managed by HD.

In my heart of hearts, I can’t see them remaining independent much longer. This is a natural for a buy-out whether it’s by a current Chinese company that owns 14% of KMK and/or one or more other Asian-based companies. There have been rumors of such and management is totally mum (really) on this. The deposits are among the best known in the world today and a takeover price of at least twice the current one is not far-fetched.


Special Note of Interest – With the 8th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks nearing, the media will do its usual reporting. Unfortunately, the real story of America’s biggest tragedy will hardly be discussed: the 40,000 Ground Zero First Responders (police, fire, medical, demolition personnel and volunteers) who are now sick, dying or dead because of their 9/11-related illnesses.

I want to invite and encourage you to help me help these true American heroes receive the dignity and support they so much need and deserve by participating and/or supporting the FealGood Charity Ball on September 11th.

As you know, I’ve been truly blessed to work with many current and retired professional athletes through my other business, Trinity Financial Sports & Entertainment Management Company. Several former and current professional athletes will be in attendance at the gala. Attendees will have the once-in-a-lifetime chance to get up close and personal with them, including obtaining autographs and pictures. If you’re not attending but would like to purchase signed footballs from our celebs, send me an email for details on how this can be done.

There’s going to be a very special live auction. As you can see, there are a couple of truly fantastic sports fan items.

Please let me make note of just two:
•    NY Yankees pitcher Brian Bruney is a great, down-to-earth young man who I find both humble and sincere. Brian’s normal appearance fee starts around $7,500. For this great auction package, the winner and three friends will have lunch with Brian then be whisked-off by private transportation to watch a Yankee game from Brain’s personal seats.  I’m taking bids ahead of time and up to the day before the event. I will bid on the highest bidders behalf at the auction. Right now I have a very low bid of $1,600 for this event with Brian.

•   NY Jet Jay Feely, a tremendous golfer who just happened to help lower my golf score this year, will play a round with you and two friends at the exclusive Trump National Golf Club in Colts Neck, NJ. Take the cost of a round for three plus what it’s worth to spend 4+ hours with Jay and make a bid ASAP.

Help turn the 8th anniversary of America’s darkest day into a brighter one.

Left – Grandich and Bruney  Right – Grandich and Feely        

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Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Natural gas, Nickel, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, Taseko Mines, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, Vanadium, Zinc, world economy | 23 Comments »

Update 5:30PM EST

Posted by Peter Grandich at 5:34 PM on Wednesday, August 19th, 2009

My model portfolio has been updated.

My trip this past Monday to Atlantic City appeared to have been a most profitable one. I made 12 points, numerous numbers and ended up holding the dice for almost 45 minutes. I also learned at day’s end that my DTO position was sharply up. I had picked a sell/stop early that morning knowing I wouldn’t be looking at a screen throughout the day. Had I been, I likely would’ve sold out my position.

That trip ended up costing me far more than I won on the crap table as I was stopped out of my DTO position today. More in my oil comment.

U.S. Stock Market – Choppy trading through at least Labor Day is expected. While the market has clearly priced in whatever economic rebound we’ve had (if that’s what you can call it), we’re not going straight back down either. Because most retail and low to mid-level so-called professionals use “emotion” as their number one tool, these markets are going to be quite volatile. I find many here are spending far too much time on every single blip up or down and trying to analyze it every which way.

China’s market has broken some key uptrend lines and while a rally back to them is likely, this market bares careful watching. China is not only the engine but the caboose too for the world economy.

U.S. Bonds – Betting against the 10yr. and 30yr. Treasuries has entered a buying zone again (please see model portfolio). I continue to monitor some potential vehicles that bet on the short side of U.S. corporate bonds. Stay tuned.

Gold & Silver – Both have retreated back towards strong support zones. With a few more weeks left to gold’s seasonally weak period, I think any buying of these metals should be limited to periods of further weakness. We’ll take a more in-depth look after we get pass Labor Day.

