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Update

Posted by Peter Grandich at 4:49 PM on Friday, September 18th, 2009

“I think we consider too much the good luck of the early bird and not enough the bad luck of the early worm.” Theodore Roosevelt

I shall soon celebrate my 25th anniversary of first publishing The Grandich Letter and the one year anniversary of our blog. Much has changed since I first simply typed up my thoughts, gave it to a printer and sent the letter out in the mail. To say that the blog has offered an opportunity to advise and communicate unlike anything imaginable 25 years ago would be an understatement.

U.S. Stock Market – The ways things are going; the next great selling opportunity may come sooner rather than later. I continue to believe we can get to as high as 10,500 on the DJIA and that could IMHO produce the first great selling opportunity for me since October, 2007.

Here are some recent comments of my regarding this:

Market Update 10:30AM EST
Posted by Peter Grandich at 10:32 AM on Saturday, August 22nd, 2009

I continue to believe there won’t be another similar selling opportunity like we enjoyed in October 2007 until such time as the DJIA hits the 10,500 area. With visions of grandeur again for good economic times ahead, I would make sure your bear suit has been cleaned and pressed as our “curtain” call may come sooner than we think. Stay tuned.

Update
Posted by Peter Grandich at 6:42 PM on Saturday, September 5th, 2009

U.S. Stock Market – The bullish argument may have taken a hit of late but it would be unwise to conclude the highs of this bear market rally are in just yet. Make no mistake about it; my stint in the bullish camp is over. However, it’s going to be tough to take the market down substantially from here while economic recovery remains evident in key parts of the world. The “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd may be able to keep those “green shoots” tangling in front of their troops long enough to allow for a 10,000+ number on the DJIA. Again, I want no part of such a “final run” and am extremely comfortable sitting on spectacular returns afforded us these last 24 months. The fact that we continue to profit handsomely from the metals side of things only makes my sideline view easier. If we do get to 10,000 – 10,500, fantastic as it appears it would afford us the best selling opportunity since October 2007.

Grandich Update 7:00PM EST
Posted by Peter Grandich at 6:50 PM on Thursday, August 13th, 2009

U.S. Stock Market – While the “Happy” group has their customary full-court press on in the media, mixed economic results are not giving them a clear green light at the moment. The market was severely overbought so they continue to hold the upper hand. I would like nothing better than for the DJIA to go straight to 10,500 area so I could come out of hibernation but I don’t think it will be that easy. Never-the-less, avoiding a bearish stance has been most appropriate and should continue for the foreseeable future.

Update – Saturday August 8, 2009 10:30AM
Posted by Peter Grandich at 10:26 AM on Saturday, August 8th, 2009

While consolidation and corrections are likely in the short to intermediate term, I continue to believe it will be at least months before this super countertrend rally runs its course. Who knows, Congress may even carry President Obama down the aisle at the next State of The Union before the eye of the storm passes.

Grandich Update 2:30PM EST
Posted by jojo at 2:25 PM on Sunday, August 2nd, 2009

I said in my July 17th update the attitude is to “Party on dude” and ignore the real problems for now. In my July 24th commentary, I noted we should not expect any bear sightings until at least the fall. I noted the technical picture had improved as well.

It would be foolish to suggest from a technical outlook that the stock market is not technically strong at the moment. These are quite bullish formations and while they show the markets to be overbought, there’s no argument to be made that they suggest any serious declines for the foreseeable future. Technically, these charts suggest at the moment another 10% higher before any good selling opportunity presents itself. Ideally, it would be great if we went straight up to those levels without any meaningful correction as that would almost certainly become a screaming sell.

—————————————————————————————————————————————————
Again I urge you not to let your ample cash position burn a hole in your pocket and make bets simply so you can have one. The bears that have done so since March have had their lunch eaten by the bulls. I think crossing 10,000 could really create a melt up towards 10,500 and that would have all the makings of a terrific selling opportunity.

U.S. Bonds – I’ve been scratching my head trying to figure out how on the one hand the stock market can rally strongly on perceived economic growth but bond prices remain strong in the face of this. The only real answer I can come up with is the bond market has it right on the real story of the economy. I also think this article hits on a key point.
It appears it’s not what the American consumer says that counts but what they actually do that matters, at least when it comes to the bond market.

