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Short Update

Posted by Peter Grandich at 9:04 AM on Wednesday, November 4th, 2009

I updated model portfolio recommendations. Please note I extended the buy zone on Continental Minerals. The trading pattern continues to suggest heavy accumulation. We now have two business competitors who appear not to like each other and both apparently need what KMK has. I think a $3+ share price is what it would take to get management’s support of a friendly bid. Stay tuned!

The more I look at metal prices and Bisha, the more I love Nevsun Resources. Given what metal prices have done of late, I think $3 or under is relatively cheap for NSU shares. Great Basin Gold remains quite cheap given the big bump up in gold prices.

Friday’s employment number is almost certainly IMHO the key to what the U.S. stock market does for the balance of the year. Any real indication that unemployment is easing should give the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd the ammunition to resume it’s march towards DJIA 10,500+. On the other hand (I never like to hedge but it’s the right choice at the moment), a surprise bump up in unemployment should remove whatever hot air remains under the market and lead to a sharper decline. Friday is key!

The floor I spoke of in gold at four digits is now in. Numerous so-called experts, money managers, investors, etc., were either outright bearish, turned bearish or became weak kneed and looked for a correction when gold was around $1,000. They never got a chance to get back in and now the market has gotten away from them. The natural tendency is to try and talk the gold price back so you can justify not chasing to get back in but that has not been a worthy approach for years in gold. The bears have a gigantic problem. Sorry but I won’t lose any sleep over the anti-gold getting their just dessert.

The U.S. Dollar continues to be long on anticipation of a bear market rally but way short on delivering on it. Again, it needs to get above 78 on the U.S. Dollar Index before we change even our short-term outlook.

I still hope to see oil at $85+ in hopes of getting short again. Natural gas is ho-hum.

I continue to like shorting U.S. Treasuries 10 and 30-yr maturities.

Off to Toronto for BNN tomorrow then Montreal Investment Conference.

Good news for NY Jets fans. They can’t lose this Sunday. Wish I could say the same for NY Giants.

Yankees clinch World Series tonight!

Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Natural gas, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, Zinc, world economy | 50 Comments »

Grandich on TruNews Radio

Posted by Peter Grandich at 5:28 PM on Tuesday, November 3rd, 2009

Listen – Starts around 12 minute mark

Posted in All Posts, Gold, Precious Metals, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, world economy | 4 Comments »

If A Picture Is Worth A Thousand Words

Posted by Peter Grandich at 10:55 AM on Tuesday, November 3rd, 2009

In the face of a rising U.S. Dollar and a vast majority of either outright bearish or weak-knee bulls, gold has just vaulted up to a new, all-time nominal high.The fact that India has already bought half of the entire amount of gold the IMF is selling is definitely a major plus.

The bears are in big, big trouble.

Posted in All Posts, Gold, Precious Metals, US Dollar | 27 Comments »

Model Portfolio Updated. Comments on Some Clients.

Posted by Peter Grandich at 9:14 AM on Monday, November 2nd, 2009

It appears the long suffering gold bears have once again failed in yet another attempt to shake the market lower. While the media remains focus on receiving advice about the future from a few chronic bad forecasters from the past, gold appears like it has all but completed its latest consolidation and ready to challenge $1,100 before years-end. As I said all along – the surprises in gold should mostly be to the upside.

With this in mind, I updated the model portfolio this morning.

In regards to some clients of Grandich Publications:

Formation Capital (FCO-TSX) is so close to finalizing their mine developing package one could taste it. Stay tuned.

Sunridge Gold (SGC-TSX-V) management tells me they’re quite please with their on-going exploration program. The $.60 area appears to be a level those not yet believers can become one at an undervalued entry point.

Timmins Gold (TMM-TSX-V) is perhaps one of the most undervalued companies on my entire list.

Posted in A Grandich Company, All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Precious Metals, Silver, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks | 13 Comments »

Update

Posted by Peter Grandich at 3:18 PM on Wednesday, October 28th, 2009

Markets are quite interesting at the moment. The inevitable stock market correction appears to have finally taken hold. A 5%-10% decline would be the least one would look for as of right now. I wouldn’t yet bet against the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd so I’m quite content on watching this unfold from the sidelines.