Base Metals – Hard asset bugs won’t like what I’m about to say but I don’t get all hot and bothered when I read that Chinese farmers are stockpiling copper. It would be far better that China was accumulating copper for future industrial usages. History has shown that when any public-at-large gets heavily into any commodity, it’s closer to the top, not the bottom, of that commodity’s price. Technically, copper has big time resistance around $3 so any rally back towards that price appears to be an opportunity to take profits until further notice. This doesn’t mean sell all your copper stocks. It just means no new buying is wise for most accounts.

U.S. Dollar – Poor Uncle Sam.  Even when he’s thrown a bone (technical buy on deeply oversold condition) he can only manage a feeble rally so far. Now we know what walking dead really looks like.

Oil – Today’s inventory drawdown had some special quirks and IMHO is not the start of a mark increase in demand. People who live and breathe oil all say the same thing – there’s ample supply and then some. The weak dollar and visions of grandeur that are presently running through the equities markets is what’s keeping oil prices together.

I’m not going to put any oil ETF in the model portfolio going forward as far too many people have been getting engross in just one little play. I received constant emails and calls asking what’s my latest assessment of the “hour” on oil. This told me far too many people are speculating/gambling who shouldn’t be. And quite frankly, even close friends were hitting me up regularly and there’s more to life than an oil trade-LOL.

Personally, I believe actual fundamentals win out over time so if we have another $2-3 follow through to the upside, I’m likely to go short again. But that’s me – NOT YOU!

Natural Gas – I’m starting to believe we may be presented with an opportunity to go long. I think getting below $3 could be the ticket so stay tuned.

Special Note – AGORACOM tells me we now have tens of thousands of readers. I’ve accepted that not all of them are going to apply for membership in the Peter Grandich fan club and will in fact, make comments that may be unbecoming to some. But as I stated in the past, there’s no need to defend me. I truly believe by doing so you engage these folks and give them a feeling their motive(s) are achieving their goals.

Please don’t confuse these folks with people who give constructive criticism and/or take an opposing view. That’s part of a blog. What you do need to realize is those with other motives could easily just not come here if they wanted. When you see such people continuing to post despite the fact there’s nothing forcing them to be here and could simply just move on, then you have likely found those who have motives other then differences of opinions.

Again, when you engage them you actually give them a sense of credibility they otherwise would not receive. You must remember we’ve tens of thousands of readers now and 99.9% are clearly not of these folks same opinions or else you would hear so. Trust me when I say they show their support privately and that’s absolutely good enough for me!

Finally, to those who write I should go after these people in some fashion, you need to watch this video. It’s just more great advice from the only true authority in the world.

Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Natural gas, Nickel, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, Zinc, world economy | 33 Comments »

Grandich Update 7:00PM EST

Posted by Peter Grandich at 6:50 PM on Thursday, August 13th, 2009

In another few weeks it will be 25 years ago when I published the first Grandich Letter. I was in the financial advisory business a whopping six months and there I was editor and publisher of an investment newsletter. The scariest part is I actually thought I knew what I was talking about. Looking back I can honestly say I actually knew next to nothing (not that I’m that much further along 25 years later).


After enduring what I believe when it’s all said and done will be the worse financial crisis in America’s history, the vast majority of investors are once again buying hook, line and sinker whatever the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy crowd tells them. In a sad irony as we approach the 8th anniversary of the 911 attacks, most Americans act as if the attack and the crisis were just one-time events and life has, and/or will return to the “good old days”.
It’s my belief that we’re in the “eye” of the storm and while both the economy and stock market can improve even from here, such an occurrence is strictly an opportunity for those who stood at the abyss not too long ago to remove themselves from being in such a position again. I would welcome another 10% rise in the stock market as it should give me another opportunity to put on my big bear suit. Thankfully, I took it off just one day from the March lows and had a nice ride up with the “Happy” crowd.