No matter what the real story is or isn’t regarding the economy, the death march of the U.S. Dollar and the out of sight debt load of the United States and its citizens is a one-way ticket to higher interest rates down the road. It’s financial suicide IMHO to lock in 10-30yr. Treasury yields at these levels.

U.S. Dollar – I don’t know what else I could say that I haven’t already said the last few years from well over 100 on the U.S. Dollar Index – the only party that doesn’t know the U.S. Dollar is dead is the U.S. Dollar. Yes, there will be countertrend rallies and the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd will hail them as the umpteen new dollar bull market, but the long term trend down to new lows in the Dollar Index is a question of when, not if in my book.

My favorite currency from North of the border continues to perform well. I continue to note how well off Canada is fiscally versus its sick and broke neighbor to the south. My target of parity from under 80 is now in sight.

Oil – Its trading range is shrinking suggesting that another significant move is in the making. That’s the easy part. The tough part is which way? Oil continues to be supported not by true fundamentals of supply versus demand but by a weakening U.S. Dollar and a perceived worldwide economic rebound underway.

While I won’t go long until if and when it has a 5 in the front of its price ($50 -$59.99), I also have stated that I won’t go short unless it can get near $85

Natural Gas – I removed my bearish hat when it broke below $3 and began to look for an entry point. I apparently missed it so far as we’ve had a big bounce thanks in part to a short squeeze and money looking for an investment area that hadn’t run up. The key now is to measure the consolidation and the degree of any retreat to see if the bottom has actually been put in. Stay tuned.

Precious Metals – Silver has been far more precious than gold this year and can remain so for the balance of 2009 given the current demand for it on the industrial side of things. Both should work their way higher together.

We all know there’s a tremendous Commercial short position on the Comex and almost always they get their way with a sell off by the speculative longs. While this time it shouldn’t be any different, the question is from what price level – here or closer to $1,035? Regardless of where this takes place or even if, this matters zilch in the long-term scheme of things. The key is to realize we remain in a secular bull market for gold and silver and another leg up has begun.

Base Metals – While there’s no reason to run to the exit doors at this time, I do believe my notation a few weeks back that they should under-perform gold and silver going forward remains the same. There’s still opportunity within base metal stocks but I strongly suggest being over-weighted in precious metals plays going forward.

Readers are asking a very good question when they inquire if the stock market is a top near 10,500 can mining and exploration shares top out as well. There is that possibility but I don’t think we need to get concern about it until such time it comes – if at all.

Model Portfolio Comments

Northern Dynasty Minerals – As much as I love the project before and after working for the company, I can’t deny the shares have greatly underperformed most of its peers. I think the main reason is two-fold. The first is the groups who have come out against the Pebble. While none of their attempts have been remotely successful in blocking its development, the amount of media attention they have gathered has put an undeserving cloud over the stock. The fact that the company doesn’t promote the stock heavily also plays into the hands of the opposition. That may sound crazy given the fact that they hired me to help in that area but given the size and breath of this project, it would be unfair to say it’s greatly promoted.

The question why it isn’t may be key. IMHO management has concluded they have the goods. They have a deal with Anglo that’s highly favorable to them. I truly believe they believe it’s only a question of when, not if they’re taken out. I also think it’s been a wise decision of theirs to limit promotion so not to play into the hands of the opposition. This is indeed frustrating but given the fact I’ve gone this far in the process, there’s no reason to get off the train when it’s closer now to pulling out of the station than ever before.

Evolving Gold – Brand new to my list, I think it’s a strong speculation/gamble. As always, speculation really means gambling and when speculating/gambling, one must be prepared to lose part or all their capital.

Grandich Clients

ATW Gold – Further to my update, ATW put out this release earlier today. As much as one would like it to, the company can’t turn around on a dime. There’s little doubt it can before it can demonstrate it can fix its production situation. If and when it does, the market can gain confidence again. A good and fair question would be what if it can’t fix it profitably? One should consider what’s the company worth without Burnakura? $.25 – $.30? The market appears to be starting to price that in.

I hope to see some of you at the Toronto Investment Conference next weekend.

I will be on BNN’s “Market Call” next Friday at 1PM EST

Posted in A Grandich Company, All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Natural gas, Nickel, Northern Dynasty, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks | 18 Comments »

See You In September

Posted by Peter Grandich at 8:20 AM on Saturday, August 29th, 2009

The Toronto Resource Investment Conference could not come at a better time. We could be off to the races in gold by then. You can save the $20 admission fee by registering as my guest with promo code PGT9 I will be hosting a special Q & A workshop immediately after the show closes.