Gee, gold options expired today and what do you know gold fell $30+ the last three days. What a coincidence. I suspect we’ll see a bounce in gold followed by some selling to see if the bears can finally do some real damage. Based on their track record up until now, I wouldn’t break into a sweat if you’re long term bullish like me.

The U.S. Dollar is once again trying to get some sort of a counter-trend rally going but needs to get a close above 78 on the U.S. Dollar Index to do so. Even if it does, any rally looks like it should be capped below 84.

I remain neutral on oil and screaming bearish on 10yr. and higher U.S. Treasuries.

I’m going to put a buy again on NSU as this sharp correction from $3.40 just last week seems to have been enough of a correction. I paid up to $2.60 today and will use that as a buy limit.

I’m adding a new recommendation to my model portfolio. Buy East Asia Minerals (EAS-TSX-V $1.78) up to $1.85

Keep a $1.55 buy limit on KMK until further notice. There’s a lot more to this situation than meets the eye so be careful of what you assume is real information from people who may be playing with one or two hands tied behind their backs.

Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Oil, Precious Metals, Silver, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks | 18 Comments »

Update From Vancouver

Posted by Peter Grandich at 11:58 AM on Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

No rain today (tonight is expected to be another story) so hoping to head up to Whistler for the day.

U.S. Stock Market – Yesterday’s late day sell-off was the first of its kind in quite awhile. The market has not had a 10%+ correction since the March lows. We’ll need to watch the next couple of days to see if one has finally arrived. Whether it does or not the market continues to “melt-up” and my target of DJIA 10,500-11,000 remains intact.

U.S. Dollar – In 25 years+ in this business, I can’t recall any single market having such an overwhelming number of bears (95% bears in U.S. Dollar Futures) and not see a reversal of some magnitude. There are just so many legitimate bearish factors continuing to pile up against the U.S. Dollar. The only hope for some counter-trend rally to begin would come IMHO if the U.S. Dollar Index could close above 78. Until such time, the path of least resistance remains down.

Gold – Sorry for the bad language but if you’re a bear you have to be poo-pooing in your pants right about now. Despite widespread bearishness not only from the usual wrong suspects, many former bulls became weak kneed or outright bearish and continue to see the market move away from them. Gold has shown tremendous internal strength by actually self-correcting intra-day by selling off only to come roaring back. Today so far has been no exception. We’re in a secular bull market that has been “stealth-like” and despite being a few dollars from it’s all-time nominal high, gold remains hated and/or ignored by most. I LOVE IT!!!!

Oil - Oil indeed broke out above $76 and has $85+ written all over it. If it can get there with the DJIA also hitting my target, both could become shorts so stay tuned.

U.S. Interest Rates – Going much higher over time!

I’ve met with a few companies so far on my trip and here’s a summary of those meetings as of now:

Effective immediately, I’ve resigned my position with ATW Gold. I’ve said over and over again that management is the key for a junior’s ability to be the one in ten that makes it. While I have considerable personal respect for Graham Harris of ATW Gold, I believe his management team has not done the job. While I believe Graham will try hard to right the ship, the bottom line is they lost the confidence of shareholders, myself and the market in general. I think there are too many others who offer better opportunity at this time and one should recognize this and move on.

I had a terrific meeting with the management of Evolving Gold. Yesterday’s drill results IMHO strongly suggest that they have true home-run potential. I no longer think the question is DO they have something but HOW BIG will it end up? Management agreed with me that they have room for improvement on the corporate communication side of things but don’t let that be a knock against them. Remember, they’re the very same management team which has discovered and is developing what 99% of all other management teams can only dream about. I CONTINUE TO BELIEVE ANYTHING UNDER A BUCK IS AN AGGRESSIVE SPECULATIVE BUY.

Met with Hunter-Dickinson management and had great updates on Farallon, Taseko, Northern Dynasty and Continental Minerals. With great bias I must tell you in all my years associated with HD, I never found them as confident in one of their deals as they are with KMK.