There’s an old saying that I’m sorry to say is highly likely to be said this time next year – “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
U.S. Stock Market – While the “Happy” group has their customary full-court press on in the media, mixed economic results are not giving them a clear green light at the moment. The market was severely overbought so they continue to hold the upper hand. I would like nothing better than for the DJIA to go straight to 10,500 area so I could come out of hibernation but I don’t think it will be that easy. Never-the-less, avoiding a bearish stance has been most appropriate and should continue for the foreseeable future.
Oil – Happy Talk and a soft U.S. dollar is really what’s holding up oil. Fundamentals are quite bearish. There’s ample supply of oil and gas and the driving season is now all but completely behind us. The trade wants to sell cruse down but speculators continue to buy the “hope” trade. Having been killed more than once over 25 years betting on fundamentals and against the hope traders, I will continue to hold one bearish position in oil for now (DTO-NYSE Sell stop at $72.50).
Natural Gas – Seemingly everybody and their mother has been calling for or betting on a big natural gas rally that is almost all-wish and no reality. Ironically, if prices broke below $3 now we would all but certain get a fantastic buying opportunity. Natural Gas is now on my watch list for a possible entry point down the road. Stay tuned.
U.S. Dollar – Did you see the rally-LOL The overwhelming long-term bearish factors are currently preventing a technical bullish rally to evolve. While there’s no bigger U.S. Dollar bear than yours truly, I would wait a few more days before concluding the technical’s don’t stand a chance against the fundamentals.
U.S. Bonds – Corporate bonds are entering a bubble-like pattern given where I think the U.S. is heading economically, politically and socially. I’m starting to look at ways to bet against this market. I remain a growling Treasury Notes and Bonds bear.
Gold – If gold can stay above $940 through months end, I think the bears will run to cover so here’s to their shorts being squeezed right up to their necks!
Base Metals – Starting to get frothy here. Prices are beginning to discount a quite strong economic rebound, an event I don’t believe will come true so we need to start watching the exits. I said watch, not run to.
Taseko Mines had a very good earnings report and didn’t have any real “sell on news” momentum. The stock is now on hold only due to its sharp price increase. Longer term I believe it still has a lot further to go on the upside.


Northern Dynasty Minerals – The opposition to Pebble always seems to get the most press despite having every single action on their part stopped short of their goals. Here’s an article that was kind enough to give voice to the group closes to the center.
Continental Minerals made a new 52-week high today. Stay tuned.

A message from our friends at TOUT-TV

Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Natural gas, Nickel, Northern Dynasty, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, Taseko Mines, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, Uranium, Vanadium, Zinc, world economy | 17 Comments »

Good Read on Natural Gas

Posted by Peter Grandich at 5:36 PM on Thursday, July 23rd, 2009

Read

Posted in All Posts, Natural gas | 24 Comments »

Markets Update 6:00PM DST

Posted by Peter Grandich at 6:01 PM on Friday, July 17th, 2009

For many of us in the Northeast, it doesn’t seem possible to be in the summer doldrums with significantly below average temperatures recently. Never-the-less, the “seasonally” take it easy attitude is upon us as investors rather enjoy the outdoors then deal with the realities of America’s continuing slide to social, political and economic upheaval. So for the very near term – PARTY-ON DUDE!

U.S. Stock Market – Despite an extremely bearish long term outlook, I’ve not recommended any new short positions since two days after the all-time high in the stock market back in October 2007. This has caused some people to question why not?

The main reason is I feel the stock market is going to go into a multi-year trading range between DJIA 6500 and potentially as high as 10,500 (but average around 8500 or below). I don’t expect sharp rises and falls within this perceived trading range and therefore outright puts or calls or long or short ETFs aren’t appealing to me.

A case in point is about two weeks ago. Several readers wrote in to ask why I wasn’t shorting the stock market given I felt the rally towards DJIA 9000 had come to an end? The market was selling off and they thought we were missing a selling opportunity. Within days those inquiries disappeared as we’ve had yet another strong counter-trend rally. I believe this type of whipsawing is going to be here for quite awhile and to try and catch these short but strong moves up and down can only end up being a lost cause.

I do want to suggest as I did when oil hit $70, that when the market gets to the top of my range, implementing bearish call spreads is a worthy consideration for high-risk speculators/gamblers. We’re getting close to that opportunity in the stock market.

Ten and Thirty Year Treasuries – For those who had yet to get short, I do believe we just witnessed a “gift from God’ opportunity the last couple of weeks. For those who continue to think that 1-2% CDs and 3%-4% long term bonds are here to stay for years to come, I’ve a bridge that connects Manhattan and Brooklyn I can sell to you – CHEAP! America is drowning in a sea of debt that continues to rise dramatically. It won’t matter that the economy is weak and therefore bonds are a buy. Interest rates are going to rise sharply due to our enormous borrowing needs and a currency that’s giving “Don’t squeeze the Charmin” a run for its money!