I will be on Business News Network’s “Market Call” Friday September 25th

Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Natural gas, Nickel, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, Uranium, Vanadium, Zinc, world economy | 2 Comments »

Market Update 10:30AM EST

Posted by Peter Grandich at 10:32 AM on Saturday, August 22nd, 2009

Summer is almost gone and two of the most volatile financial market months will be upon us. While seasonal factors tend to be overblown at times, having respect for what September and October can bring is very worthy both for hurricane and market watchers. Given what world markets have gone through, investors are advised to keep one eye on the weather channel and the other one on Bloomberg, Fox Business or Canada’s Business News Network. As always, red flags fly whenever it comes to CNBC-TV.

Come October, it will be twenty-five years since I first began publishing the Grandich Letter. Despite thankfully being blessed to have foreseen the three biggest market falls in 1987, 2000 and 2007, I don’t ever make the assumption markets are going to act in the manner I believe they should. After all, we all know when we assume we usually end up making an Ass-U-Me. The days of being a legend in my own mind are long gone (thank God) and the mental and financial beatings I endured for that will forever remind me that there are really only three types of investors:

1 – Bulls
2 – Bears
3 – Pigs

The bulls and bears will each have their days but the pigs always end up going to the slaughterhouse.

Having CNBC-TV as the world’s largest slaughtering house for pigs is more than enough.

U.S. Stock Market – The “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on Wall Street has had a great spring and summer. More importantly, they’ve managed to once again make like the recent past never took place and instead have their followers count “green shoots” when falling asleep. This is always evident whenever you watch that financial network who back at the top of the Internet bubble “boldly” stated in an ad about them that they “apologized for putting investors into a higher tax bracket.”(I’ll bet their video vault has lost those tapes among many others.)

While yours truly “crossed over” to their side in early March (causing my perma-bear friends to “persona-non-grata” me), I now am more like “Switzerland” in that I’m neutral (but will not give up any names to the “happy” people of who joined me).

IMHO, we’re in the eye of a storm that in the end will have forever changed the United States for the worse. The beginning of the end is more than just underway. But, like any good first act, an intermission has come allowing the audience to fully grasp what they just saw. The dimming of the lights that will signal the next act is yet to come. We’ve enjoyed the refreshment break and tucked away many goodies that should get us through what looks to be a much longer, albeit somewhat less pronounced, second act.

U.S. Dollar – Back when the U.S. Dollar Index traded well north of 100, I began to make a statement that I repeated over and over again. It needs to be said constantly because whenever these little blip up opportunities come from very oversold conditions, the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on Wall & Broad will come out like clockwork and declare the U.S. Dollar undervalued. That statement is again worth repeating after yet another short-term interruption in the dollar’s march to oblivion: “The only party that doesn’t know the U.S. Dollar is dead is the U.S. Dollar.”

The dollar has had reasons to rally despite the market turning upside down a long standing factor that was once quite dependable. In the “good old times,” a stronger economy meant rising interest rates which usually coincided with a rising U.S. Dollar. In the “New World Order,” the U.S. Dollar is a lose-lose. Stronger economy means less need for it as a supposed “safe haven” play. Weaker economics mean low interest rates translating into less demand for the dollar.

Poor old Uncle Sam. The glory days are gone. Other than some temporary relief rallies (believe it or not, we just had one), the dollar’s long-term path is a slow march to death. Only one song should come to mind when you think of the dollar long-term.

10 and 30 Year Treasuries – My no-brainer pick for 2009 has given back some of the nice gains but IMHO, as given those not yet on the short side a chance to position themselves. While the “happy” crowd believes in having your cake and eating it too, you can’t have stock markets rising on better days ahead yet interest rates falling making bonds a buy, too.

In addition to being bearish on longer-term treasuries, I’m starting to look at turning bearish on corporate bonds as well. Stay tuned.

Oil – While day-to-day fundamentals beg some sort of bearish call spread(s) and/or short positions in oil, the “happy” crowd has taken hold and fundamentals rarely matter to them. A falling U.S. Dollar and a belief all will be well again economically seemingly are all that matter at the moment. Like 10,500 or so on the DJIA, the $85 area on oil would be a dream-come-true selling opportunity.