I had an in-depth update on Sunridge Gold. They have all the makings of becoming the next Nevsun. Company is on European road show. I’m told to look forward to lots of news flow.

Must Watch! For all those who make fun of people like me and others that speak openly about the U.S. government’s “Working Group”, I strongly suggest you watch this video.

God Bless!

Posted in A Grandich Company, All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Farallon Resources, Gold, Mining Shares, Nickel, Northern Dynasty, Oil, Precious Metals, Sunridge Gold, Taseko Mines, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, Zinc, world economy | 24 Comments »

Grandich on BNN

Posted by jojo at 5:34 PM on Tuesday, October 20th, 2009

bnn

Peter Grandich today on BNN’s “The Close”  recorded October 20th at 4:15 pm.

Tags: , , , , ,
Posted in All Posts, U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, world economy | 35 Comments »

Things

Posted by Peter Grandich at 10:26 AM on Saturday, October 17th, 2009
  • Watch this video before joining the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd on Wall Street.

Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Precious Metals, Silver, US Dollar, US Stocks, world economy | 8 Comments »

Brief Update

Posted by Peter Grandich at 8:55 AM on Wednesday, October 14th, 2009

The mini “melt-up” in the U.S. Stock Market continues. In 2008, professional money managers and the like were asked, “How come you didn’t get me out?” Now, they’re being asked, “How come you didn’t get me in?” Justifably or not, the U.S stock market continues to rise sharply without any major setbacks. This is causing more people in whether they like it or not. Hitting DJIA 10,000 is only going to intensify this need as the media plays up the event.

My target remains DJIA 10,500 – 11,000. If and when its hit, my plan is to put back on my perma-bear suit. But for now, sit back and watch the “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” crowd do their thing.

The very short-term key (like in hours or a few days) is – you guess it, the U.S. Dollar. It’s now below key support of 76 on the U.S. Dollar Index. A further sell-off should limit or avoid any metals correction but a reversal could bring on a sharper correction. I don’t like to hedge but it’s a coin flip right now so stay tuned.

Lots of emails about Continental Minerals (KMK-TSX-V $1.40). What I can tell you is this:

The latest deal has created lots of interest in Asia. This is a big deal having two different Chinese mining companies taking a major stake in the same company. Both have been playing up their interests in the financial media. I’m told by KMK that Asian institutional interest has gone bonkers since the announcement (You can see it in the big increase in volume). KMK management tells me they’re on a road tour promoting KMK for the first time in quite awhile and key management is heading for China as we speak. Hmmm…

I will be out of the office all next week. I will be interviewed on BNN next Tuesday at 4:15PM EST. I look forward to seeing many of you at Michael Campbell’s conference on October 24th. There will be a special “after-hours” workshop where I will expand on my latest thoughts.

Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Precious Metals, Silver, US Dollar, US Stocks, world economy | 25 Comments »

Things

Posted by Peter Grandich at 7:10 PM on Tuesday, October 13th, 2009

Of all the “claims” I’ve heard from the gold bears/weak-knees bull camp, without a doubt this one today takes the cake:

“…Gold is NOT in a bull market. The dollar is in a bear market…”

Hello? Ah, a declining U.S. Dollar “Is” bullish for gold. It truly amazes me to see how long someone can be wrong and continue to find “innovative” ways of twisting in the wind.

Speaking of the dollar

How to know when gold is at a top? This is hysterically funny!

There’s a correction/consolidation out there so when it comes, rest assured the gold bears/weak knee bulls will say for the umpteen time, gold has topped. At this point, it should be only a pause that refreshes.

I believe it’s fool-hearty to think a diplomatic solution will be reached over Iran.

I’ve written about the political price the U.S. is going to pay for it’s outrageous debt and spending habits.

Commentary on Strathmore Minerals

I’m truly thrilled and grateful for the man upstairs for giving one of the best Christian men I ever met another job in the NFL

The Tyree Family and PG

Posted in All Posts, Base Metals, Copper, Exploration Shares, Gold, Mining Shares, Precious Metals, Silver, Strathmore Minerals Corp., U.S. Economy, US Dollar, US Stocks, world economy | 18 Comments »

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