U.S. Dollar – Dead man walking. Watch 78.25 on the U.S. Dollar Index. A close below that level is very bearish. But then again, isn’t everything about poor old Uncle Sam bearish?

Oil – While we did get below $60, the market was deeply oversold and likely now to consolidate above $60 for the near future. The low to mid 50s is still my downsize target for now.

Natural Gas – I’m constantly asked why haven’t I recommended natural gas especially back when I recommended oil in the low 30s? The world is awash in natural gas at the moment. The fundamentals have just not come together for me to do so. Natural gas gets a nice pop every so often as people keep hoping it has to go up sooner or later. I remain neutral.

Precious Metals – Once again gold has hit a wall at the $940 area. But I’ve a feeling this time it’s not going to reverse sharply. I think we’re finally on the threshold of breaking out and a four digit gold price before years-end is more than likely.

I spend extremely little time discussing other forecasters but I can’t help myself in bringing up two who get a lot of press (jealousy is not my reason) but are just simply wrong over and over again. One party writes for a very large bullion dealer and website. The other writes a daily commodities-laden newsletter, spends an awful lot of time in the media, has had his head handed to him again and again when he shorts gold, yet the media calls him a gold authority. Sorry, but the only authority he seems to be is on when not to sell gold. Both these gentlemen are really anti-gold, which in the case of the bullion dealer makes you wonder why they have such an ardent bear as their spokesperson.

Base Metals – I’m truly taken back by copper’s strength. I felt it could trade up to the top of my range of $2.75 but felt that wouldn’t occur until 2010. I won’t look a gift horse in the mouth since my personal portfolio is loaded to the gills with big copper/gold plays.

Geopolitical – I’ve a sneaky suspicion we could see my anticipated Iran/Israel conflict come to the forefront sooner than later. Why? Israel is making a series of military and political moves that I believe is the start of a campaign by them. Iran hardliners meanwhile have found themselves in an internal struggle no one foresaw. You could think that weakens my scenario but I believe it actually strengthens it. A military fight with Israel right now would whip the hardliners up, would be political suicide for Arab countries not to support (although many like Egypt and Saudi Arabia want to see Iran crushed) and would give the Iranian government cover to invoke a major harder crackdown. Unfortunately, stay tuned.

Hear me on radio this weekend

Jersey Shore Seminar less than a month away.

Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Natural gas, Nickel, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, Zinc, world economy | 18 Comments »

Who’s That Knocking At My Door?

Posted by Peter Grandich at 11:13 PM on Wednesday, July 8th, 2009

For several weeks I urged taking profits in many positions in the model portfolio in hopes some big opportunity would come knocking again. During that time some people questioned why sell while the going was so good? I consistently stated I wanted investors to build up a very comfortable position so they could easily take advantage of when the rap on the door returns.

Proving how crazy this prognosticating business can be, now that an anticipated opportunity presents itself to buy below “retail”, the very people who struggled with the thought of selling just a few weeks ago now appear too afraid to buy. I’ve purposely taken serious profits on several fronts these past couple of months so the model portfolio could be in a position of strength to act aggressively if the big opportunity presented itself. I believe it has!

While the current open positions are limited versus several months ago when I took the plunge on the long side aggressively, I’m confident my choice of quality versus quantity is the right strategy. I continue to limit exposure to just metals-related equities and the short side of Treasury Notes, Bonds and the U.S. Dollar. Oil has come back down as suspected but is not yet close to becoming a buy again. So as of this writing, the following stocks are buys:

Northern Dynasty Minerals (NAK-ALNET $5.92 ) Hit long-term support earlier today and bounced off it. I bought shares at $5.75. The sell-off in mining shares has caused some fairly serious short to intermediate technical damage that won’t be fully repaired in a day, week or even a month. But many stocks like NAK have come back to some very strong areas of support and appear to have far more reward than risk at these levels.