Natural Gas – Despite a continuous questioning of why I wasn’t bullish on natural gas, especially when I was aggressively bullish on oil from well under $40, I maintained my bearish position on natural gas until now. Price wise, it was a very good move but natural gas equities rose with the rest of the market making my eventual entry into the bullish camp tougher as many of the equities will be far from undervalued.

Who said this game is as simple as buying low and selling high?

The CFTC is widely expected to introduce stricter position limits for non-physical investors in commodities before the end of 2009. Such an act should seriously curtail one of the driving forces currently lifting oil prices. A combination of this and an oil price $10 or so higher in the next couple of months could present a superb selling opportunity, so let’s put on those CNBC (Can Never Be Cautious) pom-poms and cheer oil on for now.

Precious Metals – In 25 years, I’ve never seen an investment perform as it was intended to yet receive little praise (and much dismay) as gold has. Throughout 2008 and early 2009, many in the media questioned why gold was not performing well given the so-called market conditions for it. Forgive me, but I suspect any and all investors who lost money in the more “touted” plays like stocks would gladly take what gold was up versus their own losses in those great blue chip stocks.

Now gold’s supposed inability to go much higher if not fall dramatically is being bantered about and such talk is not limited to the usual anti-gold crowd. This is music to my ears as after nearly increasing 300% this decade, such a great bull run usually doesn’t end in a whimper but instead a busting of over enthusiasm – something we’re not even remotely close to.

Gold’s seasonally weak period ends in a few weeks. Any and all selling bouts are quickly met with strong physical buying. Central bank sales, once the darling of all carrots dangled by the bears, has little or no impact any more on the price. A tremendously long-term bullish reverse head and shoulders pattern is setting gold up for its next leg up. A four-digit gold price is not a question of if, but when. Not too long after that, the lowest four-digit price should become the floor, not the ceiling.

Base Metals – I believe the time should soon be here again to overweight in precious metals equities over base metals. This is not because I expect a sharp fall in base metal prices but rather the belief we’re about 10% higher from levels that would be fully priced for most base metals IMHO. An example would be $3+ copper. I would greatly limit any new exposure to copper and copper-related investments much north of $3 and would even consider becoming a scale-up seller. That’s still a ways off and we’ll worry about that bridge when we come to it, but not before.

In the meantime, current base metal prices do still offer opportunities in base metal equities but no longer with the wild abandonment they did six to nine months ago.

I was asked on Friday, “If you could buy only one stock, what would it be?” I gave my answer through my mouth, heart and pocket by saying it would be Continental Minerals, symbol KMK on the Toronto Stock Venture Exchange (KMK $1.17 OTC Bulletin Board KMKCF $1.09). It’s now by far my largest holding. The company is managed by the Hunter-Dickinson Group who I believe is the premier junior to emerging-producer management group in the world today. While I don’t presently work for KMK, I do work for other companies managed by HD.

In my heart of hearts, I can’t see them remaining independent much longer. This is a natural for a buy-out whether it’s by a current Chinese company that owns 14% of KMK and/or one or more other Asian-based companies. There have been rumors of such and management is totally mum (really) on this. The deposits are among the best known in the world today and a takeover price of at least twice the current one is not far-fetched.

Special Note of Interest – With the 8th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks nearing, the media will do its usual reporting. Unfortunately, the real story of America’s biggest tragedy will hardly be discussed: the 40,000 Ground Zero First Responders (police, fire, medical, demolition personnel and volunteers) who are now sick, dying or dead because of their 9/11-related illnesses.

I want to invite and encourage you to help me help these true American heroes receive the dignity and support they so much need and deserve by participating and/or supporting the FealGood Charity Ball on September 11th.

As you know, I’ve been truly blessed to work with many current and retired professional athletes through my other business, Trinity Financial Sports & Entertainment Management Company. Several former and current professional athletes will be in attendance at the gala. Attendees will have the once-in-a-lifetime chance to get up close and personal with them, including obtaining autographs and pictures. If you’re not attending but would like to purchase signed footballs from our celebs, send me an email for details on how this can be done.

There’s going to be a very special live auction. As you can see, there are a couple of truly fantastic sports fan items.

Please let me make note of just two:
• NY Yankees pitcher Brian Bruney is a great, down-to-earth young man who I find both humble and sincere. Brian’s normal appearance fee starts around $7,500. For this great auction package, the winner and three friends will have lunch with Brian then be whisked-off by private transportation to watch a Yankee game from Brain’s personal seats. I’m taking bids ahead of time and up to the day before the event. I will bid on the highest bidders behalf at the auction. Right now I have a very low bid of $1,600 for this event with Brian.

• NY Jet Jay Feely, a tremendous golfer who just happened to help lower my golf score this year, will play a round with you and two friends at the exclusive Trump National Golf Club in Colts Neck, NJ. Take the cost of a round for three plus what it’s worth to spend 4+ hours with Jay and make a bid ASAP.

Help turn the 8th anniversary of America’s darkest day into a brighter one.

Left – Grandich and Bruney Right – Grandich and Feely

Tags: Brian Bruney, Jay Feely
Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Natural gas, Nickel, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, Taseko Mines, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, Vanadium, Zinc, world economy | 23 Comments »

Update 5:30PM EST

Posted by Peter Grandich at 5:34 PM on Wednesday, August 19th, 2009

My model portfolio has been updated.

My trip this past Monday to Atlantic City appeared to have been a most profitable one. I made 12 points, numerous numbers and ended up holding the dice for almost 45 minutes. I also learned at day’s end that my DTO position was sharply up. I had picked a sell/stop early that morning knowing I wouldn’t be looking at a screen throughout the day. Had I been, I likely would’ve sold out my position.

That trip ended up costing me far more than I won on the crap table as I was stopped out of my DTO position today. More in my oil comment.

U.S. Stock Market – Choppy trading through at least Labor Day is expected. While the market has clearly priced in whatever economic rebound we’ve had (if that’s what you can call it), we’re not going straight back down either. Because most retail and low to mid-level so-called professionals use “emotion” as their number one tool, these markets are going to be quite volatile. I find many here are spending far too much time on every single blip up or down and trying to analyze it every which way.

China’s market has broken some key uptrend lines and while a rally back to them is likely, this market bares careful watching. China is not only the engine but the caboose too for the world economy.

U.S. Bonds – Betting against the 10yr. and 30yr. Treasuries has entered a buying zone again (please see model portfolio). I continue to monitor some potential vehicles that bet on the short side of U.S. corporate bonds. Stay tuned.

Gold & Silver – Both have retreated back towards strong support zones. With a few more weeks left to gold’s seasonally weak period, I think any buying of these metals should be limited to periods of further weakness. We’ll take a more in-depth look after we get pass Labor Day.

Base Metals – Hard asset bugs won’t like what I’m about to say but I don’t get all hot and bothered when I read that Chinese farmers are stockpiling copper. It would be far better that China was accumulating copper for future industrial usages. History has shown that when any public-at-large gets heavily into any commodity, it’s closer to the top, not the bottom, of that commodity’s price. Technically, copper has big time resistance around $3 so any rally back towards that price appears to be an opportunity to take profits until further notice. This doesn’t mean sell all your copper stocks. It just means no new buying is wise for most accounts.

U.S. Dollar – Poor Uncle Sam. Even when he’s thrown a bone (technical buy on deeply oversold condition) he can only manage a feeble rally so far. Now we know what walking dead really looks like.

Oil – Today’s inventory drawdown had some special quirks and IMHO is not the start of a mark increase in demand. People who live and breathe oil all say the same thing – there’s ample supply and then some. The weak dollar and visions of grandeur that are presently running through the equities markets is what’s keeping oil prices together.

I’m not going to put any oil ETF in the model portfolio going forward as far too many people have been getting engross in just one little play. I received constant emails and calls asking what’s my latest assessment of the “hour” on oil. This told me far too many people are speculating/gambling who shouldn’t be. And quite frankly, even close friends were hitting me up regularly and there’s more to life than an oil trade-LOL.

Personally, I believe actual fundamentals win out over time so if we have another $2-3 follow through to the upside, I’m likely to go short again. But that’s me – NOT YOU!

Natural Gas – I’m starting to believe we may be presented with an opportunity to go long. I think getting below $3 could be the ticket so stay tuned.

Special Note – AGORACOM tells me we now have tens of thousands of readers. I’ve accepted that not all of them are going to apply for membership in the Peter Grandich fan club and will in fact, make comments that may be unbecoming to some. But as I stated in the past, there’s no need to defend me. I truly believe by doing so you engage these folks and give them a feeling their motive(s) are achieving their goals.

Please don’t confuse these folks with people who give constructive criticism and/or take an opposing view. That’s part of a blog. What you do need to realize is those with other motives could easily just not come here if they wanted. When you see such people continuing to post despite the fact there’s nothing forcing them to be here and could simply just move on, then you have likely found those who have motives other then differences of opinions.