I think it’s just reaching to try and tie any of the weakness to Gov. Palin’s exit, stage left. The difficulty is the stock is no longer driven by drill results (how much more metal would one need anyway?) and has not moved onto the next stage of development of permitting and feasibility.

Please stop sending me emails on why and/or when is someone going to buy NDM out. There’s zero reason for me to think anything else other than what I always have – it’s a question of when, not if NDM is taken out. At the end of the day IMHO it’s in Anglo’s best interest to take out NDM and not have to deal with another major as a partner. There’s just no reason for them to rush, especially when the share price isn’t anywhere close to a fair valuation any buyer is going to have to offer since NDM is so tightly held. Hence, any interested party has time on their side and can deal with paying retail if and when someone finally pulls the trigger. That’s okay with me as once again the share price is back at no-brainer levels.

PST-NYSE $54.39 and TBT-NYSE $48.35 are both buys now at today’s price. The whole argument of higher interest rates down the road that one could swallow a week ago isn’t no longer valid simply because the market price of the securities changed this past week is silly. That line of thinking is what’s so common among the public and sadly the so-called professional community. Was I jumping and doing cartwheels when prices were higher? I think not. So why should I change gears if the same picture remains in front of my eyes but only the price of the stock changed? That’s like making different decisions on where a horse or human is during the course of a race. The only position that matters is where they are at the finish line. Most people lose in the markets because their yardstick is not some vast long term fundamental and/or technical argument but merely the price of some stock or market and the regular ups and downs tells them if it’s a good thing or a bad thing day to day.

While gold and silver can remained pressured until September (when its  seasonally weak  period ends), those who don’t own any precious metals should use this period of time to establish exposure to an asset class that has managed to work for a couple of thousands years and should continue to do so for whatever time is left in this world.

Vehicles like GLD, SLV and CEF are great ways to gain that initial exposure. Gold’s 200 Day M.A. is near $890 and I suspect the gold cartel is gunning to take it out. One can only breathe easy again when we get above $940 on gold and stay there and/or we’re in September and jewelry fabricators are back in full swing.

Like NDM, I think the next three stocks are all takeover targets and are now at compelling speculative buy levels.

Nevsun Resources (NSU-Altnet $1.14 ) I had a discussion with a very credible Nevsun/Eritria expert who strongly suggested Nevsun’s expected financing is not being held up for anything major but some social programs that needed to be refitted before the financing can take place. This incredible project of less than two-year payback has to IMHO put NSU on the takeover block if and when the financing is completed. The fact that NSU’s current management isn’t exactly the “best of the best” is also what has likely led to some concern and a feeling of skepticism that they can do what’s needed to get NSU to the next level. I agree that’s a legitimate concern but this project is so awesome even this far less than perfect management team can get it over the line. The fact that they’re who they are actually makes the takeover possibilities stronger than if a better team was at the helm.

Continental Minerals (KMK-TSX-V $.98) – One of the better copper-gold deposits in the world today. With China’s thirst for copper a need one can expect for years to come, large-scale projects like this in their very own back yard are strong takeover targets. Stay tuned.

Taseko Mines (TGB-Altnet $1.44 ) Fundamentals have actually improved IMHO since I first put the stock in the portfolio (and before they became a client of Grandich Publications). The company has been paying down debt, arranging a better stream of price for their copper and is aggressively moving hard on forwarding its Prosperity Deposit (an asset many including me believe gets no value in the current share price).

I’m eyeing some possible new bearish bond plays and some additional mining and exploration shares so stay tuned.

Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Natural gas, Northern Dynasty, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, Taseko Mines, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, world economy | 22 Comments »

A Wealth of Information on BNN Today

Posted by Peter Grandich at 6:58 PM on Thursday, June 11th, 2009

ATW Gold Interview

A rare find these days – an oil bear.

Ever since I turned bullish on oil back in late December, I’m often asked why I haven’t turned bullish on natural gas? You will recall that a key reason for my bullish call on oil was its ability to withstand overwhelming bearish news and actually rise despite widespread bearishness. Unfortunately, natural gas has been unable to do the same. I continue to watch it but for now remain on the sideline.

Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Natural gas, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, US Stocks | 19 Comments »

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