Again, when you engage them you actually give them a sense of credibility they otherwise would not receive. You must remember we’ve tens of thousands of readers now and 99.9% are clearly not of these folks same opinions or else you would hear so. Trust me when I say they show their support privately and that’s absolutely good enough for me!

Finally, to those who write I should go after these people in some fashion, you need to watch this video. It’s just more great advice from the only true authority in the world.

Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Natural gas, Nickel, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, Zinc, world economy | 33 Comments »

Brief Update

Posted by Peter Grandich at 7:07 AM on Monday, August 17th, 2009

Because I’m going to be out of the office all day and have very limit access to market updates, I want to up my sell stop on DTO-NYSE and also put a target sell price as well. Raise the sell stop to 76.50 and sell the position at 87. This will remain in effect until such time I note differently.

I’m personally looking to buy a few stocks in the model portfolio and clients of Grandich Publications. For now, I’m looking to buy:

Nevsun Resources at $1.40 or under U.S.

Northern Dynasty Minerals under $6 U.S.

ATW Gold under $.50 Cdn

An exact entry point is not known yet. But for those looking to use metals weakness and are aggressive speculators/gamblers, use this as my guideline.

Posted in All Posts, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Northern Dynasty, Oil, Precious Metals, US Stocks | 36 Comments »

Grandich Update 7:00PM EST

Posted by Peter Grandich at 6:50 PM on Thursday, August 13th, 2009

In another few weeks it will be 25 years ago when I published the first Grandich Letter. I was in the financial advisory business a whopping six months and there I was editor and publisher of an investment newsletter. The scariest part is I actually thought I knew what I was talking about. Looking back I can honestly say I actually knew next to nothing (not that I’m that much further along 25 years later).

After enduring what I believe when it’s all said and done will be the worse financial crisis in America’s history, the vast majority of investors are once again buying hook, line and sinker whatever the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy crowd tells them. In a sad irony as we approach the 8th anniversary of the 911 attacks, most Americans act as if the attack and the crisis were just one-time events and life has, and/or will return to the “good old days”.
It’s my belief that we’re in the “eye” of the storm and while both the economy and stock market can improve even from here, such an occurrence is strictly an opportunity for those who stood at the abyss not too long ago to remove themselves from being in such a position again. I would welcome another 10% rise in the stock market as it should give me another opportunity to put on my big bear suit. Thankfully, I took it off just one day from the March lows and had a nice ride up with the “Happy” crowd.

There’s an old saying that I’m sorry to say is highly likely to be said this time next year – “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.”
U.S. Stock Market – While the “Happy” group has their customary full-court press on in the media, mixed economic results are not giving them a clear green light at the moment. The market was severely overbought so they continue to hold the upper hand. I would like nothing better than for the DJIA to go straight to 10,500 area so I could come out of hibernation but I don’t think it will be that easy. Never-the-less, avoiding a bearish stance has been most appropriate and should continue for the foreseeable future.
Oil – Happy Talk and a soft U.S. dollar is really what’s holding up oil. Fundamentals are quite bearish. There’s ample supply of oil and gas and the driving season is now all but completely behind us. The trade wants to sell cruse down but speculators continue to buy the “hope” trade. Having been killed more than once over 25 years betting on fundamentals and against the hope traders, I will continue to hold one bearish position in oil for now (DTO-NYSE Sell stop at $72.50).
Natural Gas – Seemingly everybody and their mother has been calling for or betting on a big natural gas rally that is almost all-wish and no reality. Ironically, if prices broke below $3 now we would all but certain get a fantastic buying opportunity. Natural Gas is now on my watch list for a possible entry point down the road. Stay tuned.
U.S. Dollar – Did you see the rally-LOL The overwhelming long-term bearish factors are currently preventing a technical bullish rally to evolve. While there’s no bigger U.S. Dollar bear than yours truly, I would wait a few more days before concluding the technical’s don’t stand a chance against the fundamentals.
U.S. Bonds – Corporate bonds are entering a bubble-like pattern given where I think the U.S. is heading economically, politically and socially. I’m starting to look at ways to bet against this market. I remain a growling Treasury Notes and Bonds bear.
Gold – If gold can stay above $940 through months end, I think the bears will run to cover so here’s to their shorts being squeezed right up to their necks!
Base Metals – Starting to get frothy here. Prices are beginning to discount a quite strong economic rebound, an event I don’t believe will come true so we need to start watching the exits. I said watch, not run to.
Taseko Mines had a very good earnings report and didn’t have any real “sell on news” momentum. The stock is now on hold only due to its sharp price increase. Longer term I believe it still has a lot further to go on the upside.

Northern Dynasty Minerals – The opposition to Pebble always seems to get the most press despite having every single action on their part stopped short of their goals. Here’s an article that was kind enough to give voice to the group closes to the center.
Continental Minerals made a new 52-week high today. Stay tuned.

A message from our friends at TOUT-TV

Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Natural gas, Nickel, Northern Dynasty, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, Taseko Mines, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, Uranium, Vanadium, Zinc, world economy | 17 Comments »

Short Update 4:30PM EST

Posted by Peter Grandich at 4:31 PM on Monday, August 10th, 2009

Not much to add from weekend update. U.S. stocks are overdue for consolidation/correction but nothing too severe for now.

U.S. Dollar rose as we’re on a short-term buy signal while gold did come off after the weak close Friday. It needs to show strength and hold above $940 for the $1,000+ level to become a real target for 2009.

One could have expected more weakness in oil given the strength in the dollar and weakness in equities so I’m go to raise my DTO sell stop to 72.50.

With the weakness in gold, I think any new purchases in NDM should be at $6 or under and NSU $1.40 or under for now. No need to chase if gold is on the defense for the short-term.

Grandich clients KNP and TMM very active. I think KNP has seen large volume on the supposed takeover bid for Canadian Royalties. TMM has been very undervalued given production nearing and I think/hope the share price is finally catching up to fundamentals.

Special Note – People ask me what does it mean when we say Trinity Financial, Sports & Entertainment Management Company is a Christian-based company. Here’s an indication of what I mean:

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Update – Saturday August 8, 2009 10:30AM

Posted by Peter Grandich at 10:26 AM on Saturday, August 8th, 2009

“For a change, lady luck seemed to be smiling on me. Then again, maybe the fickle wench was just lulling me into a false sense of security while she reached for a rock.” Timothy Zahn

Was it just me or did anyone else hear this music throughout the day yesterday on Wall & Broad? Imagine what will they say if we ever actually have job growth again!

While some of you may get caught up in the day to day, week to week and even month to month movements of the markets, I believe it will be critical not to get caught in this eye of the storm. Yes, I’ve noted my belief that the DJIA could get back to 10,500. But IMHO such a move is a counter-trend rally in a vicious bear market that is going to lead to several years of sub-standard U.S. economic growth overall and a market that should stay in a defined range of 6,500 -10,500 for years to come.

Yours truly is cheering for 10,500. I believe it’s when you will find me back in the bearish camp with fork and knife.

U.S. Stock Market – While consolidation and corrections are likely in the short to intermediate term, I continue to believe it will be at least months before this super countertrend rally runs its course. Who knows, Congress may even carry President Obama down the aisle at the next State of The Union before the eye of the storm passes.

Sitting on the big profits made seems to be burning a hole for some so let me just say again I’m patiently waiting on the sidelines.

U.S. Dollar – Stop the presses! I actually got a technical buy signal on the U.S. Dollar with a potential move back up to 83-84 on the U.S. Dollar Index. Sorry but any thought of this being a “resurrection” is foolish. However, there’s a bullish fundamental argument for a pop.

In the old days before Uncle Sam became terminally ill, the dollar would use economic strength and rising interest rates to its advantage. Old habits can let it try to do so now but don’t expect it to be anything more than you would see at an Old-timers game – flashes of former greatness but reality soon sets in.

10yr. and 30yr.-Treasury Bonds – I noted in last weekend’s update that the past week’s ability for the record treasury auction to go so well was quite strange. It seems the buyers apparently owe “Helicopter Bernie” a big thank you. It looks like the 10yr, wants to challenge key resistance at 4% and while it could hold once or twice more, to me it’s not if but when interest rates are dramatically higher.

Oil – I wish my 88-year old mother had email. She would have been the one person who sent me an email that wasn’t telling me I’m a jerk for making a bearish wager on oil. Despite seemingly being alone on an island, I’m going into next week with my position and a sell stop at 70 on DTO-NYSE, The near-term fundamentals (every once and awhile they can actually matter) continue to show ample supply and demand flat to down. The driving season is over in a couple of weeks. If I’m right about the dollar not weakening much for the short-term, and at least consolidation overdue for equities in general, I believe this “small” wager overall is still worthy at least until 9:31AM Monday.

Gold – It did show weakness against the dollar Friday so it may need to back and fill near term.

Base Metals – While economic strength should underpin most base metals, a little pop in the dollar should give reason to take some profits from the big gains seen recently.

For all you fellow addicts – It’s almost here!

Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, Zinc, world economy | 10 Comments »

Grandich Update 2:30PM EST

Posted by jojo at 2:25 PM on Sunday, August 2nd, 2009

7-30-09-compq

7-30-09spx

7-30-09indu

U.S. Stock Market – I said in my July 17th update the attitude is to “Party on dude” and ignore the real problems for now. In my July 24th commentary, I noted we should not expect any bear sightings until at least the fall. I noted the technical picture had improved as well.

I continue to remain on the sidelines resting on my laurels earned during the last two years. The mistake by many is to feel the “need” to be always on the right side up and down. It’s like horseplayers who bet every race not because each race possesses a horse they think should win but because the races are just there. There’s no requirement for anyone to have to be betting on the market all the time, especially when it appears much safer and surer bets are down the road.

Here’s how I think the market can play out down the road.

The “Happy” people are feeling their oats again even though many former followers are in no shape to eat solid food. They long ago mastered the ability to make mountains out of molehills only this time around it’s a roaring economy from green shoots. The beauty of this 21st century version of Jack and the Beanstalk is the overwhelming numbers of investors (who just six months ago saw themselves staring at the abyss) are accepting economic mediocre in lieu of something much worse. For that, they’re willing to bid up share prices based on the belief that kissing the frog always leads to a handsome prince.

If this is your idea of a handsome prince and princess, party on dude. Me? I’ll just bide my time picking away at other markets and individual plays. I’ve yet to see anyone go broke booking profits. No one seems to care where the profits came from.

Foreign markets – I had been suggesting countries like China and India over the U.S. I think China has become quite frothy again and while it can even add to its heights, I would take profits there if you have them. Cash is not a dirty four letter word in my book.

10yr. and 30yr Treasury Notes and Bonds – What a coincidence! The U.S. Dollar sees a very short blip up while gold is hammered during the record treasury auction last week, only to see the dollar tank and gold rise sharply when the auction ends. How sweet!

We continue to hear so much about foreign buyers not buying our debt like they use to. If that’s true, who is?

I believe you can add much higher interest rates to death and taxes as what’s certain in the future.

Oil – You would think investors would purposely avoid being part of the herd knowing the masses never make real money over time. When I turned bearish on oil in early 2008 well north of $100, I received widespread criticism for that decision from readers. They were all caught up in the peak oil/Goldman Sachs $200 a barrel frenzy. Then at the end of 2008 when I turned bullish on oil in the mid $30s, this blog and my emails was full of reasons why such a choice would turn out wrong.

I’ve received triple-digit number of emails and posts about my latest decision to bet on a decline again in oil prices. And like in the past, this decision of mine flies in the face of the conventional wisdom of the time.

Sorry but the fundamentals overall don’t support higher oil prices IMHO. Yes, a weaker U.S. Dollar can be supportive and the inevitable lighting of the match in the Middle East can be a big bullish factor. However, neither of those two reasons are worthy of a long position by itself. We’re awash in crude and the rally back towards $70 presented an opportunity to make some money on a perceived move back towards the $50s. Time will tell.

U.S. Dollar – Please take off your hats and bow your heads.

Precious Metals – Again the herd appears to have taken the wrong trail. Besides a clear significant increase in bearish public sentiment, we also saw professionals seemingly knocking themselves over to either turn bearish or dismiss their previous $1,000+ predictions. As I said earlier this week, this is the type of action one sees in a secular bull market and a new up leg is near. Go Gold!

Base Metals - So long as the “happy” crowd has the ears of investors (they have help them lose many other important body parts) of bigger and better economic times ahead, and with the near certainty that the U.S. Dollar is heading for a new low in the U.S. Dollar Index possibly before years-end, base metals can see some more upside. But caution is now advised as I believe we’re getting into the upper range of prices. Enjoy it for what it’s worth but don’t marry them going forward.

Attention Seniors.

Posted in A Grandich Company, All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Nickel, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, Zinc, world economy | 35 Comments »